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Money HDE consumption barometer: German consumers are recovering from the corona scare

06:30  02 june  2020
06:30  02 june  2020 Source:   handelsblatt.com

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Mr. Rogers once said, “When I was a boy and I would see scary things in the news, my mom would say to me ‘Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping.’”

Der Textileinzelhandel leidet besonders unter der Konsumzurückhaltung. © dpa The textile retail sector is particularly suffering from consumer restraint.

The HDE consumption barometer for June makes a strong leap up, but from a low level. A further recovery seems likely.

The worst seems to be over - at least that's what German consumers believe. After two sharp falls, the HDE consumption barometer skyrocketed by almost three points in June. There has never been such an increase since the start of data collection in 2017.

Despite this jump, the index is still at 93.51 points, the second lowest level ever. However, a further recovery in the coming months seems likely.

The main reason for the brightened mood is likely to be the easing of the past few weeks, so that numerous everyday activities are now possible again after the weeks-long corona lockdown .

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Similarly, coal consumption appears to be recovering from a trough of 43% to currently 75% of 2019 levels, indicating that some production is resuming. Unsurprisingly, sectors and product groups recover at different speeds, thus requiring distinct approaches. Stock prices fell across all sectors in

In our conversations, business leaders are asking whether the market drawdown truly signals a recession, how bad a Covid-19 recession would be , what the scenarios are for growth and recovery , and whether there will be any lasting structural impact from the unfolding crisis.

Contrary to some skeptical forecasts, this easing has not led to rising infection rates with Covid-19. "The virus is largely contained in Europe," say the Commerzbank economists.

The consumption barometer is based on a representative consumer survey and is calculated monthly by the Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI) for the HDE trade association. It predicts consumer behavior in the next three months.

According to the survey, consumers expect that the economy will recover strongly in the coming months , that their personal income situation will improve noticeably again and that they will therefore want to buy more consumer goods again. Nevertheless, they expect prices to rise overall.

Hope for a resumption of consumption also comes from the fact that the inner cities are gradually filling up again. In the week from May 10th to May 16th, only 34 percent fewer customers were in stores than in normal times. The week before, there were 38 percent fewer.

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“This is particularly true if long-haul aviation fails to recover . This has been a very strong source of oil demand growth in recent years but the longer we are at He said securing a green economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis will require deliberate policy measures from governments: “This is where

As a society, we ’ re only as safe as our most vulnerable people. During the COVID-19 outbreak, the elderly and those with health conditions are more vulnerable to the coronavirus and the poor are more vulnerable to its economic impact. That makes us all more vulnerable too.

data from the online platform Open Table also show that the number of visits to the restaurants registered on the platform was on average already half as high as a year ago. In addition, there is gradually a little more movement in local public transport. And the daily mileage index for trucks from the Federal Statistical Office is also showing a marked upward trend.

"This mainly affects the unemployed and young professionals"

The Munich Ifo Institute expects a gradual and, above all, significant recovery in the economy after the historic slump in the economy at the beginning of the second quarter. On average, the companies “consider normalization of their own business situation within nine months to be the most likely case,” says Ifo economic director Timo Wollmershäuser. In the second half of 2021, Ifo says economic output is likely to return to pre-crisis levels.

US data give Dax a strong weekly finish

 US data give Dax a strong weekly finish FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - A surprisingly solid US job market was the icing on the cake of an impressive week on the stock market on Friday. The Dax rose strongly for the fourth day in a row by 3.36 percent to 12,847.68 points. This brings the weekly profit to almost 11 percent - that was the best trading week since the beginning of April. The leading German index has almost caught up with the historically unprecedented corona crash.

Stores and factories are slowly starting to reopen in China, and supply chains are starting to return to normal.

The German economy shrank by a staggering 66% from 1944 to 1946, then grew at an annual average rate of 12% over the subsequent decade. Recoveries from the global financial crisis, in contrast, have been more sluggish. The Italian economy entered the covid-19 crisis having failed to regain the

Various early indicators for the labor market also signal that the feared crash will probably not take place. “The same shock would have plummeted employment 20 years ago. Despite the immense faults, this is not to be expected now, ”says IAB expert Enzo Weber. However, the drop in willingness to hire companies is critical: “With low capacity utilization and immense uncertainty, new hires are slumping. This particularly affects the unemployed and young professionals. ”

How disastrous April was for parts of the economy is shown by the retail sales published on Friday. All in all, the retail companies realized 6.5 percent less in real terms in April 2020 than in April 2019. In comparison to the previous month, calendar and seasonally adjusted sales fell by 5.3 percent in real terms. This was the strongest decline in sales compared to a previous month since January 2007. The

winner was again the retail trade in food, beverages and tobacco: Here, sales in April rose by 6.2 percent in real terms compared to the same month last year. In contrast, retail sales of non-food dropped by 14.5 percent in real terms. The largest drop in sales since 1994 was seen in the retail sale of textiles, clothing, shoes and leather goods, with a real decrease of 70.7 percent compared to April 2019.

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In both countries, the scientists found that the kinds of limited social distancing that the U.K. had been implementing – a “mitigation” approach – would exceed health care systems’ maximum capacities “many times over.” In the U.K., roughly 250,000 people would die from the virus. In the U.S., the

In other words, every component of aggregate demand – consumption , capital spending, exports – is in unprecedented freefall. If they are financed through standard government debt, interest rates would rise sharply, and the recovery would be smothered in its cradle.

"The darkest hour is before sunrise", HRI President Bert Rürup quotes a saying . "April was certainly the darkest hour in the post-war German economy - and consequently the sun is slowly rising again in May."

More: After the shutdown: Retail sinks in excess goods

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DAX ends Monday in minus .
On Monday the German stock market showed its volatile side. © Provided by Finanz.net GmbH Hannelore Foerster / Getty Images The DAX gave way to the start of Monday trading: at 12,722.68 points, it rose 0.97 percent lower in the new trading week. In the course of trading, investors only became braver for a short time and lifted the stock market barometer into the profit zone. Ultimately, there was a loss of 0.22 percent to 12,819.59 units on the course board.

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