Food Oil: the rebound in production in Libya, fragile and high stakes

13:35  20 january  2021
13:35  20 january  2021 Source:   pressfrom.com

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" Libyan crude is very high quality and the world needs [it]. It's used in transportation, energy production and high -value products ," says Mr Huseynov. He argues that the return of Libyan production to the international oil markets will "put downward pressure on the price of Brent crude

" The rebound of Libyan production stalled the rally," Gene McGillian, manager of market research for Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut Libya has sought to boost crude exports after fighting among rival militias hobbled oil production following the overthrow in 2011 of Moammar Al Qaddafi.

Une raffinerie de pétrole près de Ras Lanouf (nord de la Libye), le 3 juin 2020 © - An oil refinery near Ras Lanouf (northern Libya), June 3, 2020

The production of OPEC members has was once again pulled upwards in December by Libyan oil which, after having suffered badly from the local chaos, is recovering thanks to a ceasefire signed in October.

Almost ten years after the fall of Muammar Kadhafi, Libya remains torn between rival powers, against a background of foreign interference: the Government of National Unity (GNA) recognized by the UN and based in Tripoli, and the Marshal's camp Khalifa Haftar, in the east.

While this country has the most abundant reserves in Africa, this rebound remains fragile and black gold is at the heart of economic and political issues.

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Mustafa Sanalla, chairman of Libya ’s internationally recognized National Oil Corporation (NOC), held meetings with 24 hours North Dakota’s Oil Production Won’t Rebound Until 2022. 1 day Chinese Gas Company Boasts Rising Output. 6 days Aramco To Sell Stakes In Subsidiaries To Raise Cash.

However, a rebound in oil production in Nigeria and Libya threatens to put downward pressure on the price of international benchmark , Smith said. That would chip away at U.S. oil 's discount and make overseas buyers think twice about buying American barrels, he said.

What is the state of production?

Thanks to Libya, the production of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reached 25.36 million barrels / day in December (+278,000 b / d over one month).

In Libya, it grew 136,000 barrels per day, reaching 1.224 million bpd in December after more than doubling in November. Before the ceasefire, production was only 121,000 bpd in the third quarter of 2020, ten times less than today.

But it remains below the level of "before the fall of the regime of Muammar Gaddafi, when Libya produced (...) 1.5 to 1.6 million barrels per day," Francis told AFP Perrin, research director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations.

At the time, the Libyan economy was based almost 90% on this industry.

Despite the current rebound, "the oil industry remains in difficulty," warns Al-Mahdi Omar, a Libyan petroleum engineer. "It is a miracle that the oil sector continues to function despite dilapidated infrastructure damaged by war, neglect or sabotage."

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Oil prices have hit their highest levels in two-and-a-half years after violence in Libya disrupted output and markets feared that the unrest could spread to larger oil producing nations. Brent crude hit 9.79 a barrel in early Thursday trade, before falling back to 1.36.

Libya ’s oil output plunged to the lowest level since August 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Production stopped at its biggest field, the 300,000-barrel-a-day World leaders including Vladimir Putin and Angela Merkel talk on the sidelines of a Peace summit on Libya in Berlin, Jan.

Are there still any out-of-service fields?

No. The Tripoli-based National Petroleum Company (NOC), the only one authorized to market Libyan crude, announced in October the lifting of the state of force majeure - allowing an exemption from its liability in the event of breach of contracts. - on the last blocked field.

This decision was made possible by the lifting of the blockades decided in September by the forces of Marshal Haftar.

A year ago, the pro-Haftar blocked production and exports from the most important fields and terminals in an attempt to demand a more equitable distribution of revenues, managed by Tripoli.

But the failure in mid-2020 of his offensive on the capital convinced Khalifa Haftar to give up this means of pressure.

This blockage of some eight months, however, resulted in nearly $ 10 billion in losses, according to the NOC.

Is there still room for improvement?

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OPEC may cap oil production in Libya and Nigeria. Investing.com - Crude contined to rebound mildly in The production -cut agreement has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect

This is a list of countries by oil production , as compiled from the U.S. Energy Information Administration database for calendar year 2019

The NOC announced in mid-January the closure of an oil pipeline for maintenance work.

Above all, if there are "margins for progress", they are "not immediate", affirms Mr. Perrin.

"In the medium term, Libya could go higher. In the short term, if it manages to maintain the current level, it will be very good", continues the expert, estimating that "the main uncertainty is political".

The lifting of the blockades is part of "a provisional agreement, a truce, it is not a peace agreement", he notes.

For the Libyan economist Nouri el-Hammi, "only a fair distribution of revenues and the creation of real development opportunities will be able to solve the problems of the sector", he argues.

What weight in the negotiations?

This question of distribution is a source of frequent tension as negotiations take place under the auspices of the UN.

It is "a key element of the discussions", confirms Francis Perrin: "Which could possibly make it possible to either consolidate the emerging truce or to make it derail".

In the meantime, "it is a sword of Damocles" for a sector at the mercy of new blockages "if the discussions on sharing (...) do not lead to a compromise", says the research director at the 'Iris.

Since its discovery in the country at the end of the 1950s, "everything that concerns Libya has undoubtedly something to do with oil", adds Al-Mahdi Omar.

According to this petroleum engineer, the dialogue launched by the UN "cannot circumvent" the issue of the country's main resource.

Despite its turmoil, the sector still represented 60% of Libyan gross domestic product in 2018.

"It is at the heart of negotiations between Libyan adversaries ... but also between their foreign supporters", adds Mr. Omar.

bur-hme-rb-jmi / gk / elm

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