Ireland Call on election evening: How the postal vote forecast and result influenced

17:20  26 september  2021
17:20  26 september  2021 Source:   zeit.de

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 in the "Handelsblatt" has recruited SPD chancellor candidate Scholz around the liberals. But the FDP boss dates to be a coalition. "We only enter into a middle government," Lindner said. © Photo: Kay Nietfeld / DPA FDP boss Christian Lindner introduces the election call to his party on a press conference. FDP boss Christian Lindner has evidenced doubts about an traffic light coalition by SPD, Greens and his own party after the general election.

Why is there already first numbers, although the polling stations are just closing? And why do the values ​​often change even strong? Questions and answers on election night

Statt Wahlurne: Wahlbriefeinwurf in den Postkasten © Offberg / Imago Images Instead of ballot box: Election lettering in the mailbox

A common phenomenon on election evening is that the results of some parties with progressive time are still noticeable up or up. The so-called forecast at 6 pm differs from the later principles and the preliminary end result, which the federal electoral manager usually proclaims in the late evening or at night.

That has followed: For the Bundestag election 2002 For example, Union Chancellor candidate Edmund Stoiber has already seen as Federal Chancellor, in the morning afterwards: the Social Democrat Gerhard Schröder could continue to govern. Recently, the AfD chewed in state elections such as in Rhineland-Palatinate or Saxony-Anhalt in the early evening for results, which shrank far into the loss zone during the evening. In the following, we explain where this momentum comes from election evening and what will be special for this election.

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How do the numbers occur for 18 o'clock?

Video: Forsa: Hardly changing shortly before the election - FDP stronger (Glomex)

so that you can forecast a forecast of the election result at 18 o'clock, the election research institutes drive a low effort. The high tension expected first numbers at 6 pm feet largely on the answers, which give voting the electoral researchers when leaving the polling class. The institutes place small stands for selected places and ask the emerging for information. The results will then process the election researchers based on their experiences from previous elections and prefirection surveys. The 18 o'clock forecast also includes the possible differences between letter and urn vices, as explained a spokeswoman of Infratest Dimap.

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How exactly are the numbers?

The high proportion of postal voters and voters to be expected this time makes the forecast of the end result less securely than before. "The 18-o'clock numbers can have a slightly greater difference to the end result than four years ago," says the Infratest spokeswoman. However, the result is concretized for hour by hour, because after 6 pm first intermediate results from the counting incorporated into the so-called principal calculations in previously selected polling stations.

What is the influence of the letter voters?

That postal voters at this general election will make up a significantly higher proportion of the votes, federal voting ladder Georg Thiel led back to the Corona Pandemic in August. He goes off a doubling compared to the election of 2017, at that time, 29 percent had tuned by letter. Thiel expects "in each case over 40 percent". The postal election envelopes received by 6 pm by 6 pm are stored on separate places and counted from specially formed electoral boards within the constituency . The results also go to the princely calculations.

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is interesting, especially with regard to the AFD: it makes targeted mood against the postal voting, AFD supporters should therefore be more likely to go to the urn today. Thus, they are more strongly represented in the post-election institutes on the spot than in the postal votes. Since the postal voting votes only in the course of the evening into the principal invoices, the share of the AFD can decline, the other parties increase. However, the institutes try to correct this effect from their experiences. In an expected low difference between Union and SPD, the effect can still make the election evening particularly exciting.

What influence does the postal ballot generally have?

The absentee ballot has been possible since mid-August, six weeks before the election date. At that time, the Union was in surveys at 25, the SPD at 19 percent and barely one believed then that this could operate in the opposite. Because of the high proportion of letter voters, the choice of many voters is completely unaffected by everything that happens in the high and final phase of the election campaign. For example, this can be the prosecutor search in the Federal Ministry of Finance, with which the other parties against SPD chancellor candidate OLAF Scholz election campaign made it, the discussion rounds of Chancellor's candidates can be on television or the cake of the CDU and the Greens in the surveys.

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