Representative Elise Stefanik, who aligns with the Republican Party, has seen a notable boost in her support, gaining almost 10 percentage points against current New York Governor Kathy Hochul. This shift comes after last month’s Siena University poll, indicating that conservative voters are rallying behind their candidate.
Newsweek reached out to Hochul for her thoughts on this development but is still awaiting a response.
Why This is Important
Hochul, New York’s first female governor, took office in 2021 following Andrew Cuomo’s resignation amidst numerous allegations. Her successful election against Republican Lee Zeldin in 2022 saw her win by the tightest margin in the state’s recent history.
While New Yorkers traditionally favor Democrats in various elections, the Republican Party has been making gains. With a solid base and increasing support from independent voters, Stefanik and possibly other Republican contenders like Representative Mike Lawler might challenge Hochul’s reelection bid more seriously.
Key Insights
The latest poll from Siena, released recently, shows discrepancies in Hochul’s performance, despite an increase in her job approval ratings. Her lead against Stefanik in a hypothetical race has shrunk to 14 points—45% for Hochul and 31% for Stefanik—down from a 23-point margin a few months ago.
About half of voters claim they are at least somewhat familiar with Stefanik, with only 29% considering her qualified for the governor’s role. Additionally, 49% believe her election would negatively impact New York.
Hochul’s favorability has improved slightly from the previous poll, now at 42-44%, while her job approval has climbed to 53-42%, a positive shift since June.
Conversely, Stefanik’s numbers sit at 27-32%, with a significant 41% stating they either haven’t heard of her or don’t know her.
According to pollster Steven Greenberg from Siena, a significant change stems from Republicans supporting Stefanik more actively, while independent voters have also seen a slight shift—from favoring Hochul by 7 points in June to supporting Stefanik by 3 points now.
Greenberg stated, “Is a 14-point gap a warning? In New York, it’s definitely a red flag, given that 49% of the state identifies as Democratic, compared to just 23% Republican. No Republican has won a gubernatorial race in New York since George Pataki in 2002, but Hochul’s recent close win shows there’s changing momentum.”
There’s a strong chance that Stefanik’s visibility and voter recognition will evolve as the election approaches, impacting her favorability positively.
Independent voters have also shown they could play a decisive role, with support for Stefanik notably being equal among independent voters, emphasizing the importance of this group for any campaign.
Voter Sentiment on Other Elections
In addition, the latest poll indicates democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani for mayor in New York City grabs 44% of registered voter support, outpacing independent Andrew Cuomo, who holds 25%. Republican Curtis Sliwa and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams have less backing at 12% and 7%, respectively.
Younger voters under 35 favor Mamdani significantly, while those between 35-54 also lean toward him. However, voters aged 55 and above tend to support Cuomo over Mamdani.
What They Are Saying
Alex DeGrasse, Executive Director of Team Elise, remarked to Newsweek: “This Siena poll spells serious trouble for Hochul as she’s losing ground with independent voters, falling below 50% on the ballot. There’s a growing expectation for Elise to take the lead in bringing new governance to New York.”
DeGrasse emphasized that Stefanik would prioritize significant results, like tax cuts and reforms, as part of her campaign strategy to connect with voters.
Hochul reacted on social media, stating on August 8: “Families in New York are facing huge hikes because of Donald Trump’s tariffs. Stefanik has chosen to support this rather than advocate for New Yorkers. I’m committed to easing the financial burden for families.”
The Road Ahead
Mark your calendars; the New York gubernatorial election is set for November 3, 2026.
