US News If Ethiopia "does not offer a path of reconciliation, one day or another the fighting will resume", thinks Pascal Boniface

19:30  29 november  2020
19:30  29 november  2020 Source:   20minutes.fr

Ethiopia: Tigray fires rockets again in neighboring Amhara region

 Ethiopia: Tigray fires rockets again in neighboring Amhara region © Provided by Le Point Rockets fired by the Tigray forces, which confront the Ethiopian federal army, again targeted the neighboring region of Amhara. hours after the central government claimed its troops were closing in on Mekele, the capital of the dissident region.

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The director of Iris, Pascal Boniface, fears that the military victory proclaimed by the former Ethiopian minister is only short-lived

INTERVIEW - The director of Iris, Pascal Boniface, fears that the military victory proclaimed by the Ethiopian prime minister will only be short-lived

In the armed conflict which sees power clash Ethiopian and the dissident region of Tigray since November 4, Ethiopia proclaims its victory. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says his army has captured Tigray's capital, Mekele. While the Ethiopian army claims to stop fighting, the Tigrayan forces say they are not giving up. Pascal Boniface , director of Iris (Institute of International and Strategic Relations), interviewed by 20 Minutes, sees no solution other than political to resolve the conflict between Tigray and Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia does not want AU mediation in the Tigray conflict

 Ethiopia does not want AU mediation in the Tigray conflict In the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray, the central government continues to rely on its armed forces and violence. Diplomatic negotiations should not take place until the TPLF leadership is arrested. © Ethiopian News Agency / AP / picture alliance The photo released by the government is said to show the Ethiopian military advancing into Tigray Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed - 2019 Nobel Peace Prize laureate - has turned down an offer to mediate by the African Union (AU).

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In a note you recently wrote on the situation in Ethiopia you explained that no lasting solution would come out of armed conflict. With the capture of the capital of Tigray by Ethiopian forces, this is the scenario that seems to emerge ...

Yes, indeed. The Ethiopian prime minister believes he has achieved a military victory, which is partially true, but that does not solve anything. Because the leader of the Tigrayan forces said he would not stop the fight. The only positive point, which can be congratulated, is the announcement of the end of the fighting by the Ethiopian army. This could allow the arrival of humanitarian aid, which had been blocked until then. But in political terms, that will not solve anything. One can even fear a permanence of the engagements. History shows that in these kinds of conflicts there are never military solutions, only political solutions. However, the evidence suggests that the Prime Minister believes that a military victory allows him to automatically obtain a political victory, without negotiating with the Tigrayans. In the medium or long term this seems to be a serious mistake.

After the war, the plight of pregnant Ethiopian women in the camps in Sudan

 After the war, the plight of pregnant Ethiopian women in the camps in Sudan © ASHRAF SHAZLY An Ethiopian refugee carries her baby in the Oum Raquba camp, in Sudan, November 21, 2020 Berekhti Burro was happy to giving birth to her second child in a safe place, but after fleeing the war in Ethiopia she is now preparing to give birth in Sudan, in a refugee camp where the health crisis threatens. Nine months pregnant, she left her first child with her grandmother in Humera, in the far north of Ethiopia, and walked long hours with her husband to cross the border into Sudan.

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For a political solution we imagine a mediation of the neighbors, while Ethiopia is the seat of the African Union: in this case what about?

There have been many mediations from other African countries who have come and asked the Prime Minister to stop the fighting. He did not follow up. He wanted to reach the capital of Tigray before ending the fighting. Requests have also come from other outside powers, such as that of the UN Secretary General. The fact that the United States is in a period when it is completely absent from the international scene does not help matters. And the Chinese, Ethiopia’s closest allies, are not used to intervening in such matters.

By taking the capital of Tigray, Ethiopia’s advantage is not yet decisive?

For the moment, Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister, has made the voice of arms speak. Only if he does not offer the Tigrayans a path to reconciliation, one day or another the fighting will resume. And we know that in this type of situation there can be guerrilla sequences. Just because you conquer the capital of a country or region does not mean that peace comes and the fighting ceases. There are multiple examples to the contrary, from Afghanistan to Iraq. Military superiority does not allow a population to be ruled against its will.

Ethiopians fleeing the war, welcomed in Sudanese houses

 Ethiopians fleeing the war, welcomed in Sudanese houses © ASHRAF SHAZLY Ethiopian refugees who fled the province of Tigray, in a camp in Gedaref, in eastern Sudan, on November 21, 2020 Fleeing the war in Ethiopia's breakaway Tigray region, Sejamara and her husband had no idea what they would find in Sudan, but what a relief to finally be greeted by generous residents across the border.

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Ethiopia is a mosaic of several ethnicities

What is certain is that the very strong, if not excessively strong, reaction of the Ethiopian prime minister can be explained by the fear that the revolt in Tigray would set a precedent. And so that subsequently other ethnic groups in turn demand their independence. Ahmed Abiy fears that the secession of one region is not the end of one process, but the start of another. From there, it is the very existence of Ethiopia that could be called into question. However, wanting to maintain a federation by force, as Serbia did for Yugoslavia, does not generally lead to the possibility of maintaining this federation. You cannot permanently control a people who want independence by force. We can eventually control it by negotiation, by the political solution, by the development of federalism ... But by force, sooner or later, that does not work because it forces a permanent repression. And one can think that the repression will whip and stimulate the will of independence of the Tigrayans more than the reverse.

The Tigrayans have recently lost a long-held power in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia. Is independence really the intention of Tigray?

The Tigrayans are not formally asking for independence. They wanted to put in place institutions and an electoral process without the endorsement of the capital. This is what has raised fears that, little by little, we are heading towards independence. It was in any case seen as such but if it is not officially claimed. But the chain of violence may lead to independence becoming the goal of the Tigrayans, if they feel the repression is too strong.

Ethiopia. At least 600 civilians killed in the “atrocious massacre” of 9 November in the Tigray region

 Ethiopia. At least 600 civilians killed in the “atrocious massacre” of 9 November in the Tigray region © MOHAMED NURELDIN ABDALLAH / Reuters Ethiopians who fled the war in the Tigray region, awaiting a food ration in the refugee camp of Um-Rakoba, Sudan. During the "atrocious massacre" of November 9 in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, several hundred civilians were killed, according to an independent Ethiopian public institution.

Does that mean that the reaction of the Ethiopian authorities is disproportionate?

What is certain is that she is excessive in the use of force, of course. But the Tigrayans have also made use of it: the massacres are not unilateral. They used violence against ethnicities other than their own, notably the ethnic group of the prime minister, the Oromo. In this type of conflict, we know very well that there are not the good guys on one side and the bad guys on the other, nor the innocent and the guilty. Everyone engages in abuses. When we analyze what happened in the 1990s in Yugoslavia, we see that hatred leads to hatred and that, very quickly, positions become irreconcilable.

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Sylvie Tellier criticized by her brother-in-law Jean-Pascal Lacoste, she clears things up .
© Abaca Sylvie Tellier criticized by her brother-in-law Jean-Pascal Lacoste, she clears things up Since the start of September , Sylvie Tellier has constantly the ears which whistle because of her brother-in-law, Jean-Pascal Lacoste. Tired of being the target of her critics, the patroness of the Miss France set things straight on Sud Radio on December 3. The most famous agitator has scores to settle with his sister-in-law, Sylvie Tellier.

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This is interesting!