Sport Dayton vs. Belmont odds, line: 2021 college basketball picks, Nov. 28 predictions from proven computer model

The upset-minded Dayton Flyers take on the Belmont Bruins in the championship game of the ESPN Events Invitational 2021 on Sunday. The Flyers (3-3), who were seventh in the Atlantic 10 Conference at 9-7 and were 14-10 overall last year, advanced to the title game by stunning fourth-ranked Kansas 74-73 in Friday's semifinal. The Bruins (5-2), who won the Ohio Valley Conference at 18-2 and were 26-4 overall in 2020-21, defeated Iona 72-65 on Friday. Belmont has made nine trips to the NCAA Tournament over the past 16 years.

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Mar 20, 2019; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; General overall view of a basketball approaching the rim and net before the first round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament at Vivint Smart Home Arena.

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Tip-off from HP Fieldhouse in Orlando, Fla., is set for 4 p.m. ET. This will be the first-ever meeting between the teams. The Bruins are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Belmont vs. Dayton odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 143. Before making any Dayton vs. Belmont picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

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SportsLine's model has released its CBB picks and predictions for Butler vs. Michigan State :Michigan State vs. Butler spread: Michigan State -3Michigan State vs. Butler over-under: 131.5 pointsMichigan State vs. Butler money line: Butler +130, Michigan State -150MSU: The under is 6-1 in MSU's last 7 games as a favorite BUT: The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdogFeatured Game| Butler Bulldogs vs. Michigan State Spartans MoneylineSpreadTotal BUTLER +145 BET NOW +3.5-110BET NOW o131.5-110BET NOW MICHST -170 BET NOW -3.5-110BET NOW u131.

Now, the model has set its sights on Dayton vs. Belmont. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Belmont vs. Dayton:

• Dayton vs. Belmont spread: Belmont -4.5
• Dayton vs. Belmont over-under: 143 points
• DAY: The Flyers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five neutral site games
• BEL: The Bruins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall

Why Belmont can cover

The Bruins return 97 percent of their offensive production from last season's OVC championship team. Belmont is led by All-OVC senior center Nick Muszynski, who averages 17.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists and two blocks per game while connecting on 57.3 percent of his FGAs. In the 74-69 tournament-opening victory over Drake, Muszynski poured in 31 points while grabbing nine rebounds. He has recorded one double-double on the season, scoring 17 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in an overtime win over Furman.

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Also powering the Bruins is junior guard Ben Sheppard, who is averaging 16.6 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. He scored a career-high-tying 25 points in the semifinal win over Iona. He has reached double-figure scoring in every game this season, including a 25-point performance in the season opener at Ohio. Last year, Sheppard was the OVC Player of the Week twice.

Why Dayton can cover

The Flyers entered the tournament with three straight losses but have been impressive in wins over Miami (Fla.) and Kansas. Three players are averaging in double figures, including redshirt junior guard Elijah Weaver. He is averaging 10.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists and is connecting on 50 percent of his field goals, including 40 percent from 3-point range. He is also an 86.7 percent free throw shooter.

Also leading Dayton is redshirt sophomore Toumani Camara, who averages 10.8 points, seven rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.2 steals per game. The transfer from Georgia became the first eligible transfer to be named Preseason All-Atlantic 10 third team. He scored 14 points on 6-of-9 shooting from the floor and a team-high seven rebounds against Kansas. In a season-opening win over UIC, he scored 15 points and grabbed 10 rebounds.

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How to make Dayton vs. Belmont picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it says 10 players will score at least eight points with the teams combining for 15 made three-pointers. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in nearly 80 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Belmont vs. Dayton? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 80 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dayton vs. Belmont spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $2,100 on its college basketball picks the last five years, and find out.