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OffbeatThere will be an oil shortage in the 2020's, Goldman Sachs says

14:48  09 november  2018
14:48  09 november  2018 Source:   cnbc.com

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Goldman Sachs defended its action, saying it bought the bonds -- issued in 2014 by state-run oil company PDVSA -- with the hope that life in Venezuela will improve. The value of the bonds would then rise too. "We are invested in PDVSA bonds because, like many in the asset management industry

In its report, Goldman Sachs said it expects 2017 to 2019 to be record years of startups in the industry as the “2011-13 boom in [capex] sanctioning comes A Goldman Sachs ’ s bar chart shows peak oil production from giant fields that have long lead times peaking in 2017 and remaining high in 2018 and


    There will be an oil shortage in the 2020's, Goldman Sachs says© David Sucsy/Getty Images An oil shortage is coming says Goldman Sachs, because firms cannot fully invest in future production.

    Global oil majors are increasingly looking to invest in lower-carbon areas of the energy sector, as they react to pressure for cleaner energy, both from government policy and investors.

    "In the 2020's we are going to have a clear physical shortage of oil because nobody is allowed to fully invest in future oil production," Michele Della Vigna, Head of EMEA Natural Resources Research at Goldman Sachs told CNBC Friday.

    "The low carbon transition will come through higher, not lower oil prices," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."

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    The bank says the outage of an oil -sands facility in Canada could lead to a shortage in North America for all of July and shrink stockpiles at the main He was seeking to reassure the market after several cartel members said the actual increase will only reach 700,000 because some nations are incapable

    Goldman Sachs agreed with that sentiment a few weeks ago, stating that they are growing more confident that longer-term oil price range is “drifting And they also pointed to the resilience of U.S. shale as a principle reason for oil prices remaining low not just for the near-term but into the 2020 s .

    Della Vigna said "Big Oils" are starting to understand that if they want to be widely owned by investors, they need to show that they are serious about minimizing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere.

    The Goldman analyst said oil firms only had to look at the steep derating of coal companies over the last 5 years to understand the shift in investor sentiment.

    Della Vigna said until a transition to full renewables is made, the interim battle will be to own a greater market share of gas-based power. The analyst said with a huge capital cost of gas infrastructure, big state-backed companies looked best placed.

    "We talk about the new seven sisters emerging, dominating the global oil and gas market because nobody else can finance these mega-projects," he said.

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    He expects oil will trade marginally higher as inventories normalize but remain bounded by low-cost shale production that’ s defined the New It’ s important to emphasize the OPEC production cut… is not the core of our positive outlook on oil and commodities, but rather where we are in the business cycle.

    Goldman Sachs has long been bullish on oil , and even in the face of US sanctions on Iran, and the More recently, Goldman doubled down on its prediction, saying that concerns about oil had been Breaking away from the pack, the Russian Finance ministry predicts that there will be a new oil price

    The "new Seven Sisters" of oil are considered the most influential firms from countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

    They have been identified as Saudi Aramco, Russia's Gazprom, NIOC of Iran, China National Petroleum Corp, Brazil's Petrobras, Venezuela's PDVSA, and Petronas of Malaysia. The original "Seven Sisters" were firms in the 1950s who would later consolidate to become BP, Chevron, Shell, Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell.

    Della Vigna said European oil companies such as U.K. firm Shell and French company Total are also ahead of U.S. rivals in making the transition from "big oil" to become "big energy".

    Oil markets have been weak in recent days as oversupply concerns and fears of an economic slowdown have pressured prices. Both Brent and WTI contracts entered bear markets this week as prices fell around 20 percent from their most recent highs in October.

    Apple’s first 5G iPhone will reportedly arrive in 2020.
    Apple's recent announcement that it would no longer disclose iPhone sales on a quarterly basis prompted some investors to question Apple's ability to increase sales of its iconic smartphone. The rationale behind this point of view is simple: if Apple was truly confident that iPhone sales were poised to increase, it would look forward to revealing those impressive sales figures. Without getting into the specifics behind Apple’s decision, I think it’s fair to say that iPhone sales have plenty of room for growth in the years ahead.

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