It’s been nine months since Donald Trump took office, and his approval ratings paint a pretty clear picture of the divide across the United States.
According to new stats from Civiqs, Trump seems to have solid support in conservative states across the West and South, where he had significant electoral wins. However, he’s facing a tough time in more liberal areas.
In swing states, it’s looking pretty bleak for Trump as we gear up for the 2026 midterm elections—a situation that could cost him dearly.
Why This Matters
This data really showcases the split in the country and hints that even if Trump secures a win in 2024, he’d still face hurdles in appealing to a broader audience.
In the **swing states**, where his approval lingers just below 50%, his ability to maintain momentum could vastly affect party strategy and potential challengers’ positions.
Key Takeaways
In states that lean conservative, Trump continues to enjoy significant backing. Wyoming leads the pack with a whopping 65% approval rating, showing just 31% disapproval for a net approval rating of +34. West Virginia is close behind at 61% approval, giving him a +28 net rating. North Dakota, Idaho, and Montana also reflect solid support, all above +20.
On the flip side, Trump is facing considerable backlash in states that lean more Democratic, especially along the coasts.
Hawaii has him at a mere 21% approval compared to 75% disapproval, which translates to a net approval of -54. Vermont isn’t much kinder, showing 24% approval and 72% disapproval, a net of -48. California and New York also strongly oppose him, with net ratings at -38 and -32, despite Trump previously getting 29% and 44% of the votes there in 2024.
Places like Maryland, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island also demonstrate strong disapproval, with net approvals between -40 and -42.
The picture in swing states, which were crucial in the 2024 election, is more complex. In Pennsylvania, where he narrowly won about 51% of the vote, current approval is at 43% while 52% disapprove, leading to a net of -9. Similar stories come from Michigan and Wisconsin, sitting around 41%-43% approval with disapprovals at 54%, netting between -11 to -13.
States like North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada are also tipping ever so slightly negative, their net approvals ticking around -7 to -10. Trump still seems to keep a dedicated fan base of roughly 40%-44% in these crucial battlegrounds, yet disapproval consistently overtakes support. This suggests that despite election results, public sentiment isn’t fully on board.
New polling from Morning Consult points to the troubling fact that for the first time since the beginning of Trump’s second term, every swing state has him underwater approval-wise.
As comments from Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science at the University College London, reveal, this is bad news for Trump and the Republican Party.
He highlighted that Trump’s struggling numbers in swing states emphasize the divisive nature of his leadership, where he manages to keep his base firm but struggles to expand beyond it. Without Trump taking the lead in 2026, Republicans might face extra challenges, given their past experiences when he wasn’t on the ballot.
The ownership of toss-up states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, will critically define the balance in Congress during the up-and-coming midterms.
History tells us that the party in the White House typically loses ground during midterm elections. Since WWII, sitting presidents have lost many House seats in almost every midterm cycle, often by substantial margins.
Initial polling shows that Democrats are gaining traction on the generic congressional ballot. However, it’s still a competitive game. CNN even speculates that Democrats could lose as many as 19 House seats, which would let the GOP keep control.
Interestingly enough, presidents with approval ratings hovering underneath 50% usually see even heavier losses; on average, around 37 House seats, according to Gallup.
Right now, multiple recent polls show Trump’s rating under that crucial 50% mark. Newsweek’s tracker indicates he’s resting at around 45%.
Civiqs puts his overall approval at 41%, but with 55% disapproving him.
Looking Ahead
Political analysts believe that sustained sub-50% approval can severely hurt the party of the sitting president in midterms, energizing opposition turnout and making it tougher for Republican candidates in swing districts.
