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Sports NFL Week 11 Pros vs Joes: Bettors lining up on Falcons, Dolphins

03:46  22 november  2020
03:46  22 november  2020 Source:   thescore.com

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Before you make your NFL bets this weekend, it's worth knowing which sides other bettors are backing - especially on games drawing sharp action.

We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Week 11 slate.

Falcons @ Saints (-3.5, 49.5), 1 p.m. ET

To nobody's surprise, the public is all over the Falcons this week against the Saints, who are without Drew Brees for this week and beyond. What is somewhat surprising is the sharps like the road 'dogs, too.

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Atlanta was drawing 50 times as much money on straight bets entering the weekend, forcing this line to move from an opening 5 to 3.5 by late Saturday afternoon. The Falcons have also gotten six times as many tickets written to them, suggesting support from all types of bettors ahead of Sunday.

"We’re getting pretty much exclusive money on the Falcons," Rood said. "The Falcons money showed up early and often."

Eagles @ Browns (-2.5, 47.5), 1 p.m.

The Eagles are another wiseguy target this week, opening as 3.5-point underdogs and being priced at +2.5 as of Saturday.

Philadelphia had garnered 75% of the ticket count entering the weekend, but it'd seen an overwhelming 26-to-1 advantage in money wagered on those tickets. Curiously, the Browns have been the parlay favorites this week, pulling four times as much money and five times as many bet slips.

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If Cleveland does win, the club will reverse a discouraging trend in this spot. The Browns are 7-15-2 against the spread in their last 24 games as favorites, including 2-4 ATS this season.

Steelers (-10.5, 46.5) @ Jaguars, 1 p.m.

Few teams draw consistent public support quite like the Steelers - they are again in the crosshairs for bettors in a favorable spot against the Jaguars.

Pittsburgh is the most-parlayed team on the board this week, with a 4-to-1 advantage in ticket count and a whopping 20-to-1 margin in money on parlay slips. The Steelers are also a popular play in straight bets, drawing 12 times as much money to move this line from 9.5 to 10.5 as of Saturday.

This new line suggests the public may be onto something. Double-digit road favorites are 15-5-1 ATS since 2018, winning all 21 games by an average of 19.5 points per game.

Dolphins (-3.5, 45) @ Broncos, 4:05 p.m.

Miami, another overwhelming side this week, is earning all of the public support against a thin Denver squad.

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The Dolphins opened as 3-point favorites and quickly moved to -3.5, where bettors still piled on in anticipation of the Broncos playing without starting quarterback Drew Lock. Miami had drawn 40 times as many tickets with a whopping 2,500-1 advantage in money entering the weekend, albeit at a lower volume than what we'll likely see by kickoff.

Still, bettors are clearly riding the Dolphins' five-game ATS win streak ahead of this one - even playing Miami at a roughly 20-to-1 clip in parlay bets, too.

"We’ve got almost exclusive money on the Dolphins at this point," Rood said. "That’s a one-way situation right there, both on the straight bets and on the parlays."

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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