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US News Brexit Is For Ever

14:11  22 october  2019
14:11  22 october  2019 Source:   msn.com

Thousands of anti-Brexit protesters gather in London to march on Parliament as plotting MPs look set to thwart Boris Johnson's deal and delay leaving the EU - (while publicity-seeking eco-activist Mr Broccoli gets in on the act too)

  Thousands of anti-Brexit protesters gather in London to march on Parliament as plotting MPs look set to thwart Boris Johnson's deal and delay leaving the EU - (while publicity-seeking eco-activist Mr Broccoli gets in on the act too) Supporters of the so-called People's Vote campaign group gathered at Park Lane (left) before marching on the Palace of Westminster for a mass rally.Supporters of the so-called People's Vote campaign group have marched on the Palace of Westminster for a mass rally which has drawn tens of thousands from across the UK.

Brexit Forever . History suggests that Britain’s relationship with Europe may never truly be resolved. Brexit is a historical reckoning for the United Kingdom, not least because of the country’s frequent

Will Brexit actually happen? And if it does, how might it look? The Brexit referendum result, under this scenario, would be formally honored but Britain would remain either in - or very close - to the

Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves Downing Stree. © Reuters Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves Downing Stree.

Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

Such is its devilish complexity, Brexit is often portrayed as a game of 3D chess, understandable only to the grandest of grandmasters. Yet, in reality it is far simpler: a tedious game of political Tic-Tac-Toe (or noughts and crosses for our British readers), in which each side is forever countering the last move by their opponents but unable to ever triumph. The winner is, then, not a master strategist, but simply the one who is last to make a mistake.

Here's What Happens Now That Boris Johnson Has Been Forced To Request A Brexit Delay

  Here's What Happens Now That Boris Johnson Has Been Forced To Request A Brexit Delay Here's What Happens Now That Boris Johnson Has Been Forced To Request A Brexit DelayThe passing of the so-called Letwin amendment triggers another bit of legislation - the Benn act - which means Johnson must now write a letter to the EU asking for an Article 50 extension to January 31.

The risk of a hard Brexit has collapsed. No Brexit at all? This brings us to Season III of Brexit Forever , which raises the story question: Will May and Corbyn honor the will of the voter?

BREXIT FOREVER ? Leaving the EU was once far-fetched: the UK joined in 1973 as For proponents, Brexit is a dream “independence day” for a United Kingdom escaping what they cast as a doomed

This is how best to understand the series of seismic but impenetrable battles being waged between Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government and his opponents in Westminster this week: Battles that are not primarily about what they claim—whether for this motion or that amendment—but rather part of a much larger, but simpler game in which each side is trying to ensure it is not outmaneuvered by the other in a way that will make victory or defeat inevitable.

What next for Brexit? Follow key developments, expert analysis and multiple perspectives as the UK edges closer to leaving the EU

a group of people standing in front of a crowd © Henry Nicholls / Reuters

The problem is that in Brexit, the two sides have thus far been evenly matched and always able to extend the game to avoid a conclusion. With no majority for any party in Parliament, the government’s every move can be countered by the opposition—one step forward, one step back. Yet the opposition, united in what it does not want, has proved unable to agree what it does want and therefore cannot outmaneuver the government in return. The opposition does not want Britain to leave the European Union without a deal, so it can block Johnson’s moves to force one, yet it is not united in wanting a second Brexit referendum, so cannot force one. The result: an endless charade of marking Xs and Os without any chance of a breakthrough.

The ‘Messy and Angry’ Prospect of Ireland Reunifying

  The ‘Messy and Angry’ Prospect of Ireland Reunifying Changing demographics and sentiment signal that the possibility of a reunion is increasing. Yet few are prepared for what that means.Then the unforeseen happened. The United Kingdom voted narrowly to leave the European Union. Suddenly, Northern Ireland—which as part of the U.K. had voted to remain in the EU—was to be taken out of the bloc; the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state, would once again be a tangible barrier to movement and trade after a protracted period of near-invisibility. Warnings proliferated of the consequences—economic, security, political—of separating the two sides of the island of Ireland.

Brexit is short for "British exit" - and is the word people use to talk about the United Kingdom's decision to leave the That means that if the withdrawal agreement gets the green light, there will be no huge

The trailer for the new James Bond 007 parody fan film " Brexit is Forever !"

That is, until now. Over the past week something significant happened, which has potentially changed the game. This has not been immediately visible, and will continue to be obscured by the political theater of parliamentary battles over the next week or so, but for the first time in three years the British government, at least on paper, appears to have assembled a majority in parliament for a divorce deal with the EU. This may yet fall apart—perhaps as early as today—but it is a big moment all the same.

Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage speaks in the European Parliament on Tuesday. © AP Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage speaks in the European Parliament on Tuesday.

The development came last week, when Johnson struck a deal with Brussels paving the way for a hard Brexit—allowing a much looser economic and political relationship with the EU than the previous prime minister Theresa May envisaged—despite it not having the support of his parliamentary ally, Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party. This decision did two important things: First, it united the Conservative Party, including the majority of members of Parliament kicked out of the party by Johnson for voting against him; Secondly, it also won the support of a number of Brexit-supporting opposition MPs. Together this meant, according to publicly declared intentions, the government for the first time had a (slim) majority for Brexit (something May never got close to).

General Election looming to try to sort out Brexit

  General Election looming to try to sort out Brexit Three years after the UK voted to leave the EU and finally, Boris Johnson pulled off something that had felt impossible. He got MPs to back, in principle, a Brexit deal. It was undoubtedly a big moment in parliamentary history.But as ever with Brexit nothing is simple. This was just the first hurdle on the road to getting a deal across the line in Parliament and Mr Johnson's government fell at the next, MPs rejecting his breakneck timetable to convert the Brexit deal into law.Mr Johnson took the glass-half-full approach to it all, as he told MPs it was "welcome, even joyful" that MPs had voted for his deal.

This week we talk to two MPs elected as Tories at the last election - Phillip Lee and Damian Green. However Phillip Lee is now a Lib Dem.

Will Brexit actually happen? And if it does, how might it look? The Brexit referendum result, under this scenario, would be formally honored but Britain would remain either in - or very close - to the

This reality was obscured by a move over the weekend to delay ratification of the deal until Parliament had a chance to scrutinize legislation (which is required to integrate the proposed divorce treaty with the EU into domestic British law). In other words it postponed the day of reckoning when MPs either grant or do not grant consent. A similar tactic will be used by lawmakers again today—seeking to extend the length of time needed to debate the proposed divorce treaty. While these maneuvers do create more time for debate and analysis in Parliament, they also function as a play for time in the hope of drawing out a mistake from Johnson.

Gallery: Leave vs Remain - Brexit reveals a divided UK (Photos)

The delaying tactic worked because enough MPs from Johnson’s own side remained sufficiently worried about the prospect of an accidental no-deal Brexit to vote against the government. Johnson’s closest advisers are worried the same thing will happen again today. If they do, Johnson’s “do or die” commitment to Brexit by October 31 looks in trouble, which is the whole point of the opposition’s move.

Yet a significant number of these MPs who are happy with delay now say they are also willing to support his Brexit deal. In other words, despite being willing to slow the process, they now appear willing to fall into line and back Johnson.

This is a potentially seismic turning point in the Brexit drama, so long as the government can convince all those MPs who have professed their support to stick with them. As long as the numbers stay as they are, the game of Tic-Tac-Toe now looks stacked—opposition moves are only delaying tactics unless they find a way of splitting the majority in favor of Brexit. They either keep delaying Brexit and risk an election in which Johnson is well placed, with a united party behind him and a deal to present to the public, or they eventually see their opposition worn down and Brexit delivered.

Council workers clean graffiti reading 'Stop Boris' outside Downing Street. © Getty Council workers clean graffiti reading 'Stop Boris' outside Downing Street.

The game is not over—Johnson’s coalition is fragile and he could yet make a fatal mistake under pressure. There are concerns, for example, about the prospect of checks on goods moving from Northern Ireland to the rest of the U.K., a symbolic border between two parts of what are the same country, which may yet blow up into a full blown crisis for the government.

There are also a number of super-sized asterisks which need to be added, marked up in bold, underlined and highlighted for good measure. First of all, it remains a big “if” whether the Labour MPs who have broken from their party’s opposition to Johnson’s deal and who are now crucial to Johnson’s majority will stick with him. Secondly, even now the opposition appears to have the numbers to frustrate the government on timing—and even, perhaps, on some of the substance of Johnson’s deal. Clever parliamentary tactics this week and next are likely to be deployed to make life difficult for the prime minister, tempting him into making a mistake. Amendments could be proposed—such as protections for workers’ rights or a possible customs union with the EU—which could cause Johnson and his government serious disquiet if they pass, by making it harder for his own MPs to support the deal. The Conservative Party, not known for its discipline over the issue of Europe, will have to remain unified.

Anti-Brexit protesters rally in Westminster on Saturday. © AP Anti-Brexit protesters rally in Westminster on Saturday.

The biggest asterisk of all, however, is long term. Once the U.K. is out of the EU, the country’s political world changes irreversibly. Opposition parties must decide if they accept the new constitutional reality or not. Johnson, meanwhile, will go into the next election as the man who delivered Brexit. And there is still no majority for what Britain’s future relationship with Europe looks like—the Brexit deal Johnson assembled only sets the terms for Britain’s withdrawal from the bloc. Labour MPs prefer a closer relationship with Brussels based on equal rights for workers and minimum European standards, while Johnson’s Tory backbenchers want a looser relationship in which Britain is more free to compete economically.

Until Johnson has a comfortable majority of his own, the game of Tic-Tac-Toe will continue even after Brexit—a never-ending back-and-forth.

Even if Britain left the EU this month, on October 31 as scheduled, it would soon be in its next crisis, having to decide whether it wants to extend the “transition period” created in the exit deal—a kind of bridge between full EU membership and whatever future relationship is agreed. Experts say there is little-to-no chance that the U.K. could agree a free trade deal with Brussels before the end of 2020, when this transition period is supposed to expire. This means Johnson could be forced to apply for an extension of either a year or two next summer—something his own MPs will abhor. Through it all, the prime minister will have to determine what kind of trade deal to negotiate with the EU.

For Britain, the end game of stage one might—might—be drawing tentatively (and perhaps lengthily) to a close. Yet even if Johnson can keep his delicate majority together, the longer battle is only just beginning. Welcome to the never-ending Brexit.

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The Power (and Limits) of Boris Johnson .
The British leader’s efforts to reach a breakthrough on Brexit speak to the importance of personality when it comes to politics and foreign policy.Lister, 70, is an unassuming figure, besuited, gray-haired, respectable, like the head of a medium-size business. One of Johnson’s most trusted advisers from his time as London mayor, Lister is a stark contrast to the other central figure in Johnson’s administration, Dominic Cummings, an anarchic force of nature consumed by Brexit.

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