Money German economy relies more about - bad autumn statements

11:10  27 october  2021
11:10  27 october  2021 Source:   de.reuters.com

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BERLIN, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Germany 's economy is facing an uncomfortable autumn as supply chain bottlenecks take a toll on the industry and affect growth in the fourth quarter, Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe said on Monday. With the current supply chain problems, the German economy is expected to grow by around 0.5% in the fourth quarter, Wohlrabe said, adding that the problems were affecting retail stores and are expected to impact the Christmas season. Rising prices pressure is continuing, and many of Germany 's industrial firms want to increase their prices, Wohlrabe said.

Already we know that the German economy contracted in 0.1% in the second quarter. But mounting evidence now suggests that the third quarter will offer a repeat performance of declining output. That's because manufacturing supply chains are integrated across multiple borders. Meaning that it is near impossible for manufacturing to slow down in one country without also doing similar in another country. That's particularly bad for Germany because around 20% of its economy comes from manufacturing.

Berlin (Reuters) - the German economy has made more sales for the summer evidence.

ARCHIV: Die Skyline von Berlin bei Sonnenuntergang, Deutschland, 2. November 2014. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch © Reuters Archives: The skyline of Berlin at Sunset, Germany, November 2, 2014. Reuters / Fabrizio Bensch

In September, the commercial economy took 1.2 percent more than in the previous month, as the Federal Statistical Office on Wednesday announced. Sales were 13.6 percent above the level of February 2020, the month before the start of the restrictions by the Corona Pandemic in Germany. There had been a minus of 0.9 percent in August. This indicator is calculated based on the sales tax advance registrations from the fields of industry, construction, trade, service providers, energy and water supply.

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The economy of Germany is a highly developed social market economy . It has the largest national economy in Europe, the fourth-largest by nominal GDP in the world, and fifth by GDP (PPP).

Germany 's economy shrank by 2.2% in the first three months of this year as the coronavirus pandemic pushed it into recession, official figures indicate. It was the biggest quarterly fall since 2009, when the country was engulfed in the global financial crisis. Economists expect a deeper slump in the second quarter of the year, as the full effects of the lockdown become apparent. Germany , along with just about every other economy on the planet, has been hit by the combination of official restrictions on movement and commercial activity, as well as by personal choices to avoid the risk of infection.

In the past summer quarter, gross domestic product is likely to grown 2.2 percent after prognosis of economists, after it had already increased by 1.6 percent in spring. In the current fourth quarter, it should only be enough to a small plus. "Partly this is due to the fact that the business in many service sectors had already largely recovered in early summer, so that the growth rates have normalized here," said Commerzbank Economist Ralph Solveen. "There are also the increasing material bottlenecks that hamper production in almost all sectors of the industry and partly also in the service sector." In addition, the Corona infection numbers rise rapidly. That could burden the economy even without a formal Lockdown, said the expert.

Federal Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier wants to introduce the new government's new growth forecasts in the morning. According to insiders, only one plus of 2.6 percent is expected for this year - instead of 3.5 percent hitherto. Next year, the economy should increase by 4.1 percent, which are 0.5 percentage points more than previously thought. The recovery from the Corona crisis is thus pushing stronger in the next year. As the reasons, the supply bottlenecks of the industry, raw material deficiency and high energy prices apply.

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