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OffbeatOpinion: This is what’s happened to stocks after every midterm election since World War II

10:05  06 november  2018
10:05  06 november  2018 Source:   marketwatch.com

Bannon on midterm elections: Republicans will hold Senate; House a ‘complete dogfight’

Bannon on midterm elections: Republicans will hold Senate; House a ‘complete dogfight’ Former Trump White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon said November's midterm elections are a referendum on President Trump and said he thinks predictions of a blue wave are overblown. 

LIVE: Follow MarketWatch’ s analysis of midterm election results. This is causing big-time anxiety for investors who’ve enjoyed the 28% stock market rally since Trump took office. No matter what you think of Trump, his reign as president has been great for stocks . But as the election has drawn closer

My Team Studied Every Midterm Election Since World War II . I was surprised by what we found. It turns out there’ s a shockingly easy way to Here’ s what we found… Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections . US Stocks Have Climbed Higher in the Next 12 months After Every Single One.

Opinion: This is what’s happened to stocks after every midterm election since World War II Unlce Sam wants you ... to invest.

The opinions in this article are the author's, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

Are you prepared for Tuesday? It’s going to be a crucial day for the stock market.

If the polls are correct, President Trump and Republicans are in big trouble. There’s an 85% chance Democrats will seize control of the House of Representatives from Republicans, according to statistical analysis firm FiveThirtyEight.

This is causing big-time anxiety for investors who’ve enjoyed the 28% stock market rally since Trump took office. No matter what you think of Trump, his reign as president has been great for stocks. But as the election has drawn closer, the market has fallen apart.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's lead narrows against Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke in crucial midterm poll

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's lead narrows against Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke in crucial midterm poll Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is losing ground in his unexpectedly competitive midterm race, according to a poll published Monday. require(["medianetNativeAdOnArticle"], function (medianetNativeAdOnArticle) { medianetNativeAdOnArticle.getMedianetNativeAds(true); }); Of 1,078 likely Lone Star State voters, 46% are supporting Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke while 51% back Cruz, according to the survey by Quinnipiac University. “O’Rourke is within striking distance,” said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the poll.

Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections . Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Leading up to midterms , U. S . stocks typically perform poorly. From January to October in midterm years, they drop an average of roughly 1%. In all other years, stocks rise roughly 7% in that

What ’ s driving the market? Midterm elections , which are expected to see Democrats take control of the House and Republicans maintain their grip on the Senate, are under way, and the results Read: Opinion : This is what ’ s happened to stocks after every midterm election since World War II .

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed out October for a 7% monthly drop, nearly its worst month since the financial crisis. So what could happen this month — and the months ahead?

First, few topics stir emotion in America like politics. Many perfectly reasonable people lose the ability to think straight when they hear the name “Trump.” As I always said at RiskHedge, politics and investing do not mix. Investor Warren Buffett often says: “If you mix politics and investing, you’re making a big mistake.”

So let’s steer clear of opinion and emotion. Instead, I want to focus solely on the facts that are relevant to you as an investor. As you’ll see, you don’t need to waste even one second worrying about which party will win on Tuesday. I was surprised by what we found.

Intelligence officials: No evidence of any attempts to tamper with midterm election systems

Intelligence officials: No evidence of any attempts to tamper with midterm election systems "There's a lot of noise—we see the typical scanning and probing—but we can't attribute it to any bad actors," said an official briefed on the intelligence. U.S. officials also told NBC News that last week the White House was sent a top secret assessment of election security produced by a newly created interagency task force. The assessment, created by NSA and U.S. Cyber Command specialists, also found no evidence that any foreign actors were working to infiltrate election infrastructure in the run up to Tuesday's midterms, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the assessment.

The midterm elections could lead to more health - care spending, helping hospital and health - care equipment stocks . The consensus: Potential electoral results could favor the outlook for policies beneficial to a wide range of hospital, pharmaceutical, and What would this mean for the markets?

Opinion : This is what ’ s happened to stocks after every midterm election since World War II . Money managers with longer- term horizons Funds focusing on short- term debt have attracted around billion of inflows in the last four weeks, the largest inflows since Feb. 2016, even as

Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections. Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Every single one. That’s 18 for 18. Even though we’ve had every possible political combination in the past 72 years. Republican president with Democratic Congress. Democratic president with Republican Congress. Republican president and Congress. Democratic president and Congress.

Since 1946, stocks have risen an average of 17% in the year after a midterm. And if you measure from the yearly midterm lows, the results are even better. From their lows, stocks jumped an average of 32% over the next 12 months. For perspective, that’s more than double the average performance for stocks in all years. We’re also entering the third year of a presidential term, which is historically the strongest year for stocks.

Take a look at this chart. You can see that the performance of stocks in the third year of a presidential term beats all other years by a long shot:

Midterm election outcome could be 'glowing good news' or 'disaster' for markets

Midterm election outcome could be 'glowing good news' or 'disaster' for markets When the polls close Tuesday night, stock strategists expect to see a Republican Senate and a Democratic House — and a still bullish scenario for stocks. That's because a split Congress would cause old-fashioned gridlock, viewed as a positive by markets as Congressional efforts to enact or reverse legislation are stymied. Bank of America Merrill Lynch says the best S&P 500 returns under a Republican president o ccurred while Congress was split, a scenario that generated 12 percent annual returns.

Market Watch, Released on 11/5/18 Stephen McBride is the editor of RiskHedge Report, a free weekly newsletter that shows how to profit from disruptive.

6 midterm elections , as the Democrats snatched back control of the House, prompting stocks to do what they have historically done once election uncertainty fades and clarity over the outcome The S &P 500, for example, has been higher a year after every midterm election since World War II .

Opinion: This is what’s happened to stocks after every midterm election since World War II© RiskHedge

Look at the chart above, and you’ll notice the second year of the presidential cycle is typically the worst for stocks. That’s the year we’re in right now — the year when midterms occur.

There’s one last important point you should know. Leading up to midterms, U.S. stocks typically perform poorly. From January to October in midterm years, they drop an average of roughly 1%. In all other years, stocks rise roughly 7% in that time frame.

Think of midterm elections like a thick fog covering markets. They obscure what the political situation will look like in the near future. Unable to see what’s coming, investors get nervous and act cautiously. Just as they would slow down while driving a car through a thick fog. Once the election concludes and the fog clears, investors regain confidence and the market gets back on track. This year is following that script to a T.

For all the market’s gyrations in the past few weeks, the S&P 500 is roughly flat this year. If we stay on script, we should expect the market to surge in November after the uncertainty of the elections is behind us.

Stephen McBride is the editor of RiskHedge Report, a free weekly newsletter that shows how to profit from disruptive trends like self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and others.

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