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Offbeat Rate of new Ebola cases has doubled since September

16:05  11 october  2018
16:05  11 october  2018 Source:   msn.com

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Monthly aggregate Ebola cases in the West Africa epidemic 2014–15. On 5 April 2016, it was reported that there had been 9 new cases of Ebola since the virus resurfaced On 14 September 2015, Sierra Leone's National Ebola Response Center confirmed the death of a By November 2014, the rate of new infections in Liberia appeared to be declining and the state of emergency was lifted.

Liberia has been the worst-hit, with more than 4,800 dead and 10,672 becoming infected. The WHO said that at the peak of transmission, during It caused fever, diarrhoea and vomiting. It also had a high death rate . Of the first 86 cases , 59 people died. The WHO later confirmed the disease as Ebola .

Congolese health workers register people and take their temperatures before they are vaccinated against Ebola in the village of Mangina in North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo, August 18, 2018.© REUTERS/Olivia Acland Congolese health workers register people and take their temperatures before they are vaccinated against Ebola in the village of Mangina in North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo, August 18, 2018.

LONDON — The rate of new Ebola cases has more than doubled since September after rebel violence in northeastern Congo caused response efforts to be briefly suspended, health officials said Thursday.

In a statement, the International Rescue Committee said it was "alarmed" that there were 33 new cases between Oct. 1 and Tuesday, versus 41 cases during all of September.

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The first cases of the current West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (hereafter referred to as Reported cases were compared with estimated cases as of September 9, 2014, for Liberia and September isolated, the outbreak decreases at a rate nearly equal to the initial rate of increase. Shaman J. Columbia prediction of infectious diseases: Ebola forecasts. New York, NY: Columbia

The fact is that there’s been no increase in new cases at least since early September . Says who? In a sense, everything you need to know about the veracity of those nightmarish Ebola epidemic projections was At that point, case incidence was doubling every 4.3 weeks. If that rate of increase continues there Yes, the WHO’s Ebola epidemic region has been reduced to only three countries.

Most of the new cases have been in Beni, where experts had to suspend Ebola containment efforts for days after a deadly rebel attack. With multiple armed groups active in the region, health officials have said they are effectively operating in a war zone.

"This is a sign not only that the outbreak is not under control, but that without full engagement from the community things could get a lot worse," said Dr. Michelle Gayer, the IRC's senior director of emergency health.

Earlier this week, the World Health Organization noted that all of the health workers who have caught Ebola in this epidemic — 19 so far — have been infected outside of hospitals or clinics, meaning that the virus is spreading in the community.

WHO has warned that the risk for Ebola's regional spread is "very high," pointing out that Congo's affected North Kivu and Ituri provinces share borders with Uganda and Rwanda. WHO said the risk for international spread remains low.

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Federal officials have assessed more than 100 potential cases , but the only confirmed case is in Dallas, where the condition of the man with Ebola Since the disease began spreading rapidly across West Africa this summer, the C.D.C. said, it has assessed more than 100 possible cases , but only the

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is preparing a worst- case -scenario report on the West African Ebola outbreak. New treatments and potential vaccines are being tested in a trial-by-fire in West Africa, with the WHO’s “In the three weeks since then the numbers have doubled , so all "If the epidemic continues at this growth rate and produces more and more cases , obviously the

Although the U.N. health agency said experts this week were monitoring more than 2,100 contacts of Ebola cases in Beni, the outbreak's epicenter, it said it had lost track of another 40. Community fears have posed a challenge as the region faces its first Ebola outbreak.

WHO said health workers were searching for a confirmed case who left an Ebola clinic in Beni and "went missing in an unsecured area of Kalunguta." The spread of the virus to "red zones," where the threat of armed groups makes health efforts almost impossible, is a major concern.

Congo's healthy ministry says that to date there have been 159 confirmed cases, including 87 deaths. More than 15,000 people have been immunized with a novel vaccine since this outbreak was declared on Aug. 1.

WHO said health workers burying Ebola victims, whose bodies are infectious, have encountered "a new level of aggression" from communities and that efforts to safely bury people have stopped in certain areas.

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By Jason Lange

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