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Auto Shows Portfolio Manager warns: Equity investors will have to prepare for a crash in 2021

06:40  01 december  2020
06:40  01 december  2020 Source:   finanzen.net

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After the Corona crash in spring, prices have now stabilized again and some of the indices have reached new record levels. One expert believes that this will not stay that way for long - and warns of a sharp decline on the US stock exchanges in the coming year.

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• Portfolio manager expects the year to end quietly

• There is a risk of market collapse of up to 25 percent in 2021

• Expert uses simple strategy to minimize risks

Since the stock markets broke in in March of this year, a lot has happened. Economic stimuli, an impending change of power in the USA and the likely imminent availability of a corona vaccine have meant that share prices have long since recovered. A return to perfect normalcy after the past months of the corona crisis seems to be just a matter of time at the moment. But in the coming year of all things, when the situation around COVID-19 is likely to have calmed down, there could be another sharp price slump, a portfolio manager warns. Because he believes that the expectations of the market are far too high.

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Expert: 2021 won't look as good as investors expect

Thomas H. Kee Jr. is Portfolio Manager at Equity Logic and also General Manager of Stock Traders Daily, a company that conducts market research and develops trading strategies based on it. He told "MarketWatch" in November that he was expecting a calm end to 2020 without any major price declines. His outlook for the coming year is all the more spectacular. Because for 2021, Kee believes a drop in the US benchmark index Dow Jones of up to 25 percent is possible. "When that happens, it will come as a surprise to most investors as they assume everything will look extremely good next year. But the truth is that this year [2020] should and shouldn't look worse because." there have been so many stimuli, "Kee told the US business magazine. This situation could be corrected in the coming year.

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Kee believes that, especially towards the end of the coming year, investors will "see significant price losses in the market, even if everything will slowly return to normal [after COVID-19]". The portfolio manager cites two main reasons for this. On the one hand, in his opinion, the central banks should start scaling back measures to support the economy during the corona pandemic by mid-2021 at the latest. On the other hand, the analysts' expectations for 2021 with regard to the EPS in the Dow Jones are completely exaggerated. According to Kee, an average EPS growth of 26 percent is currently forecast for the Dow Jones in the coming year. Recently, the EPS forecast was even 32 percent, but fell slightly again due to the second corona wave and the associated lockdowns. According to the stock exchange expert, growth in earnings per share of 26 percent is still far too high, given the dwindling stimuli in the coming year and unspecified "uneven spots in the economy". Expectations are therefore likely to fall further in the coming months - and this will increase the risk of the market being overvalued, according to Kee. At the end of 2021, the price-earnings ratio for the Dow Jones under these conditions will be "higher than ever since the credit crisis, which means that it will be extremely expensive," the expert told MarketWatch. If he is right with this forecast, then in his opinion a price decline of a quarter could be the consequence.

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Global investors are betting Chinese stocks will extend their bull run and that mainland corporate earnings in 2021 will be boosted by a world economic recovery and more predictable Sino-U.S. relationship.

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Global investors are betting Chinese stocks will extend their bull run and that mainland corporate earnings in 2021 will be boosted by a world The global advisory suggests investors should now consider Chinese equities as a stand-alone allocation, rather than part of

This strategy is pursued by the expert

For investors, however, Thomas H. Kee Jr. has a simple strategy with which they can protect themselves from such a price slide and still make profits until then. As early as May, the expert recommended to "MarketWatch" as a long-term investment strategy a rotation between ETFs on the S&P 500 and cash. The portfolio manager has now renewed this recommendation. Such a simplification of the portfolio is characterized by a strong ease of use, said Keen in May. The fact that the portfolio either reflects the market or switches to cash allows investors to protect themselves quickly - and that is essential in market conditions like today.

As soon as the Fed's monetary policy stimulus ends and leverage ratios become "ridiculous," investors should switch to cash, Keen said in May. Because then it will quickly become "hard and brutal" on the market. Until then, however, investors should remain broadly diversified in the market via ETFs "and ride the wave until the music stops," says Experte.Redaktion finanzen.net

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