Sports Morning pensions: Investment grade periphery is safe haven

10:05  28 october  2020
10:05  28 october  2020 Source:   bunte.de

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(Bloomberg) - Concerns about the economic effects of the restrictions in public life had the financial markets firmly under control on Tuesday. After a somewhat subdued start to the day, the yields on government bonds continued to decline as investors' risk aversion increased.

Until the close of trading, it was the German government bonds and the Italian government bonds that brought in the greatest price gains. The latest decisions of the Italian cabinet to support the companies affected by the current measures to contain the virus with an additional 5.3 billion euros in benefits had no effect on the movement of BTP returns.

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It remains unclear whether this will increase the refinancing needs of the Italian state again in the current year. The Italian Ministry of Finance recently announced that the refinancing for the current year was 90% complete. A little more than 5 billion euros in additional borrowing should be manageable.

As a result of the price movements on Tuesday, the yields at the long end of the yield curves fell by between three and four basis points - with simultaneous bull flattening. Italian government bond yields, like those on the Iberian Peninsula, moved back towards their all-time lows. For the yield on 10-year paper from Portugal and Spain, the zero line is again within reach.

Portugal/Spanien machen sich auf, für 10 Jahre keine Zinsen mehr zu bezahlen © Bloomberg Portugal / Spain set out to stop paying interest for 10 years.

On Tuesday almost all government bonds from the euro area were perceived as safe havens again. This development will also be due to the fact that a deterioration in the economic outlook and the associated low inflation will prompt the European Central Bank to take additional monetary policy easing measures. A further decline in yields in the coming weeks and months cannot be ruled out, especially in the case of further lockdown-like measures and the lack of vaccinations against the virus infection.

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Presumably, the movement in euro area government bond yields will remain under the spell of news on Wednesday about measures to contain the spread of the pandemic.

Ingo Mainert, CIO Multi Asset Europe of Allianz Global Investors, pointed out in a press conference that a K-shaped recovery in economic activity can be expected. As the Fed and ECB representatives have repeatedly emphasized, an economic recovery will not take place across the board. Some economic segments will remain under pressure.

In Germany, the signs point to further restrictions on public life as in France, where the president will address the French in an evening address. The corporate reporting season seems to be taking a back seat.

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At the same time, investors are likely to finally bury the hope of a US economic stimulus package before the election. The time window is too short. The positions are too far apart. And whether this stimulus package can be launched quickly after the election will depend on the majority in Congress.

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If the Republicans can defend their majority in the Senate on November 3rd, the financial markets should be more prepared for a small package. It can hardly be assumed that the Republican senators will suddenly throw their skepticism about further deficit spending overboard.

The signs for the start of trading in government bonds from the euro area point to price gains. The stock futures are in the red in early trading. Treasuries are still quoted at the end of Tuesday.

The bonds from the core countries should start the day with small price gains. If the yield for 10-year Bunds is below -0.6%, however, the room for further price gains will be thinner without the fantasy of a key rate cut. In this environment, the periphery could resume outperforming the core countries.

Economic data

The data calendar is almost empty. Of regional interest will be the retail sales in Spain in September and the French consumer sales in October. The effects of the lack of tourism should be felt in the Spanish data.

French consumer sentiment is likely to have deteriorated due to the restrictions on public life that have already come into effect. However, this will have little influence on the development of returns. Weak data would cement the low interest rate environment. The US data will have no impact on Treasury rates.

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Safe - haven rally is likely to result in a low-rate environment. The Japanese currency, yen, is often considered a classic safe - haven asset that gained some strength lately. Also, a dovish Fed dampened the dollar to some extent and boosted yen.

Primary market

The German Federal Finance Agency will show itself on the capital market by increasing the current 15-year federal bond by 2 billion euros. In the run-up to the placement, there is unlikely to be any selling pressure on the long end of the German yield curve due to the current positive mood for bond investments. Overall, the placement will run smoothly.

Italy will offer money market paper with a term of six months and a volume of 6.5 billion euros. Since short-term orders of 7.7 billion euros are due at the end of October, there is sufficient demand.

In the evening, after the successful placement of the 2-year T-Notes, the Treasury will come up with a new 5-year paper on Tuesday. However, as measured by the bid-to-cover ratio, demand was somewhat weak.

The US Treasury will offer a total of $ 55 billion in 5-year paper. The issue is unlikely to go as smoothly as Tuesday's. Investors are likely to demand yield concessions, which is likely to underperform the middle part of the US yield curve. In addition, the Treasury will approach investors with an additional $ 26 billion on a 2-year floater.

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