Money economy: "If all poorer will come from the crisis"

05:30  25 september  2022
05:30  25 september  2022 Source:   pressfrom.com

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The immense loss of purchasing power and the cost explosion due to high energy prices for companies lead the German economy straight into the recession. Marc Schattenberg from Deutsche Bank Research even sees a decline in economic output of 3.5 percent next year.

Nach Einschätzung von Volkswirten dürften alle ärmer aus der Krise kommen. © Christoph Soeder/dpa According to economists, all poorer should come out of the crisis.

other economists, according to a dpa survey, see the effects a bit milder, but the economy is still clearly on a downturn. "The economic downturn will also leave traces on the labor market," said Fritzi Köhler-Geib, chief economist of the state sponsoring bank KfW.

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Above all, private households and their purchasing power have to make it difficult to springs. "Due to the high inflation, the financial situation of private households has deteriorated considerably since the beginning of the year," commented Köhler Geib. “In the second quarter, the available income of private households after deducting the inflation rate was 1.9 percent lower than in the previous year's quarter. In the second half of the year, real income is expected to continue to decrease, »she said.

"The loss of purchasing power dampens consumption and together with the increased interest rates also private housing." Marc Schattenberg sees it similarly: "A large part of the households will have to cope with noticeable real income losses." Katharina Utermöhl, economist at the Allianz Group, sums up the situation even more clearly: "We will all get out of the crisis."

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not enough in consciousness

Germany through the most severe crisis of the past 50 years. "This puts the big financial crisis and the euro debt crisis in the shade," she said. The inflation pain must now be cushioned. On the one hand through the state's fiscal policy measures, but also through savings behavior of private individuals.

There has not yet been enough awareness here, said Christoph Siebecke from Oldenburgische Landesbank. «Politics should not affect the price too much. Otherwise the households will not react, »he said to the discussion about the possible capping of energy prices. "The savings of savings for consumers must remain noticeable," says Veronika Grimm, member of the Federal Government's Council of Experts, the so -called "economic methods".

For them, one of the key to how Germany will be able to cushion the crisis, the provision of enough energy. «You should exploit all options on the offer page. The range of energy must be increased, »she emphasized. "I have the feeling that not everyone is aware that the renewable energies alone will not be available quickly enough as a replacement," she added. For example, two coal -fired power plants went back to the net. "The nuclear power plants should continue to run in the coming year and not only be on business," she said.

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Kartellamt is required

Siebecke in this context asked the energy companies to immediately pass on discounts on the markets to customers. "The world market prices are now far away from the highs that we have seen before," he said. "It would be good if the cartel office could look even more."

Deutsche-Bank-Volkswirt Marc Schattenberg believes that the really big problems will only be rolled up on Germany in the first and second quarter of the next year. If the gas storage tank, well -filled before the winter, has to be emptied and gas on a large scale had to be bought for refilling, the price will continue to rise. At the same time, the municipal utility contracts that are often reduced at the turn of the year would eat strong holes in the pockets to private gas customers.

The economists expect more insolvencies to occur in the course of the energy price crisis - especially for smaller companies with a high proportion of energy costs. Export will also suffer because the trading partners abroad would also have to accept loss of purchasing power, said Köhler-Geib. In this context,

also advocated moderate wage financial statements in the upcoming collective bargaining. "The argument of the full order books will lose strength," said Schattenberg. And Veronika Grimm emphasized: «The negotiation power of the unions is great due to the shortage of skilled workers. On the other hand, many companies are under pressure. It remains to be seen what that means for the degrees. »

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