The conflict in Ukraine is about more than just land — Russia’s real aim, as identified by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), is to seize political oversight of the whole country, rather than merely capturing regions like Donetsk.
In an interview on August 19, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made the bold claim that Moscow has “never talked about the need to seize any territories,” which ostensibly includes Crimea and Donbas.
However, Lavrov’s statements also hint at demands that threaten Ukraine’s sovereignty—specifically proposing the abolition of laws related to language and religion.
ISW analysts point out that these comments underscore the Kremlin’s genuine intentions. They aim to dismiss Ukraine’s democratically elected government and replace it with a one that favors Russian interests, thereby taking full control over the nation.
The report explains, “If we separate Russia’s territorial ambitions from their other, more veiled demands under slogans about ‘root causes,’ it’s clear that the Kremlin sees all its war stipulations as interconnected. This means they want to achieve all these goals without any compromises to further a peace deal.”
Furthermore, the analysts observe that Moscow’s agenda includes years of push for Ukraine’s disarmament, forbidding NATO membership, and changing the current government—all pursued vigorously through both warfare and diplomacy efforts.
The wide-scale invasion launched by the Kremlin in 2022 was the culmination of eight years failed attempts, starting from obstacles posed by hybrid warfare strategies back in 2004, designed to reassert control over Ukraine.
The ISW also emphasizes that Russia has similar aspirations to exert influence over other ex-Soviet nations, including Baltic states like Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. While gains in these areas have proven elusive, Russia has made substantial progress in solidifying its power in Belarus and Georgia, working hard to diminish Belarusian sovereignty.
Earlier, Vladimir Putin listed demands for resolving the situation in Ukraine during discussions with US President Donald Trump in Alaska, which included various territorial issues.
Reports from Reuters suggest that Russia might contemplate pulling back from certain occupied regions in Ukraine, specifically in Kharkiv and Sumy. Still, this might come at the cost of Ukraine conceding eastern areas previously targeted by Russia for conquest.
On the other hand, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while in talks with Trump, was open to the idea of a potential land exchange but firmly stated that any decisions on territory must reflect the desires of the Ukrainian populace.
