Politics Biden looks very competitive in new Southern swing state polls
The week in polls: Trump erases Biden's bounce in Florida, Biden gains in Georgia
In the Senate, a poll found Doug Jones may not be doomed after all. And another found Lindsey Graham's race may not be as tight as believed.They have found Biden still holding a commanding lead nationally (though down slightly from last week) and leading in 10 of 12 swing states. But Trump regained a slight polling average lead in Ohio and ate a big chunk out of Biden's leads in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Trump also erased Biden's gains in Florida from last week, which some Democrats had hoped signaled their nominee was pulling away in the crucial Sunshine State.
A set of new polls show Democratic presidential nomineewith a narrow lead — or a tie — with President in the Southern states of , and , a potentially promising sign for Biden’s odds of winning the White House.
In this election cycle, political analysts consider Florida and North Carolina to be swing states — and Texas and Georgia to be possible swing states, as well. Considering that Trump won all of them in 2016 — including outstripping Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Texas by— the new polling speaks to the president’s vulnerabilities as Election Day swiftly approaches.
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The latestshow Biden leading Trump 50 percent to 48 percent among likely voters in Florida; Biden over Trump in North Carolina 51 percent to 47 percent; and Biden tied with Trump 49-49 in Georgia.
The results are close enough that Trump could regain his advantage ahead of November 3, but it is striking to see Biden performing so well in states that Trump easily won before, and to see a Democratic candidate putting up big numbers in a region that has skewed Republican for decades.
Most worryingly for Trump, perhaps is that Biden garners more trust from voters on the top tier issue of handling the. In Florida, Biden leads Trump 49 to 41 percent on the issue; in North Carolina he leads 50 to 39 percent; and in Georgia 48 to 41 percent.
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CNN’s polling expert Harry Ententhis is bad news for Trump, since historical polling data suggests that in elections where there’s an issue that surpasses the economy in attention, then “whoever is most trusted most on the non-economic issue is likely to win the election.” And as has written, while polls show the pandemic isn’t necessarily the top issue for Trump voters, surveys have found it is a key issue for the undecided voters who could swing all three states either toward Trump or Biden.
In Texas, things are looking up for Biden as well.shows Biden edging out Trump 48 to 45 percent among likely voters.
Mark Owens, the political scientist at UT-Tyler who directed the poll,that he considered Texas a “tossup” because of shifting attitudes toward Trump. The has rated the race “Lean Republican.”
The week in polls: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them
With just eight days to go to Election Day, both national polls and swing state surveys make it clear the race between Trump and Biden is tightening.President Donald Trump gained on his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in national polling averages, and in nine of 12 contested states. But Biden still holds a sizable lead in the national polls and is still ahead of Trump in 10 of the 12 states that could decide the election.
The number of Texas voters concerned with how Trump has handled the coronavirus appears to be growing, Owens found. In September, 32 percent of Texans said they had no confidence in Trump to keep communities safe from the pandemic — but in the latest poll, that number surged to 44 percent.
Most Texans preferred Trump over Biden on the economy, with 53 percent of likely voters saying they thought Trump would handle it better, and 46 percent feeling the same about Biden.
State polling should be taken with a grain of salt
Polling in battleground states is important — particularly given that the US’s presidential elections are determined by the electoral college, not a popular vote. And together, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas account for 98 of the 270 electoral college votes a candidate needs to win the White House.
But state polling also has significant limitations, and Biden’s standing in these states (as well as other more closely-watched swing states likeand ) should not be seen as a surefire sign of his victory in the overall election.
Polling averages show Trump gaining on Biden in most swing states. Will it be enough?
Trump gained on Biden in polling average in 9 of 12 swing states since Monday, continuing last week's trend. But of those, he is only ahead in Texas.The deadline for early voting ends Friday in several states where the race is tight, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Texas – and on Saturday in the key states of Florida and North Carolina. Though early turnout appears to favor Democrats in many states, Republicans are gaining ground quickly in Florida and other early voting states.
Consider that a Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin conducted in October 2016 had Clinton up by— but that Trump ultimately by 0.7 points.
Ashas explained, there are many reasons that a number of state polls were off the mark in 2016 compared to the final election results. Some of those have been corrected for during this election cycle — for instance, in the run-up to 2016, some polls overrepresented Clinton voters because they failed to account for differences in education level, and that’s largely no longer the case: Both the CBS News and Dallas Morning News polls were weighted by education, for example.
But there are still plenty of obstacles. Polling is always a snapshot of a specific time and group of voters, and ultimately can’t give definitive insight into the likelihood that someone sharing their preference with a pollster will actually show up at the voting booth on Election Day. It also can’t necessarily predict the patterns of late-breaking voters who decide on their candidate in the final days before election (something that played).
Adding to the uncertainty is that the pandemic makes predictions based on polling especially difficult, as Zhou explains:
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Biden acts like the election boils down to a Pennsylvania Senate race. Joe Biden leads President Trump by 10 points among registered voters, 52 percent to 42 percent, in the final national pre-election poll conducted by NBC and the Wall Street Journal. Majorities of Americans think the country is on the wrong track and disapprove of the president’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Specifically, the use of vote-by-mail due to the coronavirus pandemic makes predicting the composition of the electorate that much harder. It’s unclear how closely turnout will match up with prior years because of public health concerns about physical polling places and questions around the number of people who’ll use mail-in ballots instead.
“It’s difficult to do a turnout model because you’re not sure who’s going to turn out. That’s going to be even harder in an election that has extensive vote-by-mail,” says University of New Mexico political science professor Lonna Atkeson.
Bottom line: this Southern swing state polling is promising for Biden, but polls are not to be confused with perfect predictions of outcome.
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Battleground states: These are the 12 states that will determine the 2020 election .
Key states to watch include not only perennial toss-ups but also states Trump won solidly four years ago, including Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.Yes, voters in each of the 50 states participate in the presidential election. But, like past elections, it will be key blocs in a dozen battleground states that are likely to decide who occupies the Oval Office in January.