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US News No-deal, 'bye Boris' or another extension? The four outcome scenarios for this Brexit mess

17:50  17 october  2019
17:50  17 october  2019 Source:   independent.ie

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Boris Johnson's hopes of securing a Brexit deal are riding on the upcoming EU summitCredit: London News Ms Foster and her deputy Nigel Dodds MP trooped in and out of No10 twice yesterday to turn Boris told a meeting of his Cabinet yesterday to update them on the talks that the negotiations

What is the Brexit deal ? The deal consisted of a withdrawal agreement - which set out the terms for the "divorce" process. Currently, there are no border posts or physical barriers between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The backstop is designed to ensure that continues after the UK

Boris Johnson standing in front of a brick building: Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves the back of Downing Street (PA) Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves the back of Downing Street (PA)

First we had no Brexit deal. Then we were told we had a deal. Now the Democratic Unionist Party are saying - wait for it - “No” one more time.

There are now four potential outcomes. We have them detailed here:

1. Most likely outcome – another extension:

Sorry about this. That means it will be hard to avoid this head-wreck for quite some time to come. The EU’s position is that they have a Brexit deal with the UK. And now it is the job of UK PM Boris Johnson to sell it to his parliament.

Related: Juncker 'rules out' any further extension - but the reality is more complicated

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Boris posed with Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay and EU bosses Juncker and Barnier todayCredit: AP:Associated Press. European Commission boss Jean Claude Juncker ruled out any extension of Brexit too - meaning MPs now face a stark choice of Boris ' deal or a No Deal on Saturday.

UK PM announces ‘great deal that takes back control’ despite refusal of DUP to back agreement.

  No-deal, 'bye Boris' or another extension? The four outcome scenarios for this Brexit mess © Getty

But Mr Johnson’s numbers look decidedly ropey and he does not look likely to win a vote in the Westminster parliament. He is obliged by a law passed by MPs last Saturday and do what he has often sworn against: that is to seek an extension until next January.

EU leaders will discuss the various options at their summit today, Thursday. An extension requires unanimous approval and all the EU governments are royally fed up with Brexit.

But nobody wants a no-deal which could happen on October 31 if nothing else is put in place. So, the EU governments will extend.

Boris Johnson, Leo Varadkar are posing for a picture: Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar meet in Dublin. Photo: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin © Colin Keegan, Collins Agency, Dublin Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar meet in Dublin. Photo: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin

2. Boris Johnson somehow bundles this one over the line:

He needs 320 MPs to back him and succeed where his predecessor, Theresa May, failed three times last spring. He starts with just 260 loyal Conservative MPs.

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The 10 Democratic Unionist Party MPs, propping up his minority government, were vital of themselves. The DUP also have a big influence among the 28 ultra-Brexiteers in the self-styled “European Research Group.”

He might be able to rely upon many of the 21 pro-EU MPs he drove out of his party last month. But he would need a lot of Labour MPs, perhaps up to 20, to cross the floor and back him if he cannot somehow drag the DUP on board.

Labour rebels face a tough choice. Their party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, won’t help. Backing Johnson means giving him an early election on preferable terms.

One imaginative scenario suggests Boris Johnson successfully persuades the EU leaders to refuse a Brexit extension. That would reduce the UK parliament vote to a simple "deal or no deal" choice and improve his chances of success. It would give political cover to some Labour rebels to break ranks.

a man wearing a suit and tie: Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson (L) leaves from the rear of 10 Downing Street in central London on October 16, 2019. Photo: TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images © AFP or licensors Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson (L) leaves from the rear of 10 Downing Street in central London on October 16, 2019. Photo: TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images

3. Bye-bye Boris. A new government does a 'soft' Brexit – or even no Brexit:

Boris Johnson has a shaky grip on power and wants an early election which he hopes will improve his parliamentary numbers. There are all kinds of suggestions including an interim caretaker PM who extends the Brexit deadline and prepares a Brexit-themed general election.

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If Boris doesn't get an agreement signed off by the EU and UK by the end of the summit on Friday afternoon, he faces having to ask them for another delay to BrexitCredit: AFP. If Boris doesn't have a deal by the end of Saturday, a law passed last month will force him to seek an extension to Brexit .

The possibility of a no - deal Brexit is very much alive, after a UK government source said securing a Boris Johnson is committed to leaving the EU on 31 October, despite MPs passing a law that could What is a no - deal Brexit ? In a no - deal scenario , the UK would immediately leave the European

Related: MPs win bid to vote on second referendum

By law Johnson needs a two-thirds vote to allow him hold an early election. But the raw and shifting UK politics may overcome that obstacle. We are likely to see an early UK election.

The outcome of such a general election is hard to call and UK opinion polls are not reliable. But Mr Johnson could return to power.

Equally, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn might be in a position to lead, possibly in an anti-Tory coalition. He is committed to a very soft Brexit – and another referendum on the issue.

That would be a good result for Ireland. But there are lots of “ifs” along that uncertain road.

Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Dominic Raab sitting at a table in a suit and tie: British prime minister Boris Johnson © AFP or licensors British prime minister Boris Johnson

4. A no-deal Brexit – bringing us economic calamity:

Such an outcome will probably be postponed for now. But it will linger into the near future.

If the UK cannot ratify a draft deal it will happen automatically after an extension expires. EU leaders’ patience is not infinite.

A crash-out Brexit suits almost nobody. But the continuing economic uncertainty since the Brexit vote in June 2016 is also taking a heavy toll.

What next for Brexit? Follow key developments, expert analysis and multiple perspectives as the UK edges closer to leaving the EU

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EU delays Brexit extension decision .
Brussels has agreed to the need for a Brexit extension but will not make a decision on its length until next week. The development comes as Boris Johnson pushes to hold a general election on 12 December. Meanwhile, Downing Street has said if the EU offers a Brexit delay the Government can change the date of departure through secondary legislation, known as a statutory instrument. Political opponents had been holding out for an extension to be granted and so removing the imminent threat of a no-deal exit, before backing an election.

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