According to a recent poll from Emerson College Polling and The Hill released on Thursday, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) has taken a solid lead of 10 points against Virginia’s Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in the race for governor.
The survey, conducted on September 28-29, indicates that if the election were held tomorrow, 52% of likely voters would opt for Spanberger, compared to 42% who would support Earle-Sears. Only 6% remain undecided.
This poll comes shortly after early voting commenced in Virginia on September 19, with over 146,223 ballots cast in the initial week of voting.
Significantly, Spanberger also leads among those who have already voted, marking a 60% to 38% advantage. Even among those yet to cast their ballots, she maintains a lead of 50% to 43%.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director at Emerson College Polling, pointed out that Spanberger’s support has notably increased among independents, men, and younger voters.
“Right now, independent voters are backing Spanberger by a 19-point margin—a quite contrasting shift from January’s numbers, where Earle-Sears had a 4-point lead among them. Interestingly, the male vote has shifted from a solid 15-point edge for Earle-Sears to an even split, with both candidates getting 46% support,” Kimball explained.
As for younger voters, Spanberger’s popularity has grown among those under 50. Her lead has swelled from a narrow stint of 41% against 39% to a substantial 27-point advantage, currently sitting at 59% versus 32%.
On the flip side, Earle-Sears has not managed to consolidate the older voting bloc. Back in January, voters aged 50 and older were nearly divided at 43% for Spanberger and 42% for Earle-Sears. Today, the difference remains tight, with 49% backing Earle-Sears and 47% supporting Spanberger.
These survey results align well with the polling averages from Decision Desk HQ, another of The Hill’s partners, indicating Spanberger’s lead at 50.1% versus Earle-Sears’s 43.1%.
The Emerson College/The Hill poll sampled a total of 725 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.
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