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Offbeat Analysis: Winners and losers from the first big primary day of 2018

05:50  09 may  2018
05:50  09 may  2018 Source:   msn.com

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Three big Senate primaries and one big governor's race. Analysis Interpretation of the news based on evidence, including data, as well as anticipating how events After a couple of ridiculously early primaries in March, we saw our first major Senate primaries of 2018 on Tuesday in Indiana, Ohio

The Fix’s Aaron Blake looks at the winners and losers from the first big primary day of 2018 and what it means for control of Congress in November.

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Primary season is underway. After a couple ridiculously early primaries in March, we saw our first major Senate primaries of 2018 Tuesday in Indiana, Ohio and West Virginia. And the results had big implications for Republicans' efforts to hold the Senate in November.

We also saw, in Ohio, perhaps the first big result of Democrats' all-important effort to win back key governor's races in hopes of preventing GOP redistricting dominance after the 2020 election. And in North Carolina, two House GOP incumbents were in trouble.

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The Fix’s Aaron Blake looks at the winners and losers from the first big primary day of 2018 and what it means for control of Congress in November.

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large. Updated 1745 GMT (0145 HKT) May 9, 2018 . Chat with us in Facebook Messenger. My picks are below. WINNERS . * Mitch McConnell: The Senate majority leader became an issue in the West Virginia Senate primary when coal mine owner/ex-con

Below, some winners and losers.

WINNERS

The GOP's nightmare scenario

It's a pretty low bar to say you've won just because a clearly disastrous candidate lost your primary, but this is a special case. The possibility that ex-con Don Blankenship might win the West Virginia GOP Senate primary — despite overseeing a mine where 29 miners were killed and later serving a year in jail on a related charge — was a real one, and a really troubling one. But perhaps even worse than handing this “toss-up” seat back to Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) would be the message it would send to other GOP candidates: To be as conspiratorial and use as many racial dog whistles as you want.

Blankenship finished a distant third behind state Attorney General Patrick Morrissey and Rep. Evan Jenkins. Still, the fact that he got around 20 percent and seemed to have a chance is remarkable.

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Democrats' redistricting hopes

Democrats are in an unenviable position when it comes to winning back power in the states and Congress: They face huge deficits in many state legislative chambers that get to draw the maps. That means winning key governor's races is their best way to get a seat at the table in states like Ohio, where they control only one-third of the state House and nine out of 33 state Senate seats. Amber Phillips and I outlined seven redistricting-related governor's races in 2018 and 2020 a while back.

Well, good news for Democrats in the first primary of those seven races: Their preferred candidate, former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Richard Cordray, easily dispatched former congressman Dennis Kucinich on Tuesday. He'll face former senator and current Ohio attorney general Mike DeWine (R), who unseated Cordray for that job in 2010.

House incumbent loses primary for 1st time in 2018 election cycle

  House incumbent loses primary for 1st time in 2018 election cycle North Carolina's Rep. Robert Pittenger became the first House incumbent to lose his seat in a primary in the 2018 midterm election cycle, conceding the race Tuesday to conservative pastor Mark Harris. Pittenger, a 69-year-old Republican who was first elected in 2012, trailed Harris by 2 percentage points with just one precinct left to report. It was a rematch of their razor-tight 2016 primary, with government spending taking center stage.

Winners include Trump and Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez. Headlining the losers : Steve Bannon. Analysis Interpretation of the news based on evidence, including data, as well as anticipating how political battles, surprises and flameouts to bring you the biggest winners and losers of the season. 28), liberal values (she was one of the first winning candidates of the primary season who wants to

5 winners and 2 losers from the first set of this week’s primary elections. Takeaways from New Jersey, Alabama, New Mexico, and other June 5 was the biggest primary day of the year — but it may take some time before all the election results are clear. Many of the most-watched races are in

(Side note: Ohio voters passed a redistricting reform measure on Tuesday, but it's scope is somewhat limited.)

The Pence dynasty

The above title is tongue-in-cheek, but we did see the rise of the Other Pence on Tuesday. Greg Pence (the vice president's older brother) won a rather sleepy contest for the GOP nomination in Indiana's 6th district, where Rep. Luke Messer (R) was running for Senate and where Mike Pence once served. According to the New York Times, “In his first run for public office, Mr. Pence, 61, ran a largely hermetic race, declining to debate his opponents and refusing most requests for interviews.” Pence won easily despite a checkered business history. His name, it seems, was enough to dominate in fundraising and win what basically amounts to a ticket to Congress.

LOSERS

Members of Congress

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If there was one descriptor you didn't want next to your name Tuesday, it was “congressman.” Two of them (Messer and Todd Rokita) lost to wealthy businessman Mike Braun in the Indiana GOP Senate primary to face Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.). One of them (Evan Jenkins) trailed Morrissey in the West Virginia GOP Senate primary. Another (Kucinich) lost in Ohio. Even Rep. Jim Renacci, who probably should have won the GOP nod to face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) rather easily and had Trump's backing, failed to crest 50 percent.

Democratic Women Were Big Winners In Tuesday's Primaries

  Democratic Women Were Big Winners In Tuesday's Primaries More than half of the winning Democratic candidates for House seats in Tuesday’s primary elections were women ― a fresh indication of women’s sustained political mobilization since President Donald Trump’s election. In the four states that held primary elections — Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia — 22 out of 40 congressional districts picked women as their Democratic nominees, including eight black women, according to Gender Watch 2018, a project of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.Women won 17 of 20 Democratic primary races for open seats, according to Politico.

Political analysis from The Washington Post's @aaronblake, @byamberphillips, @eugene_scott @riegerreport and @colbyitkowitz. You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications.

Winners & losers after day 1 of the 2018 NFL Draft. The Browns surprised many by taking Baker Mayfield at 1, Josh Rosen fell farther than some imagined he would, and the Saints maybe spent too much on a player with a high ceiling - who are the winners and losers after the first day of the draft?

The Braun dynasty

Alas, not all Indiana political dynasties are created equal. Despite Mike Braun's ascent in the Senate race, his brother Steve failed to follow in Greg Pence's footsteps and lost his GOP primary in Indiana's 4th district.

The Bear-hug Trump strategy

Tuesday's primaries were the first big test of an increasingly popular GOP primary strategy: When in doubt, bear-hug the president. Blankenship declared himself “Trumpier than Trump” (despite Trump urging people not to vote for him). Rokita went to massive lengths to associate himself with Trump, including donning a MAGA hat in an ad all about aligning with Trump and proposing legislation to hurry along Robert S. Mueller III's investigation. And Rep. Robert Pittenger (R-N.C.) tried not to go 30 seconds without mentioning Trump in his tough primary, which he trailed late Tuesday night.

Aligning with Trump is probably a fixture of GOP primaries for now, but there's a difference between doing it a little bit and doing it a lot. We'll see how it shakes out going forward, but so far it looks like a strategy of desperation more than anything.

Brad Little wins Idaho's GOP gubernatorial primary .
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