Classics Early Indicator for Inflation: Greatest increase in producer prices Since 1974

13:35  20 october  2021
13:35  20 october  2021 Source:   tagesspiegel.de

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by 14.2 percent, producer prices climbed in September compared to the same month last year. This is mainly due to the high energy costs.

Besonders hoch waren die Preisanstiege bei Nadelschnittholz. © Photo: Thomas Frey / DPA The price increases were particularly high at coniferous wood.

The prices of German manufacturers Climbing record to record. The producer prices of commercial products increased by 14.2 percent in September at the same month last year and thus as strong as for almost 47 years, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Wednesday. There was a larger plus last in October 1974, when prices even walked around 14.5 percent because of the first oil crisis. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected 12.7 percent only after the increase in increase in the increase in August had still 12.0 percent.

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Compared to the previous month of August 2021, producers' prices of commercial products rose by 2.3 percent according to the Federal Office. Without consideration of the development of energy prices, they increased by only 0.4 percent compared to the previous month and by 8.6 percent year-on-year.

Main cause for development were price jumps in energy, which increased by 32.6 percent in September compared to the same month of the previous year. Natural gas (plus 58.9 percent) increased particularly significantly. As the Federal Office farther, the energy prices in September 2021 were on average 32.6 percent higher than in the same month last year. Alone compared to the previous month 2021, they increased by 8.0 percent.

At the same time, the prices of many high-speed goods such as wood and metals rose strongly. Background, high demand for global economic recovery after corona shock and partly significant problems in international goods trade, which ensure scarcities.

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Especially high were the price increases in September compared to the same month of the previous year at coniferous wood ( Plus 117.9 percent), with wood packaging (plus 92.5 percent), secondary raw materials (plus 87.2 percent) and concrete steel in rods (plus 81.8 percent). Metals were average 35.5 percent more expensive than a year earlier.

The producer prices are considered a premature indicator for the development of inflation. In the statistics, prices are conducted from the factory gate - so before the products are further processed or come into the trade. You can thus give an early reference to the development of consumer prices. The inflation rate is currently already as high as NO with 4.1 percent, but no longer since 1993 and could, according to economists, move in the coming months in the direction of five percent


"The main responsibility for the increase in commercial producer prices compared to September 2020 was the price trend in energy," explained the statisticians. She completed an average of 32.6 percent, by eight percent at the previous month alone. If one clamps energy, producer prices were only 8.6 percent over the previous year. (Reuters, DPA, AFP) X1

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