US News More than a million cases of Covid in France ... but this is not the most worrying figure

21:40  23 october  2020
21:40  23 october  2020 Source:   nouvelobs.com

DIRECT. Covid-19: curfew, re-containments ... What will Emmanuel Macron's announcements be?

 DIRECT. Covid-19: curfew, re-containments ... What will Emmanuel Macron's announcements be? © AFP / LUDOVIC MARIN Emmanuel Macron will address the French from 7:55 p.m., for a 45-minute interview on TF1 and France 2. New measures, even curfews, should be announced in particular in large cities where the Covid-19 is racing. With the resurgence of the epidemic in recent weeks, Emmanuel Macron will be interviewed this Wednesday evening on France 2 and TF1, from 7:55 pm The announcements he will make are awaited.

  Plus d’un million de cas de Covid en France… mais ce n’est pas le chiffre le plus inquiétant © Copyright 2020, L'Obs

If Spain officially became Wednesday, October 21 the first member of the 'European Union to cross the milestone of one million proven cases of Covid-19, the sixth country in the world, France , unsurprisingly , crossed this threshold this Friday, October 23.

> The curves and figures of the epidemic can be found at the end of the article

Exceeding the milestone of one million proven cases, validated by a test, is unfortunately only purely symbolic, because, as is the case in Spain, the number of real cases in France is much higher.

Covid-19: the curfew extended to 38 new departments from midnight Friday

The head of the Spanish government, Pedro Sanchez, estimated this Friday that the “real number” of people infected with Covid-19 in Spain since the beginning of the pandemic "exceeds 3 million", explaining this huge difference by the fact that the proportion of positive people detected was very low at the start of the pandemic. “We are now detecting the majority of cases, around 70%,” he said, compared to just 10% in the first wave.

The latest Covid figures show a "worrying" spread to the elderly

 The latest Covid figures show a © Copyright 2020, L'Obs The Covid-19 epidemic continues to spread "from the youngest to the oldest", observes this Friday, October 16 Public health France, deeming this development "very worrying", while the times for screening tests tend to improve. People aged 15 to 44 are still the most affected, with 278 new cases of contamination per 100,000 inhabitants, against 180 per 100,000 on average for all age groups, according to its latest epidemiological bulletin which covers data.

The situation is similar in France. If the Hexagon has crossed this course this Friday evening, the Institut Pasteur estimates for its part, after modeling , that between 3% and 7% of the French population had been contaminated by SARS-CoV-2 at May 11. That is, at the time, between 2 and 4.7 million French people.

Another study called EpiCov , conducted by Inserm (National Institute of Health and Medical Research) and Dress (Department of Research, Studies, Evaluation and Statistics), in collaboration with the he health agency Public Health France and INSEE, for its part, estimates that 4.5% of the population had been infected in May, or about 3 million cases.

Video: Castex: "the month of November will be trying", "the number of deaths will continue to increase" (AFP)

Covid-19: Clusters involved in less than 10% of contamination

 Covid-19: Clusters involved in less than 10% of contamination According to Public Health France, cases linked to clusters represent less than 10% of contamination. © Reuters Are clusters a determining factor in the explosion of cases of Covid-19 contamination? According to Public Health France, less than 10% of positive cases are linked to one of them, which tends to demonstrate the importance of barrier gestures and social distancing at all times, and not only in cases of large gatherings.

How the Covid crisis sounded the end of the "more and more "

More than five months later and while France is hit hard by the second wave of Covid-19 , where are we? Impossible to say for sure, but some experts estimate that France could have exceeded 10% of contaminated, or nearly 7 million cases. It could be even more, if we are to believe the president of the scientific council, Jean-François Delfraissy. The latter already estimated at the beginning of August that we were 10% contaminated : “In France, it is estimated that around 10% of the French population has been in contact with the virus whether or not they have had symptoms. "

If the number of real cases is impossible to know, the other data are not mistaken: France is currently hit by a second wave of the epidemic. According to AP-HP Managing Director Martin Hirsch, who expects to have a "dreadful November", it is simply "possible that the second wave is worse than the first."

Covid-19: Spain crosses the million case mark, a first in Europe

 Covid-19: Spain crosses the million case mark, a first in Europe © Jose Jordan, AFP A couple seated in front of thousands of Spanish flags symbolizing people who have died of the new coronavirus in the country in Valencia on October 4. Country among the most bereaved in Europe, Spain officially became on Wednesday the first EU member to cross the milestone of one million coronavirus cases. To stem the second wave of the epidemic, the country is preparing for new measures. This is a record that Spain would have done well.

What do the numbers say? Let's look at the hospitalizations first (curve 1). France crossed Thursday, October 22 the figure of 14,000 people hospitalized. In the spring, France had reached this same threshold… on March 27. That is ten days after the start of confinement, on March 17.

France also has more than 2,300 intensive care patients, a figure it reached on March 24, a week after the start of confinement. Of course, the curves are not climbing as quickly as in March, because the situation is not at all the same: masks, barrier gestures, teleworking ... the virus is therefore currently circulating less quickly. The rate of reproduction of the virus, the famous "R0", is indeed lower. Estimated at 1.35 today by the government, it was estimated at nearly 3 in March. The number of patients was therefore increasing faster, even if the low number of tests did not allow them to be detected. For the epidemic to recede, the R0 must now fall back below 1.

The number of deaths is also worrying (curves 3 and 4). At the start of containment on March 17 at 12 p.m., there were only about 150 dead in France, in total. The balance sheets were then 20 to 30 daily deaths. Currently, around 160 people die every day in France! France exceeded this daily toll for the first time on March 23, a week after the start of confinement.

"We will have to consider much harsher measures": the specter of local reconfigurations

Will the second wave be worse than the first? It is impossible to say for the moment, as long as the effects of the curfew, now imposed on two thirds of French people, are not visible. Will it be enough? Will it be necessary to impose local reconfinements, or a general reconfinement in France? Response in the next few days…

Resumption of the Covid-19 epidemic in France

Covid-19. In hospitals, the intensive care units are approaching saturation .
© Franck Dubray / Ouest-France The intensive care unit of the Nantes University Hospital with patients suffering from Covid-19 coronavirus. More than 2,900 Covid-19 patients were hospitalized in intensive care on Tuesday, October 27, 2020. They occupy half of the beds currently available in France in these services welcoming the most seriously ill patients, according to the latest official figures. But as the epidemic progresses, saturation is fast approaching.

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