Technology: Oilpatch pain to be felt across Canada: Poloz - PressFrom - Canada

TechnologyOilpatch pain to be felt across Canada: Poloz

20:31  06 december  2018
20:31  06 december  2018 Source:

Poloz says markets showing ‘welcome symptoms’ of normalization

Poloz says markets showing ‘welcome symptoms’ of normalization Recent developments in global financial markets -- particularly rising long-term bond yields and volatile stock markets -- are a reflection of strong global economic fundamentals, not weak ones, according to Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz. In a speech on how to read recent signals from financial markets, Poloz played down recent movements -- such as a flattening yield curve -- as evidence of deterioration. Instead, the focus should be on a recent increase in yields signaling the market expects monetary policy normalization to continue in response to a world economy running close to capacity.

Mr. Poloz joined Export Development Canada (EDC) in 1999 as Vice-President and Chief Economist. Mr. Poloz is a Certified International Trade Professional and a graduate of Columbia University’s Senior Executive Program. He has been a visiting scholar at the International Monetary

Stephen S. Poloz (born 1956) is a Canadian banker and the ninth and current Governor of the Bank of Canada . He is also a member of the board of directors for the Bank of International Settlements. In July 2017, Poloz raised the Bank of Canada 's key interest rate to 0.75

Oilpatch pain to be felt across Canada: Poloz© Provided by Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, returns to the Bank of Canada after holding a press conference at the National Press Theatre in Ottawa on October 24, 2018.

OTTAWA - The hit from low oil prices in Western Canada will reverberate across the national economy — but they should have less cross-country bite than the crisis of 2015, the head of the Bank of Canada said Thursday.

The 2015 oil-price crash contributed at the time to a slight, technical recession and prompted the central bank to cut interest rates to boost Canada's economy — twice.

Even with the latest collapse in oil prices, governor Stephen Poloz insisted Thursday that he expects interest-rate hikes will still be needed over time. The central bank has been gradually raising rates for more than a year, thanks to the stronger economy.

Global credit ratings agency warns of downgrades in Canadian oilpatch if crude price woes persist

Global credit ratings agency warns of downgrades in Canadian oilpatch if crude price woes persist Global credit ratings agency warns of downgrades in Canadian oilpatch if crude price woes persist

Не сейчас. Месяц бесплатно. TFIOS | Pain demands to be felt . Jessica Hawtornes. Загрузка

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz says Canada is facing a long and painful fallout from a "seismic shift" in global resource prices that could last up to five years and drain -billion a year from the economy. Canadians will have to live with a cheaper dollar, higher-priced imported goods

The arrival, however, of future rate increases will likely be more gradual than many observers had predicted just a few days ago. Market watchers, many of whom had expected the bank to increase the rate again in January, are now predicting a slower pace following the concerns expressed by Poloz in recent days regarding recent economic developments.

On Wednesday, the bank left the rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent as it underlined fresh negatives, such as the recent drop in oil prices.

In explaining the rate decision Thursday, Poloz appeared less inclined to make a move any time soon.

"The current level of interest rates remains appropriate for the time being," Poloz said Thursday in a speech at an event hosted by CFA Society Toronto.

Four charts for Poloz to ponder in weighing Canadian rate hikes

Four charts for Poloz to ponder in weighing Canadian rate hikes Investors are hunting for clues Wednesday on whether Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is swayed by recent signs of economic weakness or sticks with his desire to boost interest rates back to neutral. While his one-page decision is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged, here is a sampling of data that highlight some of the headwinds facing Canada’s economy: © Bloomberg Canadian economic indicators have been surprising to the downside Citi’s Economic Surprise Index, which tracks the difference between market expectations for data and their actual values, has been trending at the lowest level since last summer and has b

As the price of crude oil plunges and drags the loonie with it, the pain stretches far beyond the Alberta oil patch . Caught in the middle, of course, is Canada . While the shock was at first expected to be focused Last week Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz reminded the country of the hit we ’ re

Canada 's oil sector would rather forget than reflect on the past year. In big cities and small rural communities across the province that rely heavily on oil and gas activity, home prices One oilpatch veteran said the pain felt in 2015 was a needed correction or reset for the Canadian oil industry to

"We continue to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise... The pace at which this process occurs, of course, will remain decidedly data dependent."

The bank said Wednesday the timing of future increases will now depend on several factors — the persistence of the crude slump, the ability of corporate investment to pick up its pace and how much room the overall economy still has left to grow without stoking inflation.

The bank raised its key interest rate target at its October meeting — its fifth increase since the summer of 2017.

But much has changed in just six weeks.

In the speech Thursday, Poloz said the data since October has been "on the disappointing side" and that the economy has less momentum heading into the final three months of 2018 than the bank believed it would.

Poloz pointed to an unexpected decline in business investment over the summer as a key development — but he said the dive in oil prices has been the most-important "new shock."

Bank of Canada expected to leave rate unchanged

Bank of Canada expected to leave rate unchanged The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent today after a 25-basis-point increase at its last setting in October. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick OTTAWA - The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent today after a 25-basis-point increase a This morning's announcement comes in the wake of a move by the Alberta government to curtail oil production in the province after Jan. 1 to try to clear a crude storage glut that has driven western Canadian oil prices to multi-year lows.

Steep oil price discounts place oilpatch credit ratings in danger, warns DBRS. Alberta Oil Woes Could Put Poloz January Rate Hike in Jeopardy. Canada ’s Oil Patch Feels Double Pain with Cuts, Price Collapse. Five Things to Know in World Business Today. Moving Equipment Across Provincial Borders?

I felt alone, I felt unsure, I felt sad for the physical pain I am going through and all these doctor appointments and tests and unsureness. So when I woke up Sunday morning in a puddle of tears, feeling pain that I couldn’t understand, I sat with the quote yet again “ pain demands to be felt ”.

"It is already clear that a painful adjustment is developing for Western Canada, and there will be a meaningful impact on the Canadian macroeconomy," he said.

"That said, given the consolidation that has taken place in the energy sector since 2014, the net effects of lower oil prices on the Canadian economy as a whole, dollar for dollar, should be smaller than they were in 2015."

He said oil and gas production now makes up just 3.5 per cent of Canada's economy, compared with six per cent in 2014. In the years that have followed the last slump, the sector has adjusted its cost structures, wages and employment levels, Poloz said.

Poloz also said that in 2015 about 30 per cent of all business investment in Canada was in the oil and gas sector, while today it's only around 18 per cent. That means investment had farther to fall a few years ago.

Looking at the positive side, Poloz said the latest oil-price slump has arrived at a time when Canada's economy is running close to full tilt and the unemployment rate is at a 40-year low.

He added he remains hopeful business investment will rebound now that much of the uncertainty surrounding North American free trade has eased with the new agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada.

Canadian dollar falls as Bank of Canada's Poloz says economy weaker than expected

Canadian dollar falls as Bank of Canada's Poloz says economy weaker than expected Canadian dollar falls as Bank of Canada's Poloz says economy weaker than expected

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz cited numerous worries plaguing the economy during his speech to Toronto’s financial elites at the prestigious Poloz highlighted high personal debts, housing prices, cryptocurrencies and other causes for concern, along with actions that the BoC is taking to

This has been a season of pain for the oilpatch . On June 1, oil was trading at US per barrel. But all three agreed that this one feels different. "I think things have changed substantially," said Jim Canada 's energy sector has no control over the price of oil , but it does have control of its spending

The central bank, he said, will also be watching for signs the economy can still grow without fuelling inflation. Poloz pointed to recent downward revisions to gross domestic product data that suggested there's still some room for non-inflationary growth.

Moving forward, the bank will scrutinize the results of its quarterly survey of business executives, to be published Dec. 21, for clues on corporate sentiment. Poloz said the bank will also meet with leaders in the energy sector, as it did following the oil-price collapse in late 2014 and early 2015.

In a news conference Thursday following his speech, Poloz was asked about the chances a rate cut could be needed to deal with the latest oil slump.

"I'm just not going to comment on that for now," he said. "We have to do our work in order to understand the shock better and what its magnitude actually is."

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Oilpatch CEOs support Indigenous bid for Trans Mountain.
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