US News recovery at the US labor market is sized - "Fed in the Bredouille"

20:25  03 december  2021
20:25  03 december  2021 Source:   de.reuters.com

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Washington / Berlin (Reuters) - in the midst of the departure from crisis mode, the US Federal Reserve faces the job market with a halning recovery.

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In November, only 210,000 new jobs emerged outside of agriculture, as the government announced on Friday in Washington. Experts surveyed by Reuters had expected 550,000. The separately determined unemployment rate at the same time fell to 4.2 of previously 4.6 percent and thus more clearly than expected. However, the personnel ADERLASS at the beginning of the Pandemic in the US in the spring 2020 looks like: the loss of jobs compared to the pre-crisis level, according to experts, is still nearly four million jobs.

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In the US central bank, the warning lights light up due to the risk of inflation. Therefore, it summarizes a faster reduction of your bond purchases on the way to an interest rate increase. "The labor market report brings the Fed to the Bredouille," says Chef Volkswirt Thomas Gitzel from the VP Bank. Because the workplace construction is not quite ahead.

The hope for a continuing money flood of the Federal Reserve Fed supported US exchanges for the weekend. After the disappointing job structure, the share investors set a less fast departure of the Fed from their crisis mode. In Europe, investors also contributed to shares: "For the stock exchanges, the labor market report may even be the best possible scenario," said Portfoli Manager Thomas Altmann from the asset manager QC Partners. Börsians assume that given the few new places, the expected accelerated throttling of securities purchases by the Fed could be back from the table.

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Video: Inflation in the euro area on record value (DPA-AFX)

central bank in Dilemma

According to the economist Gitzel, at the same time the personnel shortcoming for some months has driven the employee fees upwards. The average hourly wages increase by 4.8 percent in November. The Fed is in the regulation of the degradation temple of its securities purchases - the so-called tapering - in a dilemma, as its targets are currently in a tension, as the US currency retailer Mary Daly was recently formulated. Because on the one hand, the central bank must be careful at a tax rate of 4.1 percent that inflation is not running out of the rudder. At the same time, she also does not want to tend to brake the rather faulty recovery in the labor market with a rapid withdrawal of the economic aid.

The labor market statistics in November is not easy for the Fed to decipher. At least it seems to be explained that the job build-up fear fails, but the quota significantly decreases. But the numbers are based on two different records: an employer survey from which job numbers are won, and a household survey from which the unemployment rate is calculated. Analyst Bernd Krampen From Nordlb points out that a massive increase in employment of more than 1.1 million was measured in the budget survey.

That was accompanied by an increase in the so-called Labor Force, which ultimately has ultimately pressed the unemployment rate. The Labor Force concept is a model-developed model for the statistical acquisition of the working population. It does not work from the total population, but by the entirety of all persons living in private households from 15 years - the so-called working population. Expert Kriken points out that the unemployment rate of 4.2 percent the pre-crisis level of February 2020 is reached again: "The further substantial job build-up by the Fed is not so clearly occurred, yet she is apparently on an accelerated tapering Prepare, "says his conclusion.

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