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Health & Fitness New leaked SAGE scenario predicts 85,000 deaths from second wave

01:40  29 october  2020
01:40  29 october  2020 Source:   dailymail.co.uk

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As many as 85 , 000 people could die in the UK in a second wave of the coronavirus this winter, a leaked scientific The paper by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies ( Sage ), seen by The document stresses that it is setting out a worst-case scenario and not a prediction of what is likely to

A leaked government report suggests a “reasonable worst case scenario ” of 85 , 000 Covid deaths this winter. Last month a report, requested by the UK's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, suggested there might be about 120, 000 new coronavirus deaths in a second wave of infections this

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Scientists increased pressure for a tougher national lockdown last night amid suggestions that up to 85,000 could die in a second wave of coronavirus.

The new 'worst case' scenario came in a leaked Sage committee paper as government-commissioned research claimed nearly one million in England are currently infected.

The study warned the country was at a 'critical stage' in the second wave and urgent action was needed to get the R number below one.

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Boris Johnson is under growing pressure from scientists for a national 'circuit breaker' lockdown or a return to the kind of restrictions the country faced in spring.

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According to the SAGE prediction , all of England could spend Christmas under Tier 3 restrictions. The forecast being circulated through Whitehall predicts deaths will hit 500 a day and 25, 000 The government's scientific advisers are urging the Prime Minister to prepare for a second wave of

SAGE predicted a smaller but more prolonged second peak, with high daily deaths rumbling on for Sources within SAGE warn there could be 25, 000 people in hospital with Covid-19 by the end of French President Macron could announce a new nationwide lockdown today as a growing wave of

It emerged yesterday that ministers were given an analysis by Sage suggesting the second wave could be deadlier than the first, with many in the group of scientists believing the Government needs to take drastic action now.

The latest official study, released last night, was conducted by Imperial College London researchers and based on random swab testing of 86,000 across England between October 16 and 25.

Boris Johnson wearing a suit and tie: Boris Johnson is under growing pressure from scientists for a national 'circuit breaker' lockdown or a return to the kind of restrictions the country faced in spring © Provided by Daily Mail Boris Johnson is under growing pressure from scientists for a national 'circuit breaker' lockdown or a return to the kind of restrictions the country faced in spring

It found the spread of the virus accelerated dramatically in the past fortnight, with the number of new cases doubling every nine days. The national R rate is almost 1.6.

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The broadcaster said the scenario was laid out in a document signed off by the Scientific Advisory Group for Mr Hancock said countries in others parts of the world were already experiencing a second wave , adding it was "a very The graphic below shows the excess deaths caused by coronavirus.

Coronavirus news: SAGE models predict daily deaths to be higher for longer during the second wave of the Coronavirus news: SAGE has also predicted all of England to be in tier three restrictions by New data protection regulations may be coming on January 1 - here's what you need to do.

Around one in 80 tested positive, suggesting there are around 96,000 new infections a day.

Experts believe this is close to the level at the peak of the epidemic in March, warning of an inevitable 'exponential' increase in deaths and hospitalisations.

If the current growth rate continues, more than 200,000 a day will be getting infected by next weekend.


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The authors said current measures were not working and there had to be a change before Christmas. If more stringent steps are to be taken, it should be 'sooner rather than later'.

The study said: 'We estimate 960,000 individuals are harbouring SARS-CoV-2 virus in England on any one day.

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'Whether via regional or national measures, it is now time-critical to control the virus and turn R below one if further hospital admissions and deaths from Covid-19 are to be avoided.'

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It comes as a leaked SAGE report suggested a "reasonable worst case scenario " of 85 , 000 deaths across the UK this winter due to Covid-19. Speaking to The Times, the Health Secretary said countries in others parts of the world were already experiencing a second wave , adding it was “a very

120, 000 predicted deaths ? | New research on ICU risk factors. Elizabeth Lucy. Загрузка

The findings came as a further 310 deaths and 24,701 positive tests were reported across England yesterday. Hospitals are rapidly filling up with coronavirus patients and daily admissions are at the same level as early May. There are now 9,520 patients in hospital, compared with 2,484 on October 1.

A Sage document published yesterday by The Spectator said that under a 'reasonable worst case scenario' government scientists expect 356,000 to be hospitalised this winter.

It added there are likely to be at least 500 deaths a day for 'at least' three months between December and February, meaning 85,000 could be dead by the end of March.

The Imperial React study, commissioned by the Department of Health, is the largest surveillance testing programme and is highly influential on government policy.

a man wearing a suit and tie: Lead author Professor Paul Elliot said 'everything has got worse in every region' © Provided by Daily Mail Lead author Professor Paul Elliot said 'everything has got worse in every region'

It found that over the past two weeks, the overall prevalence of infection in the community in England was 1.28 per cent, up from 0.6 in the previous round of testing between September 18 and October 5.

Europe's second spike of Covid-19 is still only a TENTH size of first

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The experts said the national R rate – the average number infected by someone with the virus – was now 1.56, up from 1.16 at the beginning of October.

Lead author Professor Paul Elliott said: 'Everything has got worse in every region. There is now rapid growth in the South where there are fewer cases.

'We are seeing a pattern in the South which is similar to what we saw in the North a few weeks back.'

He added: 'We are at a critical period in the second wave. There was a period when the rate of rise was decreasing and we were hopeful that the policies that have been implemented were turning the rates down.

'But what we see this time is an increase in the rate of rise and not only a high prevalence in the North, but rapidly increasing prevalence in the South.'

Co-author Professor Steven Riley said scientists were particularly concerned by rising levels of infection among older age groups.

The study showed prevalence increased across all age groups, with the greatest rise in those aged 55-64, now at 1.2 per cent, up from 0.37 per cent a month ago.

Read more

Will US COVID-19 mortality catch up to surging cases? .
Experts explained that the number of excess deaths will likely rise again this winter, but will probably not reach levels seen this spring as older people take greater care to stay safe and outbreaks trend rural.In fact, new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggest that excess fatalities in the US have fallen substantially since the first peak of the pandemic in the spring.

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