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Auto Shows Opinion: After the elections in NRW - 2021 everything is possible

04:00  18 september  2020
04:00  18 september  2020 Source:   dw.com

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The local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia show the upheaval in the German party landscape. The 'business as usual' of the traditional popular parties can therefore only irritate, says DW editor Christoph Strack.

Wo geht es lang 2021? Kann NRW-Ministerpräsident Armin Laschet Kanzlerin Angela Merkel beerben? © picture-alliance / AP / M. Meissner Where are we going in 2021? Can NRW Prime Minister Armin Laschet inherit Chancellor Angela Merkel?

There are rituals that always characterize the 24 hours after an election Sunday in Germany. Everyone is satisfied and reads from the election result consolation, hope and encouragement for themselves and their own party. After the local elections in the most populous German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, the largest parties to date, the CDU and the SPD, are also doing this. And that's irritating.

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In the meantime, elections are always milestones in Germany. In March 2017, of all things, it was the state elections in the smallest area, the Saarland, which, as the first election Sunday of this year, gave the CDU momentum and self-confidence until the federal election six months later. And North Rhine-Westphalia is always such a landmark, regardless of what is currently being chosen.

North Rhine-Westphalia always has national political significance

Because even if this time it was only about the local parliaments, mayors and district administrators - North Rhine-Westphalia always has national political significance. Almost 18 million people live on the Rhine and Ruhr. The number of those eligible to vote yesterday alone, at 14.1 million, is well above the population of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, the second and third largest federal states in terms of population. Those who pass here have every chance at the federal level. And if you lose a lot here, you won't. When in May 2005 the then already ailing SPD lost the NRW state election after 39 years in power, the social democratic Chancellor Gerhard Schröder decided to vote for a vote of confidence and for new elections for the Bundestag.

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DW-Hauptstadtkorrespondent Christoph Strack © DW / B. Geilert DW capital correspondent Christoph Strack

And now, a year before the (not yet exactly scheduled) federal election in 2021? The SPD, which was already battered 15 years ago, is now staggering and is already happy about a result that is a little better than the result of the 2019 European elections, but which remains sobering for them. The social democratic character of the Ruhr area, the largest metropolitan area in Western Europe, which had existed for decades, has been irretrievably lost. The working-class milieu that guaranteed the SPD success is demographically and economically history.

According to the numbers from Sunday, it would hardly be enough for red-red-green at the federal level. Such an alliance would then be more of a Green-Red-Red and would see the Social Democrats as one of the smaller partners of the dominant Greens. Nowhere is it as clear as in North Rhine-Westphalia that the SPD ultimately only embodies the memory of a people's party. But there is no longer any.

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The 49th general election of members of the House of Representatives (Japanese: 第49回衆議院議員総選挙, Hepburn: dai-yonjūkyūkai Shūgiin giin sōsenkyo)

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The CDU celebrates a bad result

And the CDU? Prime Minister Armin Laschet celebrates 34.3 percent of the national average. This result is worse than any local election result of his party in the history of North Rhine-Westphalia. Sure, Laschet wants to be something else this year, CDU chairman and also candidate for chancellor of the Union for 2021. So he has to be satisfied with these numbers, which are in fact a yellow card for his state government made up of CDU and FDP.

By the way: Older voters in particular were decisive for the CDU's result. The SPD already had the same problem 20 years ago. This shows that both popular parties are threatened. The SPD is now in its entirety, the CDU is currently losing touch with young voters in university and large cities.

Nothing is certain anymore for 2021

It will be exciting to see whether the CDU will be able to turn the corner on issues such as infrastructure, education and family issues and the quota of women. The stability and growth of the Greens, as well as the surprising success of the almost still student VOLT party in cities like Cologne (4.98 percent) and Bonn (5.2 percent) stand against this.

Whoever becomes CDU chairman at the end of the year - nothing is guaranteed if Chancellor Merkel's bonus is gone. Because that is the lesson of the local elections on the Rhine and Ruhr: Nothing is certain for the election year 2021. This is especially true for the tired so-called 'people's parties'.

Author: Christoph Strack

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