Offbeat guest contribution to Chancellor's question: New survey shows clear leadership for Söder
Star Trek fan who could boldly go and lead Germany
A veteran Bavarian leader is tipped to run for chancellor as the Merkel era ends this year.Angela Merkel has dominated German politics since 2005, but she will no longer be chancellor after the September federal election. Mr Söder is seen as the hot favourite to run as chancellor-candidate for her Christian Democrats (CDU) and their smaller Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union.
elections are always decided on the day of choice after closing the polling stalls. Even if - as well as last in Baden-Württemberg - the victory of a party has been recognizable for a long time before the election date, that must be confirmed by the voters with their voting. In this respect, the values of the parties determined six months before the general election may in no way be considered as a safe votes on election day, but only as a current political mood.
However, for the description of the starting position half a year prior to election, the sympathy values of the parties determined in surveys are quite suited. And there is a fundamental difference to all previous elections in the history of the Federal Republic: For the first time, it is no longer about whether the Union (as in 52 of the 72 years of the Federal Republic) or the SPD (as in 20 years) the Chancellor Or the Chancellor is setting. In 2021, the Union competes with the Greens therefore who occupies the chancellery for Angela Merkel.
Markus Söder wants to embed Angela Merkel in decision on Chancellor's candidate
"A Union candidate can hardly be successful without support from Angela Merkel«: CSU boss Söder once again sets a clear tip against its CDU rivals in the competition for the Chancellor's candidacy. © Peter Kneffel / DPA When Deciding on the Future Chancellor Candidates of the Union, CSU -Chef Markus Söder also involves the Chancellor Angela Merkel ( CDU ). Söder said the "picture on Sunday": "The decision on the Chancellor's candidacy should also be closely matched to Angela Merkel.
The SPD, which has been in 15 percent deep since autumn 2018, is unlikely to have a chance to put the next chancellor; For the calculus of Olaf Scholz, he would preferred from the voters for his long political experience and its competence shown by the voters to all other applicants for Merkel succession, apparently do not go to: in the chancellor preference determined by Forsa regularly (For whom would be decided if you could choose the chancellor or chancellor directly) Responders rated every five already fixed or conceivable aspirants for the office. And there is Scholz not only 25 percentage points behind Markus Söder, but also 5 percentage points behind Robert Habeck and 6 percentage points behind Annalena Baerbock, though she has no government experience so far.
"For me, you will not find a grungeys": Lashet wants to make a quick decision on Chancellor's candidacy
more and more leading CDU politicians demand clarity about who the Union leads to the general election. Also the CDU chief itself. © Photo: Christophe Gateau / dpa Armin Laschet (CDU), Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia. The CDU chairman Armin Laschet requires a quick decision on the Chancellor's Candidature of the Union.
In addition, the SPD is a significant residue of 12 percentage points to the Union and 8 percentage points to the Greens as well as with a projection of only 5 percentage points before FDP and AFD only the most third party and could therefore not put the Chancellor.
But also the Union can not be sure to be able to occupy the Chancellery for another four years. At least with a chancellor candidate lashing is more than uncertain. Armin Laschet lies like Olaf Scholz at Chancellor Preferency 5 percentage points behind Robert Habeck and 7 percentage points behind Annalena Baerbock.
Immediately after his choice taken by many with benevolence to the CDU chairman, he was 8 percentage points with 27 percent before DAUL. But in not even three months, his value dropped by 10 percentage points to now only 17 percent. Because of his lavation in the Corona policy, he is likely to have it difficult to rely on this loss of trust until election. With him as Chancellor's candidates, the opportunities of the Greens are likely to rise, the Chancellor or the Chancellor of the Republic.
Söder criticizes viewer plans: "Would encounter fierce resistance"
Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder expressed criticism of the plans of the European Football Union (UEFA) © Provided by Sport1.de Söder criticized viewer plans: "Would encounter fierce resistance " Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder expressed criticism of the plans of the European Football Union (UEFA) to subscribe to the European Championship games (11 June to 11 July) in twelve cities and explicitly against spectators - and thus also doubts about the Location Munich folded.
Great Trust Won
With a Chancellor's Candidate Söder, the Union would definitely have better chances of staying better chances of staying away from the Chancellery. Söder has gained great confidence in the Corona crisis and its high approval values remain unchanged even in the generally lower confidence in Corona policy. But in order to be able to move into the Chancellery, he would also have to improve the values of the Union, because with the current party preferences, the formation of a federal government without the participation of the CDU / CSU would be possible: the Greens had currently a governmental manner together with the SPD and the FDP Majority. And if the "Left" warehouse from Greens, SPD and Linker would give only 2 percentage points, a green-red-red alliance would have a majority.
The confidence in the Chancellor's candidate of the Union would have to be so great that this also increases the approval values for CDU and CSU again.
Manfred Gullner is a sociologist, social psychologist and business economist. The 79-year-old is founder and managing director of the Forsa Institute.
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