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Sports CFB Week 4 betting roundup: Mississippi State's an "over" machine

22:02  28 september  2020
22:02  28 september  2020 Source:   thescore.com

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a football player holding a football ball © Sean Gardner / Getty Images Sport / Getty

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Every week during the college football regular season, we'll be recapping all the things you may have missed from a betting perspective.

Here's what stood out after Week 4.

Mississippi State is an "over" machine

A lot of people said the air raid wouldn't work in the SEC. Those people are officially 0-for-1.

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Former longtime Washington State head coach Mike Leach made a statement in his inaugural game at Mississippi State, upsetting the defending champion LSU Tigers 44-34, as a 15-point underdog. Quarterback K.J. Costello threw for a conference-record 623 yards in the win.

SEC totals have seen a spike in recent years as the conference opens it up offensively. However, Leach has set a new precedent. If oddsmakers get lazy with Mississippi State totals, it's over, over, and over from here on out.

Stick a fork in Southern Miss

Southern Miss is on the no-bet list and, frankly, has been there all season. The Golden Eagles kicked off the campaign with a loss to South Alabama as 13-point favorites. A few days later, the head coach quit.

In their following contest, the Golden Eagles (-5.5) lost on the game's final play to Louisiana Tech. Then, this past weekend, Southern Miss was steamrolled 66-24 by Tulane - which blew a 24-0 lead to Navy the week prior.

Mississippi State makes major move up, while Oklahoma and LSU fall in NCAA Re-Rank 1-126

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As if allowing close to 600 yards of offense wasn't embarrassing enough, Southern Miss' effort just wasn't there in Week 4. It's clear this team's mailed it in.

Don't fade BYU

Credit BYU! The program had three weeks off between games and barely skipped a beat in a 48-7 win over Troy. The Cougars posted an eye-popping 664 yards of total offense as they continue to maul the Group of 5; the 41-point win came after BYU crushed Navy 55-3 in the opener.

The Cougars will be able to keep the foot on the pedal virtually all season - they don't play a single Power 5 program.

Expect more blowout wins for head coach Kalani Sitake and Co.

Buy Texas A&M's defense

Texas A&M is notorious for its explosive offense, but it's the defense that won me over in Week 4. Head coach Jimbo Fisher brought back roughly 75% of his defense from last year, and the unit didn't disappoint in its first test.

The Aggies allowed just 3.7 yards per play and one touchdown in a narrow 17-12 win over Vanderbilt. Granted, it was against a far inferior opponent, but Texas A&M has now strangely gone under the total in five straight games dating back to last season.

Feel free to keep playing under the total until the market correctly adjusts.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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