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UK News What the latest data tells us about the spread of COVID-19

01:00  30 october  2020
01:00  30 october  2020 Source:   news.sky.com

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However, with the COVID - 19 pandemic we are in the unfortunate situation that the number of total cases is not known. Only a fraction of total cases How big a fraction of total cases get confirmed depends on how much a country actually tests. To understand the spread of the disease we need to

But First a Caveat: When discussing what the data tells us , I’ll be referring to the overwhelming We needed to avoid overloading our hospitals, and we have. The Covid 19 outbreak is tragic. Transmission — Where am I at the greatest risk, how does it spread ? Ultimately the greatest risk is

Today saw more worrying data about the spread of coronavirus in England.

a group of people walking down the street: Test and Trace is reaching more people each week, the problem is that the number of cases keep rising © Getty Test and Trace is reaching more people each week, the problem is that the number of cases keep rising

Cases and deaths remained at the high levels seen last week, as did hospitalisations.

Across the country, the spread shows little sign of slowing.

As before, the highest numbers are in the North West, but the highest rates of growth are in other regions.

A useful indication of the state of the outbreak is the number of beds occupied by patients suffering from COVID-19.

chart: Weekly case rates of COVID-19 across regions in England © Other Weekly case rates of COVID-19 across regions in England

In the East of England, that figure jumped from 295 to 454, a 55% rise.

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COVID - 19 is thought to spread mainly through close contact from person to person, including between people who are physically near each other (within about 6 People who are infected but do not show symptoms can also spread the virus to others. We are still learning about how the virus spreads and

In the South East, it went from 325 to 528, a rise of 62%.

Large percentage increases don't mean that much when the absolute numbers are low - after all, if you go from 10 to 20 cases you've had a percentage rise of 100%.

application: Weekly coronavirus hospital admissions across regions in England © Other Weekly coronavirus hospital admissions across regions in England

But this does suggests the virus is now spreading across the country, even in regions where it has previously been low.

Things are not as bad as they were in March - thanks to continued social distancing, the doubling rate appears to be around two weeks.

Back in March, it was between 3 and 3.5, which meant cases were roughly quadrupling every week.


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Even if you take the estimate of Imperial's REACT study, which suggests that the doubling rate is nine days, you're still some way off the terrifyingly steep growth of the peak of the pandemic.

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Coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID - 19 ) is a contagious respiratory and vascular disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a specific type of coronavirus

This article documents the chronology and epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in March 2020, the virus which causes the coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID - 19 ) and is responsible for the COVID - 19 pandemic.

Still, stopping the spread is not going to be easy.

So what about the measures the government has taken?

Clearly, Test and Trace in England is struggling.

For the third week in a row, official figures showed that it reached around 60% of contacts in England, far less than it needs to if it's going to restrict the virus effectively.

To its credit, Test and Trace is reaching greater numbers of people each week, the problem is that the number of cases keeps on increasing.

According to the most recent data for 15 to 21 October, the service reached 0.6% more people than the week before.

Yet in the same week, cases transferred to the system rose by 25% - the improvement is just too small to stem the flow.

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This, of course, is why we have tougher restrictions.

It's now been two-and-a-half weeks since Boris Johnson introduced the three-tier system of coronavirus restrictions for England.

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Country-by-country data on mortality risk of the COVID - 19 pandemic. Case fatality rate. How did confirmed deaths and cases change over time? What does the data on deaths and cases tell us about the mortality risk of COVID - 19 ? To understand the risks and respond appropriately we would

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If they were going to have an impact, you'd expect to start to see it about now.

Liverpool was the first city to go into Tier 3 lockdown - and, since the restrictions came in, its case rate has noticeably declined.

There are still lots of infections, including among older people, and Liverpool City Council warns of "widespread community transmission of the virus".

Nevertheless, the decline is now more than two weeks old, and regional estimates of the R number put it below one.

Does this mean the restrictions are working? The answer is complicated, because cases in Liverpool began to decline before Tier 3 was introduced.

But it's possible that warning of Tier 3 may have caused the effect, and it seems likely that the measures accelerated the decline.

Critics will argue that the tier restrictions are reactive rather than proactive, so they invariably come too late.

But it's rare these days that things are pointing in the right direction, amid a deluge of dismal data, we have to take every glimmer of hope we can get.

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