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UK News Two week circuit breaker lockdowns 'do not work', say experts

00:55  25 october  2020
00:55  25 october  2020 Source:   dailymail.co.uk

Chancellor Rishi Sunak warns circuit-breaker lockdown could cost jobs

  Chancellor Rishi Sunak warns circuit-breaker lockdown could cost jobs Rishi Sunak backed the regional approach as Labour called for a circuit-breaker lockdown.There are growing calls, particularly from Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, for a two-week circuit breaker to be implemented as a means of slowing the Covid-19 infection rate.

that her mini- circuit breaker lockdown appeared to be working , despite her decision to extend and then replace it, has raised eyebrows among experts . of the circuit breaker for Sage, said it would be “tricky” to see any meaningful results at the end of any period of restrictions lasting only two weeks .

Professor Paul Hunter said there is no specific evidence of circuit breakers working in bringing numbers down . The government has so far resisted implementing a circuit breaker lockdown , while work and pensions secretary Therese Coffey said this morning she did not think it was the right

a screen shot of Nicola Sturgeon: MailOnline logo © Provided by Daily Mail MailOnline logo

Experts have warned that two-week circuit breaker lockdowns 'do not work' as they point to Scotland's extension of their coronavirus restrictions.

Nicola Sturgeon introduced a 16-day circuit-breaker which forced pubs and licensed restaurants in five health board areas across the central belt to close - impacting 3.4 million people - earlier this month.

The temporary measures, which had been set to end on October 25, also saw other venues across the country restricted to only operating indoors between 6am and 6pm and being banned from from serving alcohol inside.

Soaring infections and deaths... but do the claims justify lockdowns?

  Soaring infections and deaths... but do the claims justify lockdowns? With half of Britain set to be plunged into stricter lockdowns from midnight tomorrow, you could be forgiven for thinking that, amidst all the doom and gloom, Covid-19 has never been so severe. But as ROSS CLARK reveals, things might not be anywhere near as bad as the fear-mongers would have you think… Claim: ICU beds in Liverpool are already 95 per cent fullReality: Fewer ICU beds are occupied than last yearOn paper the 95 per cent statistic, revealed earlier this week by Liverpool city councillor Paul Brant, conjures up a disturbing image of overflowing hospitals and inadequate care.

Circuit - breaker lockdowns (sometimes called “firebreaks,” a reference to wildfire mitigations) also differ Others said that until a comprehensive contact tracing system was in place, lifting lockdown orders Most experts do not believe that a vaccine will be widely available until spring, if not later.

NHS data shows a national circuit - breaker lockdown isn't required to protect the health serviceCredit: Getty Images - Getty. And there are fewer Professor Carl Heneghan, from the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University, said the data did not support calls for national circuit breakers .

But Ms Sturgeon later announced a change of plan by extending the restrictions for a further week before introducing a new five-tier lockdown system on Thursday.

The First Minister said that her mini-circuit breaker lockdown appeared to be working despite the drastic change of tack.

But experts have warned that the short-term nature of the clampdown meant it was too soon to say if it had an impact due to the incubation period of Covid-19 as the measures were 'not really getting at the fundamentals'.

The warning comes after Scotland recorded 1,433 new coronavirus infections and 11 reported deaths in the past 24 hours.

Nicola Sturgeon sitting at a table using a laptop: Nicola Sturgeon introduced a 16-day circuit-breaker which forced pubs and licensed restaurants in five health board areas across the central belt to close - impacting 3.4 million people - earlier this month © Provided by Daily Mail Nicola Sturgeon introduced a 16-day circuit-breaker which forced pubs and licensed restaurants in five health board areas across the central belt to close - impacting 3.4 million people - earlier this month

Hugh Pennington, Emeritus Professor of Microbiology at Aberdeen University, told The Telegraph: 'There's the old argument that if we hadn't done (the mini-circuit breaker), cases would have gone up faster. But that's a guess, and the figures haven't come tumbling down.

Wales 'set for circuit-breaker lockdown in the next few days'

  Wales 'set for circuit-breaker lockdown in the next few days' Wales could be just days away from a full 'circuit-breaker' lockdown in an effort to stop the growing spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The government is speaking with the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies about what further action it can take as the crisis enters the crucial winter months.It comes after the Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford announced he intends to bar entry from English regions with high levels of Covid-19 if Boris Johnson fails to impose UK-wide travel restrictions.

A circuit - breaker is a tight set of restrictions - it could feel a lot like the original lockdown - but crucially it would be for a fixed period of time. Israel is currently using a circuit - breaker after its "traffic-light" system did not get infections under control. The government said there were some "preliminary signs

Boris Johnson is set to announce a two - week lockdown to tackle the second wave of coronavirus. And a government source has told The Sun Online the UK could face short, sharp lockdowns for the next Experts have warned coronavirus deaths could rise unless another lockdown is introduced

'They were always going to have difficulty in knowing how effective it was because the figures wouldn't have come through to really give them an indication as to whether it was having any effect at all.'

He also criticised Ms Sturgeon for claiming the restrictions would only be in place for 16 days and claimed that this was projected as a 'short-term measure' to avoid major backlash.

'It's got to be statistically significant, it's the figures coming down that they're looking for. To expect that would happen within 16 days was unrealistic. At a guess, I'd say her reason for saying that was so she could say "I'm going to make things tough, but it's only for 16 days", to get people to buy into it.

'If you close the pubs, you're going to stop pub outbreaks. You're addressing little bits of the transmission route, but not really getting at the fundamentals, which is making sure people who have the virus, and their contacts, are kept away from everybody else by self-isolating.'

England's Covid-19 R rate DROPS for second week

  England's Covid-19 R rate DROPS for second week The UK's chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance said in a TV briefing today that social distancing and lockdown rules are keeping the R rate lower than it was in the spring outbreak.But the Government's chief scientific adviser warned that the epidemic is 'growing everywhere' and that more action must be taken to bring down the R rate, which is somewhere between 1.3 and 1.5 for the UK meaning cases will continue to surge exponentially.

The 2020 Singapore circuit breaker measures, abbreviated as CB, was a stay-at-home order and cordon sanitaire implemented as a preventive measure by the Government of Singapore in response

Experts are urging the Government to replace it with a circuit breaker lockdown to buy some time "We know that we have missed half-term for a lot of children, we know that this will be two weeks Prof Reicher underlined his belief that the current system was not working in an op-ed published on

chart © Provided by Daily Mail chart © Provided by Daily Mail

Scotland's new 0-4  tier system, how it works:

Nicola Sturgeon laid out plans for a new 0-4 tier lockdown today. Here is how it would work.

Level 0

As close to normal as possible. Broadly in line with the situation in Scotland in August when the virus was suppressed but still around.

At this level people would be able to meet indoors with eight people from three households and most businesses would be open safety measures in place.

Level 1

Household meetings would reduce to six people from two households but there would still be a reasonable degree of normality overall.

Level 2

Restrictions broadly similar to those currently in place currently outside Scotland's central belt. It includes  limitations on hospitality and no gatherings inside people's homes.

Level 3

Broadly similar to the tougher restrictions which currently apply across the central belt  - including Glasgow and Edinburgh, with much of hospitality being closed completely. But restaurants would be able to be open 'at least partially'.

Senior Government advisor says UK needs national lockdown

  Senior Government advisor says UK needs national lockdown The regius professor of medicine at the University of Oxford told BBC Radio 4's Today programme called for a shutdown of society and economy to suppress coronavirus.Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at the University of Oxford, advocated a national circuit-breaker as he suggested the Government had lost control of an 'eye-watering' number of coronavirus cases.

Matt Hancock said the Government would do whatever necessary to stop the spread of It came as even more Brits were handed drastic local lockdown restrictions with Lancashire, Merseyside Asked if the Prime Minister was considering a two - week so-called " circuit break" of new national Covid-19

immediate " circuit breaker " was the best way to control cases.. Government scientific advisers suggested a two to three week period of tightened Mr Khan said : "I think for a short period of time having additional restrictions to stop the virus spreading and dealing with it is far more effective in the

Both Levels 2 and 3 are intended to apply for relatively short periods of time to bring transmission under control.

Level 4

This would kick in when 'transmission rates are, or are threatening to become, very high with corresponding pressure on the NHS and perhaps the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed'.

Closer to a full lockdown, with non-essential shops closed. But six people from up two households could still meet outdoors, there would be no limit on outdoor exercise for individuals, manufacturing and construction businesses would stay open with safety measures in place.

Ms Sturgeon added: 'We do not envisage returning to a situation as severe as the first lockdown imposed back in late March.'

Ms Sturgeon's scientific advisers themselves warned on Thursday it was 'too early to detect any impact on transmission from the restrictions introduced on October 9'.

But she insisted during a press conference on Thursday that Scotland was making 'progress in tackling the virus'.

Latest figures suggest that the rate of spread across Scotland has indeed slowed in recent weeks across all but two health boards – Borders and the Western Isles –since the new measures were introduced.

But this is has largely been attributed to the ban on household mixing rather than the closure of the hospitality industry.

Wales could go into lockdown from FRIDAY

  Wales could go into lockdown from FRIDAY The details of the plan were contained in a letter from John Pockett, a regional director of the Confederation of Passenger Transport, to its members in Wales, which was posted on Twitter. In the letter, dated October 16, John Pockett writes: 'The Welsh Government will announce on Monday a 'circuit break' lockdown to begin at 1800 on Friday 23 October and continue in force until 0001 on Monday 9 November.'We have met with officials this morning, but as this is a very fast moving situation with decisions still to be made by ministers, much of the detail has not yet been agreed by the Government.

In the week leading up to Friday October 9, the average rise in the number of cases across the country was 52 per cent up on the previous week.

In the week leading up to Friday, October 16, there was an increase of 29 per cent on the previous week.

And on Thursday, this was up by just 7 per cent on the previous week.

But the data showed that the pandemic was far from being 'under control' as test positivity continues to rise along with the number of deaths.

The infection numbers have also remained relatively static in the 20-39 age range despite infringements on social gatherings.

The First Minister's newly-suggested tiered approach means those in the highest band would see the shutters come down once again on the Scottish high street while trying to keep some other businesses going.

Outlining the new Level 0 - 4 system live on television she held out an olive branch to hospitality businesses who blasted the harsh new restrictions, which would place some level of barre on trading at all levels.

She said while she would listen to arguments about trying to keep some pubs and restaurants open at higher tiers but she would not promise to make changes.

She warned 'it is possible that the whole country could be placed in the same level' and refused to rule out some parts of the country immediately being placed in Level 4.

Under the new 0-4 tier system, the restrictions currently in place in the central belt, where pubs are closed, would be Level Three. Under Level Four even non-essential retail shops would close again. But Ms Sturgeon pledged to keep schools open.

Ms Sturgeon said Level One and Level Two are the closest to normal the country can be without effective treatment or a vaccine, while the highest grade would be more similar to a full lockdown.

The Scottish Retail Consortium said closing non-essential shops in Level Four - the highest tier - will do little to reduce coronavirus rates.

The First Minister gave details of the scheme - which is subject to being ratified by the Scottish parliament next week - despite a furious backlash from restaurants and retailers over the prospect of heightened restrictions staying in place indefinitely.

It is thought that the new restrictions will see two-thirds of  hospitality businesses close in the coming months and put more than 50 per cent of jobs at risk.

Industry bodies have now launched a legal bid aimed at overturning the proposals following a judicial review.

Read more

Tier 4 restrictions drawn up to close restaurants and shops .
Stricter Covid-19 measures could be brought in if the Government's Tier 3 restrictions fail to bring down infection rates. The North East is already living under tighter rules.Swathes of the North-East have been plunged into Tier 3 local lockdowns in recent weeks, which has seen pubs and bars close and a ban enforced on different households meeting.

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