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US News Killing the nuke deal won't bring the regime change Iran hawks want

21:25  16 may  2018
21:25  16 may  2018 Source:   thehill.com

Donald Trump could win Nobel Peace Prize if Iran nuclear deal is fixed – Johnson

  Donald Trump could win Nobel Peace Prize if Iran nuclear deal is fixed – Johnson Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is in the United States trying to persuade the president not to ditch the agreement.Donald Trump would be in line for the Nobel Peace Prize if he can fix the Iran nuclear deal, according to Boris Johnson.

As for the Iranian people, the demise of the deal and the re-imposition of the nuclear sanctions will severely hurt their daily lives, while strengthening the hardline sectors of the regime. Unfortunately, the Trump coalition has not taken into account the recent history of regime changes in Iran.

If international sanctions continue to devastate Iran’s economy and desperate street protests follow, the Revolutionary Guard will likely declare martial law.

Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

 Video: Iran Says US Sanctions Intended to Derail Efforts to Save Nuclear Deal (Provided by Wochit News)

The JCPOA was signed between Iran, the United States and world powers in the summer of 2015. Being hailed as the most comprehensive nonproliferation agreement of the past three decades, this agreement was forged and supported by a large coalition of American and Iranian diplomats, scientists, journalist, military personnel and peace organizations.

Trump Tells Macron the U.S. Will Withdraw From Iran Nuclear Deal

  Trump Tells Macron the U.S. Will Withdraw From Iran Nuclear Deal President Trump’s decision, while long anticipated and widely telegraphed, plunges America’s relations with European allies into deep uncertainty. They have committed to staying in the deal, raising the prospect of a diplomatic and economic clash as the United States reimposes stringent sanctions on Iran.It also raises the prospect of increased tensions with Russia and China, which also are parties to the agreement.The decision fulfills one of Mr.

“I think Iran is bringing us close to war with its belligerent activity in Iraq and Syria,” he told CBS This “Even if somebody said to you that the regime was in full compliance with the nuclear deal, it The only solution to the problem of possible Iranian nuclear weapons “is to change the regime itself.”

Regime change is the replacement of one regime with another. Use of the term dates to at least 1925. Regime change may replace all or part of the state's most critical leadership system, administrative apparatus, or bureaucracy. It can be the deliberate product of outside force, as in warfare.

The deal capped Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons while ensuring the lifting of crippling international sanctions that would allow Iran's civil society access to the global economy. Many supporters of the deal had hoped the economic opening would strengthen Iran's predominantly young and moderate population to engage the world and push back against Iranian isolationists that opposed the accord.

In the aftermath of the deal, U.S. businesses, such as Boeing, were preparing for product sales to the 80 million untapped population of Iran that should have resulted in billions of dollars in profits for U.S. companies and a boost to American jobs.

But Donald Trump, not believing in the potential profits of the Iran deal, withdrew the United States from President Obama's signature foreign policy achievement, and distanced the U.S. from its European allies, France, Germany and the UK who maintain support for the nuclear deal.

President Trump Tells John Kerry: 'Stay Away' From Iran Nuclear Deal

  President Trump Tells John Kerry: 'Stay Away' From Iran Nuclear Deal President Donald Trump says former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry “can’t get over the fact that he had his chance and blew it” with Iran.President Donald Trump says former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry “can’t get over the fact that he had his chance and blew it” with Iran.

No doubt Iran wanted to have the requisite resources and capabilities to go nuclear it if decided that doing so was a national security imperative. As convinced as President Trump may be that the JCPOA is the “worst deal of all time,” key allies of the United States take a fundamentally different view.

Regime-change advocates were emboldened by the anti-government demonstrations that swept across Iran this past winter. For the first time Even if Trump gets regime change in Tehran, it may not be the sort he wants. Canceling the nuclear deal and increasing economic pressure on Iran

Without the nuclear provisions on Iran's program, the U.S. has voluntarily placed itself back on track for a military confrontation with Iran. A war of choice that could cost the U.S. thousands of servicemen lives and trillions in tax payer dollars.

US President Donald Trump © Getty US President Donald Trump As for the Iranian people, the demise of the deal and the re-imposition of the nuclear sanctions will severely hurt their daily lives, while strengthening the hardline sectors of the regime. Most noticeably, the Revolutionary Guard has thrived in the black markets created by sanctions. The implementation of the umbrella sanctions will again consolidate the Revolutionary Guard's economic power. 

The hope of President Trump and his allies in the Middle East is to apply endless economic pressure on Iran to force its people into further misery, and consequently into desperate street protests that will topple the regime and bring forth "democracy." Unfortunately, the Trump coalition has not taken into account the recent history of regime changes in Iran. When Iranian governments have been toppled through chaotic and violent street protests, the democratic sectors are damaged while strong men rise to power.

'So Misguided.' Barack Obama Weighs In On Trump's Decision to Pull U.S. From Iran Nuclear Deal

  'So Misguided.' Barack Obama Weighs In On Trump's Decision to Pull U.S. From Iran Nuclear Deal Former President Barack Obama immediately criticized President Donald Trump’s announcement Tuesday that the United States would withdraw from the Iranian Nuclear deal – one of Obama’s signature foreign policy achievements – as misguided and irresponsible. “In a democracy, there will always be changes in policies and priorities from one Administration to the next. But the consistent flouting of agreements that our country is a party to risks eroding America’s credibility, and puts us at odds with the world’s major powers,” Obama in a rare and lengthy statement Tuesday, a little over after President Trump announced his decision.

“The only long-term solution is regime change in Tehran,” Bolton told Breitbart News Daily on The former US ambassador to the United Nations claimed that Iran’s leaders “are the principal threat to Even at the final stage of negotiations on the breakthrough Iran nuclear deal agreed in 2015, Bolton

President Trump has never been a fan of the Iran nuclear deal. In the backdrop to these delicate negotiations? His new national security adviser, John Bolton. Mr. Bolton has been vocal about killing the nuclear deal and supporting the Mujahedeen Khalq, or the M.E.K. It’s a fringe dissident group that

In the 1900s, when the British installed King Reza Pahlavi and his son Mohamad-Reza through rowdy street protests, Iran's constitutional government was damaged and replaced by the Pahlavi dictatorship. And in 1979, when the Pahlavis were toppled, the democratic wing of the resistance was destroyed by chaotic street protests that brought to power another strongman, Ayatollah Khomeini.

Throughout history, a sizable sector of Iranian society has believed in kings and strongmen ruling their country. Today, a large minority is still protesting in the streets for another strongman to rise and end the theocratic reign of the Ayatollahs. But short of a disastrous U.S. military ground invasion and occupation, the only group positioned for a takeover is the Revolutionary Guard.

A Revolutionary Guard takeover of Iran would again spell defeat for the democratic forces working to reform Iran's government. Through elections over the past decades, Iranian democrats have tried to infiltrate the theocratic system. They have recently elected reformists into the presidency and parliament with the goal of democratizing the system all the way up to the theocratic political posts of the Guardian Council and the Supreme Leader.

Why India is closely watching Donald Trump’s move on Iran nuclear deal

  Why India is closely watching Donald Trump’s move on Iran nuclear deal Why India is closely watching Donald Trump’s move on Iran nuclear dealTrump said on Tuesday the United States will withdraw from a 2015 international agreement designed to deny Tehran the ability to build nuclear weapons. “I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal,” Trump said ahead of the May 12 deadline for him to certify that Iran was in compliance of the deal.

The Iran deal—with permanent application of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s most Gerecht is not simply counting on the regime to fall of its own weight but wants to accelerate the That brings me to a final, and related, point. Gerecht and I have both made an analogy between Iran

Kept Iran Cyberattack Secret to Not Derail Nuke Deal. There is a growing group of influential Iran hawks who will lobby President Donald Trump to push for a regime change in Tehran, a divergence from the Obama administration policy, according to Politico."The policy of the United States should be

Hassan Rouhani wearing a hat © Provided by The Hill

The Guardian Council, a group of six civil jurists and six Islamic jurists who approve the designation of the Supreme Leader, are in part appointed by the Parliament. Many democrats within Parliament, who have been elected by the people, are working to strengthen the position of civil jurists in the Guardian Council, and to ultimately enhance the hand of Iran's electorate into regulating and or even dissolving the position of the theocratic strongman at the top.

But if international sanctions continue to devastate Iran's economy and desperate street protests follow, the Revolutionary Guard, led by a group of generals, will declare martial law and scrap the entire government for a new authoritarian system. Again, setting back democratic gains for decades.

Preservation of the Iran deal and further economic engagement with Iran will strengthen Iran's civil society to democratize the government, while adding security and economy to American interests.

The American and Iranian citizens, diplomats, scientists, journalist, military personnel and peace organizations, who supported the Iran deal and are a majority in their respective countries, should double down and apply pressure on their congress and parliament to keep the deal intact. They should push for an economic opening that will end the reign and military policies of strongmen.

Farshad Farahat, an Iranian-American actor, is a member of the Board of Directors of Ploughsares Fund, a global security foundation that supports initiatives to prevent the spread and use of nuclear weapons. Farshad serves as a member of and ambassador for the National Iranian American Council and hecostarred in the Academy Award winning film "Argo" and is now starring in the theater adaptation of "All the Shah's Men."

US turns the sanctions screw on Iran .
Just three days after pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal the US has begun to make good on President Trump's promise to increase sanctions against Tehran. Along with the United Arab Emirates, the US Treasury Department has moved against six individuals and three companies it claims have close links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard's elite Quds Force (IRGC-QF).It said they were responsible for funnelling millions of dollars to IRGC-QF. The Treasury department also accused Iran's central bank of aiding the group, some of which it said were front companies for the Revolutionary Guard based in UAE.

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