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Offbeat Buffett's buy-and-hold approach might be wrong for you

23:22  15 may  2018
23:22  15 may  2018 Source:   usatoday.com

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You may lack the intestinal fortitude to stick with Warren Buffett ' s buy - and - hold approach to investing during a severe stock market drop. That’s because your fears and hopes almost certainly will lead you in the wrong direction. More Money: Trans fats should be banned, World Health Organization says.

Buy and hold , also called position trading, is an investment strategy where an investor buys stocks and holds them for a long time, with the goal that stocks will gradually increase in value over a long period of time.

As he's done at virtually every other Berkshire Hathaway meeting over the last five decades, CEO Warren Buffett argued at the company's annual gathering this month that investors should buy and hold a stock index fund for the long term.

What has changed over the years, however, is investors’ receptivity to Buffett’s approach, which calls for holding onto stocks through thick and thin regardless of ups-and-downs in the market.

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Warren Buffett did not become a billionaire with simple buy - and - hold investing. That may be a bold statement to make, but once you understand his actual techniques of accumulating wealth, then you will be able to begin running your own investments in a similar way.

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Investors recently have been far more willing to believe him than they were at the depths of the financial crisis a decade ago, for example.

The reasons for this shift are a cautionary tale showing why you shouldn’t let your emotions rule your portfolio.

That’s because your fears and hopes will almost certainly lead you in the wrong direction.

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You are likely, for instance, to abandon buying and holding just when you should be more committed than ever. That time is at the bottom of a bear market — just as a new bull market is about to begin. But guess what? Since market bottoms are when the stock market is sitting on the biggest losses, that’s when buying and holding is the least popular.

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May 5, 2016, 6:47 PM. Warren Buffett , chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett sure does buy and hold , but he also uses complex transactions to hedge his portfolio when markets move against And I think we should follow his footsteps and buy the euro as well. Don't get me wrong .

Buy and hold is a passive investment strategy for which an investor buys stocks and holds them for a long period regardless of Why Buffett ' s Buy - And - Hold Strategy Is Losing Its Appeal. How these two investing approaches work – and how to decide which best suits your precious nest egg.

On the other hand, you'll likely be tempted to embrace buying and holding at the worst possible time — when the market is lofty and headed for a fall. It’s at the end of long bull markets that buying and holding is most popular.

Just the opposite is true for a market timing approach, which calls for going in and out of stocks and other investments based on factors like Wall Street trading patterns and economic signals. The best time to become a market timer is at a top, as a new bear market is about to begin.

That’s not because market timers are more competent during bear markets, but because any time they move out of stocks and into cash during declines, they'll gain ground on buying and holding — even if those times out of the market are picked by a market timer who has no ability.

In the 2007-2009 bear market, for example, the average stock shed nearly 60% of its value. Other than Mr. Buffett, true believers in buying and holding were few and far between at the March 2009 bottom. Indeed, a widely-expressed view among the investment newsletter editors I monitor was that “buy and hold” was dead.

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( Buy and hold ). Why do you think more people don't follow your advice? What can go wrong at Berkshire? What is Berkshire' s cost of capital? Given you [ Buffett and Munger] are Berkshire’ s sustainable competitive advantage, would you invest in Berkshire now?

Berkshire Hathaway has taken a different approach and instead focused on investing in the right companies. 10) Buy It Thinking You Will Hold It Forever. “Our favorite holding period is forever.” Love these Warren Buffett quotes? You may also enjoy these articles

Today, by contrast, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index more than four times higher than where it stood at that bottom, we are at the opposite extreme. Most of the buy-and-hold skeptics have become converts to the approach. Now it’s market timing whose usefulness is being questioned.

Note carefully that investors’ shifting opinions towards buying and holding, and market timing have nothing to do with their statistical merits. As Mr. Buffett often notes, hardly any market timers are able to do better than an index fund over the very long term. He’s right, of course.

As you ponder whether to follow his advice, however, the question before you is not statistical as much as it is psychological. Are you willing to remain a buy-and-hold investor through the next bear market?

There’s no shame in admitting that you don’t have the stomach for those big losses. What you don’t want to do is to discover, at the bottom of the next bear market, that you don’t have what it takes.

Far better to sell some stocks and start building up cash in your portfolio now, with the market at relatively high levels. Even if you don’t catch the exact top — and it’s unlikely that you will — you still will be far better off than throwing in the towel at the bottom of the next bear.

Only if you have the rare intestinal fortitude required to truly stick with an index fund through a severe bear market should you now be taking Buffett’s advice to buy and hold.

Mark Hulbert, founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest, has been tracking investment advisers' performances for four decades. For more information, email him at [email protected] or go to www.hulbertratings.com.

Buffett says interest rates are key in determining stock values .
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