US News Winner of the economic recovery: Why China is still growing as the only major economy in the corona crisis

16:20  19 october  2020
16:20  19 october  2020 Source:   wiwo.de

Books about the Corona crisis: In the crisis, the good, not the bad, comes to light

 Books about the Corona crisis: In the crisis, the good, not the bad, comes to light Marcel Fratzscher's book makes a plea for optimism. Other economists are also assessing the current situation in the pandemic. © Photo: imago images / Christian Ditsch Marcel Fratzscher heads the German Institute for Economic Research and is Professor of Macroeconomics at the Humboldt University in Berlin. The current crisis has exacerbated social inequality within society. Far too many people lose their jobs. Companies perish.

The world's second largest economy was the only major world power to avoid a recession this year as Covid-19 forced lockdowns and crippled businesses. By the end of the year, China 's share of global GDP is likely to rise by about 1.1 percentage points, according to a CNN Business calculation using

China is set to be the only exception in this gloomy forecast because it can avoid recession and even China ’s faster-than-expected recovery is also based on strong demand for medical equipment and The IMF economist told Xihuia that China ’s performance can have a positive impact on other

While lockdown fears are again making the rounds in Germany, China has brought Corona under control and appears to be winning the global race for the fastest economic recovery. But not without problems.

Da sich das Coronavirus nicht mehr frei in China verbreitet und keine großen Einschränkungen im täglichen Leben erforderlich sind, nimmt die Wirtschaft wieder Fahrt auf. © AP Since the coronavirus is no longer spreading freely in China and no major restrictions are required in daily life, the economy is picking up speed again.

The grave consequences of a lockdown were painfully felt in China's economy in the spring. For the first time since official records began in 1992, the second largest economy posted negative economic growth of 6.8 percent in the first quarter. After the outbreak of the corona virus in the metropolis of Wuhan, practically the entire country had to shut down. Hundreds of millions of people had no choice but to endure strict quarantine for weeks.

More than 7,000 new corona infections in Germany

 More than 7,000 new corona infections in Germany Another high: health authorities in Germany reported 7334 corona cases within 24 hours. The opening up of schools has not resulted in uncontrolled virus outbreaks, surveys show. © picture-alliance / dpa / M. Murat Provided by Deutsche Welle The corona virus is spreading rapidly in Germany. With 6638 new cases, the highest value since the beginning of the pandemic in Germany was registered on Thursday.

China ’s economy returned to growth in the second quarter after a deep slump at the start of the year, but unexpected weakness in domestic consumption underscored the need for more policy support to bolster the recovery after the shock of the coronavirus crisis . Asian share markets and the Chinese

China looks to be on course for a V-shaped economic recovery from its coronavirus hit, growing 11% in China , however, is the only major economy that will see a V-shape Business Insider spoke to two economists to get their views on why . China 's potential GDP is much higher than other countries.

These tough measures have obviously paid off, not only from an epidemiological, but also from an economic point of view. Hardly any new diseases have been registered in China for months. According to official information, there are no more than 20 infections a day, which are usually only found in newcomers. When they arrive in China, they have to go into monitored hotel quarantine for two weeks anyway, which is why they are not at risk of spread.

With the virus no longer spreading freely in the country and no major restrictions in daily life are required, the economy is picking up speed again.

After a plus of 3.2 percent in the second quarter, economic growth in the third quarter increased by 4.9 percent, as the Beijing statistics office reported on Monday. The recovery, which, like in the rest of the world, is being driven by government stimulus payments worth billions, appears to be on ever firmer feet in China.

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China 's economy grew 3.2% in the second quarter of this year following a record coronavirus-related slump. And just as the economy starts to recover , tensions with the US are flaring up - especially over Hong Kong. That is why some economists are reluctant to call it a V-shaped recovery just yet.

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese economic activity continued to rebound in August, with a gauge of the services industry at the strongest level since early 2018 while the expansion in manufacturing activity slowed slightly.The non-manufacturing gauge rose to 55.2 from July’s 54.2, the National Bureau of

The growth figure now presented is a little lower than many analysts had hoped. According to a survey by the Chinese business magazine Caixin, an average increase of 5.5 percent was expected. However, the result is enough for China to more than offset the previous slump in the spring. According to official figures, China's economy grew by 0.7 percent in the first nine months of the year.

People in the West are amazed to see how pool parties are again being celebrated with tens of thousands of participants in Wuhan of all places, or that more than 600 million trips were made to China in the nationwide holiday week at the beginning of October.

As the statistics office announced on Monday, other important indicators also showed general improvements in the third quarter: industrial production rose by 5.8 percent and retail sales recorded an increase of 0.9 percent compared to the previous year.

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If the economy is growing , that generally means more wealth and more new jobs. But the IMF says that the global economy will shrink by 3% this year. It described the decline as the worst Although it said that the coronavirus has plunged the world into a " crisis like no other", it does expect global

The economic recovery in China , where the coronavirus first emerged, is "going to look very impressive," said Michael Spencer, Deutsche Bank's chief economist and head of research for Asia Pacific. Spencer said improving domestic demand in China is expected to help the economy grow

The foreign trade figures last week were again better than analysts had expected. Although many of China's trading partners are struggling with the virus, exports in September rose by 9.9 percent compared to the previous year, while imports even jumped 13.2 percent.

In a current forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculates that China will emerge as the winner in the global race for economic recovery. No other major economy is likely to generate positive growth this year.

According to the IMF, Chinese economic output will increase by 1.9 percent, 0.9 percentage points more than in the June estimate. For 2021, the Monetary Fund continues to expect growth of 8.2 percent.

For comparison: For Germany, a decrease of 6.0 percent is initially expected this year and then an increase of 4.2 percent. According to the forecast, the US economy will shrink by 4.3 percent in 2020 and then grow by 3.1 percent in the coming year. At least in the short term, the coronavirus ensures that the gap between the largest and second largest economy closes faster than before.

APK: Looking for alternatives to China

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China 's gloomy economic numbers are a grim warning to the rest of the world still in lockdown. First off, China 's economic data always comes with the caveat: don't believe what you read. Independent economists always say the figures are much lower than what the government says.

China ’s economy has strong resilience and great potential, while the fundamentals for high-quality Analysts say a major sign to watch will be Beijing’s announcement of its annual growth target, which Economic output plunged by nearly 5 percent in the first three months of 2020, the steepest dive

While the recovery appears strong on paper, China is also struggling with problems. As in other countries, the pandemic has hit poor sections of the population hard. The average monthly income of migrant workers fell by almost seven percent in the second quarter compared to the previous year, as the World Bank estimates. Millions of people have lost their jobs.

At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that the pandemic will return. The government's fear of a new large-scale outbreak has become clear in the past few days in the coastal city of Qingdao. After there was a local infection in a hospital, a huge machine started working. The authorities immediately had the more than 100,000 employees in the city health service tested.

The entire population of almost ten million people followed within four days. In the end, it was clear that the 13 infection outbreak was confined to the hospital and not spread to the general public.

With similar mass tests and local lockdowns, China had also brought other local outbreaks back under control, for example in Beijing and on the border with Myanmar.

More on the topic: The power struggle between the USA and China is now increasingly spreading to the financial markets.

Corona pandemic: Angela Merkel prefers consultation with Prime Minister .
The corona numbers in Germany are increasing rapidly. Chancellor Angela Merkel has now brought the talks planned for Friday with the heads of government of the federal states forward to Wednesday. © AXEL SCHMIDT / REUTERS The corona pandemic is intensifying in Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel now wants to bring forward the Corona summit with the heads of government of the countries planned for Friday in view of the situation.

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