Auto Shows experts explain: Why the gas price falls again and the trend will last

05:40  25 september  2022
05:40  25 september  2022 Source:   tagesspiegel.de

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is still extremely expensive. However, the situation relaxes somewhat on the stock exchanges. Several factors play a role.

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German Gas customers shake from drastic price increases of their providers and see the winter in unheated apartments. The situation relaxes on the stock exchanges, although deliveries from Russia have almost come to a standstill. According to experts, natural gas buyers can hope for a continuation of this trend for the coming months.

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"We will surely see prices in the next 18 months," says Timm Kehler, Managing Director of the Association "Future Gas". They would probably be above the level of 2021, that is, before the Ukraine War - but "significantly below what we had to experience in the past few weeks and months".

The experts from the Energy Economic Institute of the University of Cologne (EWI) also predict declines in a study for the coming years.

Compared to its record high of the end of August, the trend-setting European natural gas future has reduced almost half to around 180 euros per megawatt hour. However, it still costs more than twice as much as before the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the end of February and almost ten times as much as in early 2021.

Börsians have justified the decline in price of the past few weeks with well -filled storage in Europe, which has been at risk Acute bottlenecks reduced in the coming winter. In addition, there would be record -high imports of liquefied gas (LNG) from the USA and a falling demand due to the still high price level, explain the analysts from Energyscan, the data provider of the supplier Engie. In October, the gas deposits could already reach their capacity limit in some countries. In Germany, the gas stores are currently too 90 percent filled.

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USA will probably replace Russia as the main supplier

A cornerstone of the future energy supply is liquid gas from the USA. The construction of the floating LNG terminals is progressing, says association chief Kehler. As soon as they go into operation, thanks to the simplified delivery, the current surcharge will decrease compared to the prices paid in Asia. By 2030, the United States could rise to the largest gas supplier in the EU and provide up to 90 percent of the crowd that Russia had delivered in 2021, the EWI experts in accordance with.

The decisive lever in price development is consumption, the EWI study continues. "If EU gas demand would go back by 20 percent by 2030 compared to 2021, wholesale prices could settle at the level of 2018-regardless of whether gas trading is limited or not." Four years ago, the gas price committed the brand four years ago Of 20 euros per megawatt hour.

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recession as a price damper

The electrification of industry, savings and the production of biogas as a replacement energy source could reduce gas consumption, according to the EWI experts. However, part of the decline in demand is expected to go to the recession's account, which economists consider inevitable.

"The massively increased electricity and gas prices make the production of some goods unprecedented, so that it is shut down by the companies despite sufficient orders," explains Commerzbank analyst Christoph Weil. "At the same time, the uncertainty about the future gas supply makes companies more careful, which speaks for fewer investments."

Skeptically assessed the plans to limit energy prices by the EU or individual states. "The most effective measures such as the increase in Dutch gas production or the auction of additional emission certificates to temporarily reduce the CO2 price does not seem to have a high priority."

His colleagues from ING Bank warn of undesirable side effects in the discussed price lid Electricity that is less controversial in the EU than that for natural gas. Ecostrome providers who produce comparatively cheaply could try to sell their electricity at non-EU countries such as Great Britain or Norway.

Some EU countries would be forced to produce more electricity in gas power plants, which the demand is. In addition, it is questionable whether the reform reaches quickly enough to relax the situation in the approaching winter. (Reuters)

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