ALBANY – A recent poll by the Siena Research Institute shows that Governor Kathy Hochul is pulling ahead in the race for governor, standing 25 points clear of U.S. Representative Elise Stefanik in a head-to-head faceoff.
Stefanik, who many expect to challenge Hochul, has seen her position weaken; she’s dropped sharply from just a 14-point difference reported earlier in August.
According to Siena pollster Steven Greenberg, “Hochul now enjoys the support from 75% of Democratic voters, an increase up from 68% last month, whereas Stefanik’s support from Republicans has dipped to 68%, down from 75%.” This poll marks the first instance where more than half of those surveyed—52%—indicated they would back Hochul over Stefanik, though about 17% were undecided on their preference for the upcoming November election.
Independent voters are showing a significant shift, as they were initially leaning toward Stefanik by three points. But now, they’re backing Hochul by an impressive 18 points.
This shift is noteworthy because independent voters are the second-largest group in New York after Democrats. Despite a rise in Republican registrants over the past year, many voters seem inclined to remain unaffiliated with any party.
Interestingly, when polled this month, independent voters indicated they would rather see a different candidate than push for Hochul. This sentiment resonates with the broader voter perspective—51% stated they prefer an alternative over the current candidates.
Additionally, independent voters have also voiced concerns regarding the rising crime rates over the past year, backed by polling data reflecting public views on crime trends across New York.
Today, while a slim majority feels that crime has stayed the same statewide over the last year, many continue expressing concerns about local crime levels, as noted by Greenberg.
In response, Hochul has made it a priority to communicate the improvements in crime rates before the upcoming election, although some crime charges still exceed numbers from before the pandemic, detailed in this more comprehensive analysis.
This messaging seems to have positively influenced Hochul’s job approval ratings, which currently stand at 54%—the highest it has been in over two years and significantly better than her approval rating of 15% lower last September.
For Stefanik, this means stepping up her game to sway public opinion against Hochul, although she has yet to formally announce her candidacy for governor.
Responding to the live poll results, Alex DeGrasse, senior advisor for Stefanik, expressed skepticism about the reliability of the findings, stating that they were taken prior to Hochul’s endorsement of a contentious political figure, Zohran Mamdani, in the mayoral race for New York City.
DeGrasse further raised questions about the poll’s reflection of support among conservatives, asserting, “No way is Elise Stefanik polling at only 60% support among conservatives in reality. Kathy Hochul is the one losing traction in her party, not Stefanik, who is well supported among Republicans across the state.”
However, Stefanik’s ties to former President Donald J. Trump may pose a challenge for her campaign, notably given Trump’s low approval rating in New York at 37%. This connection could influence both her and broader Republican support.
Investigating public opinion about the recent tax and spending plan that Stefanik endorsed—the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—about 63% of voters believe it jeopardizes essential healthcare programs, which includes nearly a quarter of registered Republicans.
As per Greenberg’s assessments, while Republicans side with Trump by 58-27%, a whopping 78% of Democrats and 65% of independents fear that crucial health programs are at risk.
At the time of publication, there was no immediate comment from Hochul’s campaign regarding these latest poll results.
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