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Offbeat The Iran Deal Is Dead. Now What?

19:20  10 may  2018
19:20  10 may  2018 Source:   nationalreview.com

AP FACT CHECK: Trump's oft-told tale of US payout to Iran

  AP FACT CHECK: Trump's oft-told tale of US payout to Iran President Donald Trump likes to tell a story about the U.S. paying out billions of dollars to Iran as part of the multinational deal freezing its nuclear program and easing sanctions against it. What he doesn't say is that most of that money was Iran's to begin with. The rest relates to an old debt the U.S. had with Iran.The numbers and some details change in his retelling — dating back to the 2016 campaign — but his bottom line is always the same: The Obama administration was hoodwinked into giving Iran all that money, some of it in a huge and hidden bundle of cash.

What Now ? Trump has fulfilled a long-standing promise. Trump's move is a win for Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu, who broke with his own military experts and the broader international community to push for ending the Iran deal .

President Trump announced Tuesday that he will reimpose sanctions on Iran , effectively ending America’s commitment to the nuclear deal signed in 2015. Now what ? Predicting the short- and long-term consequences of Trump’s move is tricky

President Donald Trump reacts to a question from the media after announcing his intention to withdraw from the JCPOA Iran nuclear agreement in the Diplomatic Room at the White House on May 8, 2018. © Jonathan Ernst/Reuters President Donald Trump reacts to a question from the media after announcing his intention to withdraw from the JCPOA Iran nuclear agreement in the Diplomatic Room at the White House on May 8, 2018.

Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

One of the worst, most misguided, most destructive international “deals” in American history is now dead. Good. President Obama’s foreign-policy legacy, based in part on the flawed notion that “legitimate grievances” against America were the fuel for the jihadist fire, has now been rejected. Good. The Trump administration now fully owns American foreign policy, and it’s now fully responsible for dealing with Iran.

IAEA declines to directly address Netanyahu's Iran accusations

  IAEA declines to directly address Netanyahu's Iran accusations The U.N. atomic watchdog declined to directly address the Israeli leader's accusations that Iran was breaching its landmark nuclear deal.Netanyahu on Monday stepped up pressure on the United States to pull out of the 2015 deal, presenting what he called evidence of a secret Iranian nuclear weapons program. Iran is known to have had a weapons program until 2003; analysts and diplomats said he appeared to be recycling old accusations.

The Iran Nuclear Deal Is Dead . What Now ? - cetusnews - www.cetusnews.com. If the deal is considered dead , Iran would no longer be obliged to allow international nuclear inspectors "so that we lose what visibility we have there," Rep.

Now What ? Share on Facebook F. The pendulum has swung decisively in favor of Donald Trump “nixing” the Iran nuclear deal at the earliest possible opportunity.

Good?

The correction of a serious error always requires taking multiple steps, and the first — in this case, Trump’s withdrawal from the deal — is typically the easiest. It’s the crowd-pleaser. It fulfills the campaign promise. The next step is to pursue a new and better course, and that is far more difficult. There are good reasons why so many administrations — each arriving with new and distinct foreign-policy strategies — have failed to “fix” the Middle East. The hatreds run deep, America’s enemies play a very long game, and our power has profound limits even when troops are deployed in force.

Given those realities, what should America do about Iran now?

First, and critically, it should resist any immediate urge to engage in a new round of deal-making with the jihadist regime. It’s time to reset the strategic picture, not to come to the table as new, better negotiators. That’s the sucker’s bet. The American message in the interim should be clear: Any move by Iran to ramp up its nuclear program will be seen as a threat to vital American interests and dealt with accordingly. There will be severe costs to any change in the nuclear status quo, and Iran must be aware of that fact.

Iran's president: US ending deal will be 'historic regret'

  Iran's president: US ending deal will be 'historic regret' Iran's president is warning President Donald Trump that pulling America out of the nuclear deal with world powers would be a "historic regret.President Hassan Rouhani made the comments Sunday in the city of Sabzevar while on a tour of Iran's Razavi Khorasan province.

Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal was easy. Now comes the hard work of crafting and implementing a better strategy for dealing with Tehran. National Security & Defense. The Iran Deal Is Dead . Now What ?

One of the worst, most misguided, most destructive international “ deals ” in American history is now dead . Given those realities, what should America do about Iran now ?

Second, I agree with Eli Lake: “The most urgent task now for Trump is increasing the odds of success for Iran’s democracy movement.” Iran isn’t North Korea. There does exist a domestic reform movement that has more than a puncher’s chance of achieving real change. Yet, as Lake notes, Obama’s Iran deal “enriched the regime that Iran’s democrats are hoping to change.”

There is no clear, easy path to democratic reform in Iran, and Lake is absolutely correct that “Iranians will be the authors of their own liberation.” But there are still measures the administration can take — from specifically targeted sanctions to support for the means and measures that allow dissidents to communicate and coordinate — to put America’s thumb on the scale for reform rather than for Iran’s theocratic regime.

Third, we must beat Iran on the battlefield, not by invading or declaring war but instead by ensuring the endurance and ultimate victory of our allies in the proxy conflicts raging across the Middle East. We must not abandon our allies in Syria, and we must not cede even an additional inch of territory to the combined Iranian/Russian/Assad forces in that country’s northeast. We should provide prudent and proper aid to Israeli efforts to weaken Iranian-backed forces in Syria and Lebanon. And we must work to curb Iranian influence in Iraq.

Oil pops above $70 for first time since 2014

  Oil pops above $70 for first time since 2014 Rising oil prices just passed another milestone as traders prepare for the possibility that President Trump will abandon the Iran nuclear deal.Oil prices have been climbing partly because of expectations that President Donald Trump will abandon the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which allowed Iran to export more crude.

One of the worst, most misguided, most destructive international “ deals ” in American history is now dead . Given those realities, what should America do about Iran now ? First, and critically, it should resist any immediate urge to engage in a new round of deal -making with the jihadist regime.

Now What ? The pendulum has swung decisively in favor of Donald Trump “nixing” the Iran nuclear deal at the earliest possible opportunity.

When America pulled back from the Middle East under Obama, Iran surged forward. It soon reached a high-water mark of power and influence. It helped the Assad regime first cling to power and then turn the tide in the Syrian Civil War. It exerted extraordinary influence in Iraq. It pressured the position of America’s allies in Afghanistan. It helped turn Yemen into a bloody battleground.

If the Obama administration hoped the Iran deal would somehow moderate Iran, it was sorely mistaken. Instead, the Islamic Republic maintained its aggressive military posture and kept trying to kill American troops. It’s time for America and its allies to advance and for Iran to recede.

Advocates for the Iran deal presented Americans with a false choice: accept the deal’s terms or face war with Iran. But the deal was negotiated from a posture of extraordinary, entirely self-imposed weakness. The world’s greatest economic and military power walked into the negotiation as if it had the most to fear from military conflict, as if it was desperate to avoid war.

It’s time to reverse that dynamic. By any reasonable measure, Iran has the more to fear from armed confrontation with the U.S. than we have to fear from armed confrontation with Iran. The United States could cripple the Iranian military, wreck the Iranian economy, and destroy Iran’s known nuclear facilities without suffering (or even realistically risking) serious military losses. Iran should react with horror at that prospect, not the United States.

Iran president warns of 'problems' as Trump decision looms

  Iran president warns of 'problems' as Trump decision looms Iran's president has warned the country could face "some problems" ahead of President Donald Trump's decision on whether to pull out of its nuclear deal with world powers. Without directly naming Trump, Rouhani's remarks on Tuesday at a petroleum conference in Tehran represented the first official Iranian comment on the U.S. president's overnight tweet that he'd make an announcement on the deal Tuesday. "It is possible that we will face some problems for two or three months, but we will pass through this," Rouhani said.Rouhani also stressed Iran wants to keep "working with the world and constructive engagement with the world.

Now what ? Oil futures are up a buck. The SPDR Energy Select Sector (XLE) is up 1.8% Wednesday morning, and the S&P 500 is up a half a percent. The Iran nuclear deal is dead from Washington's perspective.

Now what ? Experts say the decision will make it harder for Iran to engage with the international community and could empower hard-liners in If the deal is considered dead , Iran would no longer be obliged to allow international nuclear inspectors “so that we lose what visibility we have there,” Rep.

As it is, the United States has absorbed blow after blow from Iran and its proxy forces. Iranian weapons have killed and maimed hundreds of American soldiers. Iran’s Quds Force was directly involved in attacks on U.S. troops. Iran has sponsored and directed anti-American terror that has claimed hundreds more lives. Arguably no nation in recent history has taken more deadly action against the United States without a corresponding American response. No wonder the regime believed it could dictate terms to the Obama administration.

No one should be under any illusions that alternative paths forward aren’t also perilous. There is no easy answer to the crisis in the Middle East. Indeed, to even speak of definitive “answers” is fundamentally misguided. But there is a proper response to Iranian aggression and to Iranian nuclear ambitions: We must work to weaken the mullahs and then – assuming they remain in power – to deal with Iran from a position of confidence and strength.

In his piece urging support for democratic reform in Iraq, Lake refers to Iran specialist Kenneth Pollack’s “two clocks” theory of Iranian engagement: There’s a “countdown to nuclear weapons, and a countdown to democracy,” so “the best guide for U.S. policy [is] to try to slow down the former to give more time for the latter.”

The Obama administration sacrificed the countdown to democracy in the effort to slow the countdown to nuclear weapons, and it harmed American interests. Now, we need a fundamentally different approach: Hasten the countdown to democracy while deterring the countdown to a jihadist bomb. No deals for now — let’s weaken Iran and change the strategic calculus first. Then, and only then, the negotiating table may yield a meaningful result.

The Latest: White House condemns Iran's 'reckless actions' .
The White House is condemning Iran's "reckless actions," accusing the country of "exporting destabilizing influence throughout the Middle East." White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders has issued a statement citing actions in Syria and Saudi Arabia. She is calling on "responsible nations" to pressure Iran to "change this dangerous behavior.

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