US News A new simulator is supposed to predict how many corona cases there will be in all federal states - and how difficult they will be

09:55  22 october  2020
09:55  22 october  2020 Source:   businessinsider.de

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The number of infections with the coronavirus in Germany has been increasing for a few weeks. Several areas already exceed the risk value. How will it go on? How many cases do we have to expect by the end of the year?

A research team from Saarbrücken has now developed an online simulator , which is supposed to predict exactly that. On the basis of various data, the researchers developed a mathematical model that can be used to create detailed forecasts for each federal state.

Infection situation as in mid-April

"Unfortunately, we are currently recording a sharp increase in the number of reproductions (R value), which indicates how many people an infected person infects on average," explains Thorsten Lehr, Professor of Clinical Pharmacy at Saarland University, in a press release . “In Germany, the R value is currently estimated at 1.56, in Saarland it is already 2.0, which means that an infected person infects two more people on average. A significant increase in hospital occupancy can therefore also be expected for . If the infection situation continues as it is now, we expect a similar number of COVID-19 patients in the normal and intensive care units in two to four weeks in individual federal states such as Saarland, as was recorded in the peak times of the first wave in mid-April, "warns Researcher.

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If the infection rate remains so high, there could be 20,000 new infections in Germany in two to three weeks - per day. “At the moment it is mainly younger people who are infected, and the number of hospitalized patients, including intensive care patients, is correspondingly low. In two to three weeks, however, we expect the intensive medical care required to be sevenfold compared to the summer and assume that there will be 200,000 Covid-19 sufferers nationwide, i.e. active cases if the infection rates remain as they are now, "explains Thorsten Lehr.

He also warns: Even if the reproductive value is successfully reduced to below 1 by November, one can still expect 10,000 infected people a day.

The forecasts are constantly updated and recalculated.

The number of deaths is already rising and could continue to rise sharply. “One fifth of Covid19 intensive care patients still die. Our calculations have confirmed that, ”says Thorsten Lehr.

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These calculations are based on many different data. Surveys by the Robert Koch Institute and the district and state health authorities, but also clinical data from over 8,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients from more than 100 German clinics and various information from the health ministries are evaluated.

  Ein neuer Simulator soll voraussagen, wie viele Corona-Fälle es in allen Bundesländern geben wird — und wie schwer sie verlaufen © Provided by Business Insider Germany

“We are also analyzing how the political interventions during the pandemic affect the infection rate. In our tables and graphs, you can see exactly what effects the contact restrictions or the school closure had. We use this knowledge for our forecasts and thus continuously improve the underlying simulation model. We are very pleased with how precisely our calculations can predict the actual development, ”says Thorsten Lehr.

In fact, the simulator is very easy to use. You have to specify the federal state and the period to be calculated and then you can display various forecasts. Here you can try out the simulator yourself.

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The mathematical model cannot only be applied to Germany, says the research team. The only important thing for this is the corresponding data basis. “We have now set up these not only for Germany, but also for the USA, France, Italy, Spain and Great Britain. For these countries, too, we can precisely predict various scenarios and calculate what would happen if, for example, the ban on contact is neglected, ”explains the pharmacy professor.

  Ein neuer Simulator soll voraussagen, wie viele Corona-Fälle es in allen Bundesländern geben wird — und wie schwer sie verlaufen © Provided by Business Insider Germany TOPSHOT-SPAIN-HEALTH-VIRUS-HOSPITAL © PAU BARRENA / AFP via getty images TOPSHOT-SPAIN-HEALTH-VIRUS-HOSPITAL

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