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Reviews Study shows when and why the Tübing model project has led to higher infection numbers

10:40  02 may  2021
10:40  02 may  2021 Source:   businessinsider.de

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With the entry into force of the Federal Note Brake, the Tübing model project "Open certainly" has also ended , which had always caused criticism in recent weeks. Scientists of the Universities Mainz, Tübingen and South Denmark had scientifically accompanied the project. They wanted to see if the infection numbers in Tübingen would change through the project.

The Head of the Study, Klaus Wälde, had said : "To get a really objective answer to the question of how the infection numbers in Tübingen had developed without a model project, one would need the district twice: once with and once without model project , Therefore, we have created a control group, a kind of synthetic Tübingen, and the real ones compared with it.

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The scientists calculated with the so-called "Synthetic Control Method" therefore an artificial congestion city. In addition, they took the numbers from Heidelberg and Freiburg in Breisgau - both also Baden-Württemberg University Cities with comparable population numbers and demographic distributions. Low weighted, the districts Enzkreis and Heilbronn were also included in the control group.

Now their results are as preprint before , so have not yet been examined by other experts. As out of the Form shows, the infection to Len in Tübingen during the model project temporarily increased significantly more significantly than in the virtual comparison city

infection numbers increased more strongly - compared to synthetic control group

"Open certainly" had begun on March 16. The city had given inhabitants and visitors the opportunity to obtain a so-called daily ticket after a negative rapid test. Among other things, the shops of retail and outdoor gastronomy could be used. In addition, cinemaesearch and other cultural events were possible.

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Although the starting situation was conveniently favorable - the 7-day incidence in Tübingen was below 50 prior to the start of loosening under 50 -, the infection numbers increased significantly during the project. "At the end of March, we observe a significant increase in infection numbers in Tübingen against those of the control group," says Wälde. So the incidence rose in the barely three weeks to the Easter weekend of the 3rd/4. April to 144. At this time, the control group was a significantly lower incidence of 100. Tübingen had already closed the exterior gastronomy again on 1 April.

In the following days, the calculated difference between Tübingen and the control group then gradually decreased, report researchers. On April 13, 2021 finally - the end of the observation period - the infection numbers in Tübingen were only just above those of the control group. "It may be to explain that on April 1, the exterior gastronomy was exempted from the model project and was closed again and that no one was allowed to participate from outside the district of Tübingen on the project," says Wälde.

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One possibility was also that this could also be due to a positive effect of infections additionally identified by the additional rapid tests. The scientists therefore calculated what proportion could additionally have discovered infections for Tübingen and the control group by the additional rapid tests.

The result: The difference in the 7-day incidence between Tübingen and the control group decreased, for example, for April 4 from 46 to about 33 points, if the infections discovered by the additional tests were additionally taken into account. Overall, Wälde says, the invoices showed that the increase in incidence by increasing testing could be explained to a not inconsiderable part - but far from being complete.

as Tübingen's Lord Mayor Boris Palmer (the Greens) the model project forced with the entry into force of the Federal Notebremse forced to finished, the incidence in the district of Tübingen was 181.5 - and thus as many places far above the 100er border, which requires stricter measures.

  Studie zeigt, wann und warum das Tübinger Modellprojekt zu höheren Infektionszahlen geführt hat © Provided by Business Insider Germany

FJ / SB

Coronavirus - Modellprojekt „Öffnen mit Sicherheit“ Tübingen © Picture Alliance / dpa / Sebastian Gollnow Coronavirus - Model Project "Open Certainly" Tübingen

Study shows when and why the Tübing model project has led to higher infection numbers .
With the entry into force of the Federal Note Brake, the Tübing model project "Open certainly" has also ended , which had always caused criticism in recent weeks. Scientists of the Universities Mainz, Tübingen and South Denmark had scientifically accompanied the project. They wanted to see if the infection numbers in Tübingen would change through the project.

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