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MoneyIs the UK headed for recession?

15:35  11 june  2019
15:35  11 june  2019 Source:   theweek.co.uk

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The world's two biggest economies are locked in a trade war. The pound is slumping. The economy's contracting. Recession may be just one quarter away. Or is

Узнать причину. Закрыть. Is the UK headed for recession ? News today tv. Загрузка Druckenmiller: The US is in worse shape for a recession now - Продолжительность: 7:15 CNBC Television Recommended for you.

Is the UK headed for recession? © Getty

The UK economy could be headed for its first quarterly contraction since 2012 amid growing fears continued uncertainty around Brexit might push Britain into recession.

Official data revealed a sharp slowdown in manufacturing in April which saw Britain’s economy shrink by 0.4% that month, following a 0.1% contraction in March.

CNN Business says the data was “even more dire than economists had expected”. Factory output plunged 3.9% while car production fell 24%, the biggest monthly decline since records began, as manufacturers were unable to reverse closures planned to coincide with Britain’s expected departure from the EU and carmakers idled factories ahead of the original 29 March Brexit deadline.

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Is the UK facing a recession these days? The global economy behaves cyclically and we’re approaching the down part of that cycle. The effects are complimented and in some cases caused by trade frictions which in turn have been caused by the US-China trade war and Brexit.

(A recession is defined as two or more consecutive quarters of declining GDP). The UK was in recession from the second quarter of 2008 through to the second quarter of 2009, and again from the last quarter of 2011 through to the second quarter of 2012. Some believe things are headed that way.

Three years after the Brexit referendum, UK-based companies still have no idea what their future terms of trade will be with the European Union, which accounts for about half of British goods exports. Recent surveys suggest EU customers are taking their business elsewhere while data covering the services, manufacturing and construction sectors for May “reinforce the conclusion that the UK economy is grinding to a halt”, says CNN.

Reuters says the latest data “confirm the economy is slowing after getting a bigger-than-expected boost in the first three months of 2019 from businesses stockpiling before a Brexit that never came”.

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What is a ' Recession ' * A recession is a significant decline in activity across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, employment, real income and June 2017 Is the U . K . headed for a recession ? July 2016 BARCLAYS: Britain is 'on the cusp of recession '.

Are we headed for another recession ? The high street slump has a number of causes, as mentioned above: there is the long-term shift to online shopping, the lack of passing traffic and the negative effects of the previous recession , among But is it a sign that we're headed towards another recession ?

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “Q2 GDP now looks set to be awful — we’re revising down our forecast for quarter-on-quarter growth to zero from 0.2%.

Meanwhile, respected think tank NIESR has warned that the UK economy may shrink by 0.2% in the current quarter after fears that there has not been a “meaningful” recovery in May.

That would put Britain half-way into “a Brexit-induced recession” says The Guardian.

Reuters also says May’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys “pointed to the economy being close to stagnation”, but the news agency noted that “they were similarly gloomy in the first quarter when official data turned out strong despite business concerns about Brexit”.

“In truth, it is not hard to work out what has happened. The economy was prepared for our departure from the EU on 29 March, and has been damaged by Parliament’s decision to postpone that,” writes Matthew Lynn in The Spectator.

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Last week we saw the rates stay quite stagnant with not a lot of momentous market movements. However, this all changed on Friday morning when the Pound took

Worse than that though is the fact that the Government are currently running a £20 Billion deficit on the UK current account. They're having to borrow to spend, and that 's unforgivable after ten years of relative stability when they should have been making plans for any future recession and set aside

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Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?
Is the UK headed for recession?

He argues that with stockpiling being unwound, uncertainty being prolonged and the EU already moving in far more statist, high-tax direction, “you would have to work pretty hard to come up with a less stable system, and that is hitting confidence and investment”.

Nevertheless sterling still took a hit on Monday as currency traders digested the latest economic figures “which suggest the chance of the UK falling into recession is rising”, says Simon English in the London Evening Standard.

This may mean “the Bank of England could be spurred into cutting interest rates” he writes, with markets pricing in a 30% chance of the Monetary Policy Committee cutting base rates before the end of this year.

With Brexit still undecided combined with ongoing trade friction between the US and China, “the numbers are likely to get worse”, warns 24/7 Wall Street’s Douglas McIntyre.

“If the United Kingdom falls into recession, it is more likely that a tottering EU economy will as well. The United Kingdom remains a key to the region’s economy, even as it splits from its former partners,” he adds.

MSN are empowering Women In Sport this summer. Find out more about our campaign and the charity fighting to promote the transformational and lifelong rewards of exercise for women and girls in the UK here.

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