•   
  •   
  •   

OpinionHere's the next political truism that Trump might overturn

17:50  28 may  2019
17:50  28 may  2019 Source:   cnn.com

Trump blasts 'Fake News Sunday Political Shows,' touts economy

Trump blasts 'Fake News Sunday Political Shows,' touts economy President Trump in an early morning tweet on Sunday blasted the "Fake News Sunday Political Shows" while touting the economy and other achievements. "For all of the Fake News Sunday Political Shows, whose bias & dishonesty is greater than ever seen in our Country before, please inform your viewers that our Economy is setting records, with more people employed today than at any time in U.S. history," Trump tweeted. He also touched on the military, new Supreme Court justices and lower court judges, ObamaCare and tax and regulatory cuts in subsequent posts. "Our Country is doing GREAT!" he concluded.

The 2020 election may test as never before one of the most enduring rules of presidential politics , the straightforward four-word maxim coined by Democratic strategist James Carville in 1992: "It' s the economy, stupid.".

It' s the values, stupid: In his meteoric political career, Donald Trump has upended a succession of political rules and truisms . The next one may be views about the economy' s primacy in determining the outcome of presidential elections.

Here's the next political truism that Trump might overturn© Spencer Platt/Getty Images NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 31: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on the last day of the trading year on December 31, 2018 in New York City. Despite a continued strong economy and low unemployment, 2018 proved to be a volatile year in the financial markets with numerous record breaking trading sessions.The Dow finished up over 250 points on the final day of 2018. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

Head of anti-abortion group promises to spend $41M during 2020 election cycle

Head of anti-abortion group promises to spend $41M during 2020 election cycle The president of the nation's largest anti-abortion advocacy group said Monday night it would spend $41 million in the 2020 cycle to re-elect President Trump and "pro-life" members of Congress while advocating for more abortion restrictions at the state level. The goal, said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony List, is to eventually overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to abortion. "We'll work closely with our local allies on the most ambitious pro-life legislative agenda in history to aggressively challenge, erode and finally overturn Roe v.

Donald Trump ' s claim that he might not accept the results of a "rigged" election — citing the media' s alleged collusion with the Clinton campaign and the fact that she was "allowed" to run despite her email controversy There isn't much Trump could do to overturn even a close, but clear-cut Clinton victory.

President Trump says that he has done more to counter Russian aggression than other recent presidents. But, officials say, Mr. Trump has gone Some veteran Russia policymakers said there was more continuity from Mr. Obama to Mr. Trump than the president’ s own public statements might

The 2020 election may test as never before one of the most enduring rules of presidential politics, the straightforward four-word maxim coined by Democratic strategist James Carville in 1992: "It's the economy, stupid."

Even amid record-low unemployment, robust economic growth and a roaring stock market, President Donald Trump has shown no signs of expanding his support beyond the roughly 46% of the vote that he carried in 2016.

National surveys now routinely find a huge falloff between the share of Americans satisfied with the economy and the percentage that approve of Trump's performance as President. And new academic research has concluded that attitudes about the economy were much less powerful in driving voters' decisions in 2016 and 2018 than their views about fundamental cultural and social changes, particularly race relations and shifting gender roles.

Trump tells anti-abortion activists to stay united for 2020

Trump tells anti-abortion activists to stay united for 2020 President Donald Trump distanced himself from Alabama's restrictive new abortion law by laying out differing personal views even as he urged anti-abortion activists to stay united heading into the 2020 election. In a series of tweets about abortion, Trump did not state whether he was for or against the Alabama law, which forbids the procedure in almost all circumstances, including cases of rape and incest. But a senior administration official said Sunday that the president is troubled by new state laws that seek to imprison doctors who perform abortions.

Trump didn’t pull off this insurgency merely through the force of his personality – he did it by innovating a new kind of politics that proved enormously popular.

Trump might . He at least offers us a chance to begin the process of achieving a restoration for ourselves. If he wins, he will have done so against a tidal wave of opposition from every commanding height— political , intellectual, cultural, fiscal, technological—in this country.

Each of these dynamics underscores how the economy's role in politics may be shifting as the basis of each party's political coalition has evolved. Increasingly, the parties are bound together less by class than by culture. As I've argued, the fundamental dividing line between the parties has become their contrasting attitudes toward the underlying demographic, cultural and economic changes remaking American society.

Democrats now rely primarily on what I've called the coalition of transformation, centered on the groups that mostly welcome these changes, particularly young people, minorities and college-educated white voters, all of them concentrated in major metropolitan areas. Republicans mobilize a competing coalition of restoration that revolves around the groups that are most uneasy about these changes: older, blue-collar, evangelical and rural whites.

ACLU, Planned Parenthood sue over Alabama abortion ban

ACLU, Planned Parenthood sue over Alabama abortion ban The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and Planned Parenthood filed a lawsuit on Friday challenging a law enacted by Alabama last week that bans nearly all abortions and makes performing the procedure a felony punishable by up to 99 years in prison. The lawsuit is one of several the groups have filed or are preparing to file against states that recently passed strict anti-abortion measures in an effort to prompt the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 landmark case that guarantees a woman's constitutional right to abortion.

Donald Trump had said he would “strongly consider” overturning the Supreme Court’ s June 2015 decision to give same-sex couples the right to marry. Overturning the Supreme Court decision would mean that spouses (and children) in same-sex families might not be eligible for federal health care or

Trump , whose foreign policy qualifications have recently been under fire, on Saturday Mr. Trump had previously questioned the need for the organization, and on Saturday he reiterated his criticism that other NATO countries were “not paying their fair share” in comparison with the United States.

Many political observers see clear evidence that attitudes toward these core questions of America's identity are overshadowing assessments of the economy in driving voters' decisions.

Brian Schaffner, a Tufts University political scientist, says a bad economy can still threaten a president and his party, as it did when the financial crash helped Barack Obama breeze to the presidency after President George W. Bush's two terms in 2008. But a good economy, he believes, may no longer be enough to dislodge the entrenched battle lines over these underlying cultural preferences.

"One thing you see in the two most recent presidencies, the Obama and Trump presidencies, is neither of them get much credit for good economies," Schaffner said in an interview. "They had different ceilings (of support), but they both had ceilings."

The trend was clear in 2018 elections

The economy's diminishing impact was apparent in the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats made their biggest inroads in white-collar suburban areas in major metropolitan areas that were almost universally succeeding economically: A CNN analysis found that the median income exceeded the national average in 35 of the 43 previously Republican-held House seats that Democrats won last November.

‘It’s entirely inappropriate’: Trump shot a political video on Air Force One

‘It’s entirely inappropriate’: Trump shot a political video on Air Force One It's out of the norm for the presidential plane to be used as a campaign backdrop, ethics experts said.

Exit polls found that Republican House candidates still carried an overwhelming share of the roughly 1 in 8 voters who described the economy as excellent last year. But among the half of 2018 voters who called the economy "good," GOP candidates eked out only a narrow 51% to 47% advantage, the exit polls found. In sharp contrast, Democrats carried almost exactly three-fourths of voters who described the economy as "good" in the 2014 midterms, while Obama held the White House.

On balance, any president, of course, would prefer to seek reelection with a stronger rather than weaker economy. Models from political scientists and academics that try to predict the outcome of presidential races typically place a heavy emphasis on measures of economic performance, such as growth in the overall domestic product or inflation-adjusted personal income. Most of those standard models now consistently identify Trump as a clear favorite for reelection.

But Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist, says the effectiveness of models that stress economic performance to predict presidential elections may be eroding. "There's a possibility here, just based on what the survey data seems to show, that the connection between perceptions of the economy and opinions about the president has gotten weaker," he said in an interview.

Trump ending fetal tissue research by federal scientists

Trump ending fetal tissue research by federal scientists The Trump administration is ending the medical research by government scientists using human fetal tissue. Officials said Wednesday government-funded research by universities will be allowed to continue, subject to additional scrutiny. 

Abramowitz's own forecast model -- which factors inflation-adjusted economic growth, incumbency and a president's approval rating -- puts Trump at about 50-50 odds for reelection. "There's a chance the economy is not going to play as big a role here," Abramowitz says.

Schaffner agrees. In a study of the 2016 election using data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, a large-scale pre- and post-election national survey, Schaffner and two co-authors found that economic satisfaction and dissatisfaction was much less important in predicting support for Trump or Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton than attitudes about race and gender relations. The more likely voters were to believe that racial discrimination is not a systemic problem and that women complaining about sexism were actually seeking unfair advantage over men, the more likely they were to support Trump. (That pattern was as powerful among women as it was among men.)

The relationship between those attitudes about fundamental cultural change -- particularly views about racism -- dwarfed assessments of the economy in predicting the vote, Schaffner said, even when accounting for the tendency of Democrats and Republicans alike to view the economy more positively when their party holds the White House.

Trump as force multiplier

In a paper published last month, Schaffner found these trends intensified in the 2018 election.

Again using Cooperative Congressional Election Study data, Schaffner found that support for Republican and Democratic House candidates in 2018 correlated even more tightly than in 2016 with attitudes about the changing roles of women. A significant minority of Republican voters in 2016 who expressed sympathy for feminism, he found, switched to support Democrats last year. His research found that attitudes on whether racism is still a systemic problem also correlated even more closely with the House vote in 2018 than they had done two years earlier.

Federal judge who blocked Trump's border wall donated $20K to Obama

Federal judge who blocked Trump's border wall donated $20K to Obama A federal judge who partially blocked President Trump’s plans to build a border wall along the United States-Mexico border previously donated almost $30,000 to former President Obama, other Democrats, and a political action committee. require(["medianetNativeAdOnArticle"], function (medianetNativeAdOnArticle) { medianetNativeAdOnArticle.getMedianetNativeAds(true); }); U.S. District Court Judge Haywood Gilliam, an Obama appointee confirmed in 2014, donated $6,900 to Barack Obama’s debut campaign for president and $14,500 to his reelection campaign, according to federal election records.

Those results partly reflect the long-term movement toward a political system that revolves more around cultural attitudes than class interests. But they also measure the extent to which Trump has thrust these questions of American identity to the forefront of political debate by identifying so unreservedly with the forces opposed to social change across a wide array of issues, from immigration to the protests of African American National Football League players to transgender rights and the appointment of socially conservative Supreme Court Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch.

Schaffner says Trump's emergence hasn't significantly changed the share of Americans who express positive or negative views about changing race relations or gender roles. Instead, Schaffner believes, Trump's impact has been to make those attitudes a more powerful force in determining which party voters identify with. Political scientists John Sides, Michael Tesler and Lynn Vavreck reached the same conclusion in their acclaimed recent book on the 2016 election, "Identity Crisis."

The reconfiguration of political allegiances around those views means that Republicans, under Trump, have been losing support from culturally liberal white-collar suburban voters who are thriving economically, even as they maintain solid advantages among socially conservative blue-collar and rural voters whose economic situation, while generally improving, remains much more tenuous overall.

Those contrasting trends have produced a striking divergence between attitudes about the economy and attitudes toward Trump.

In the most recent Quinnipiac University national survey, for instance, 76% of college-educated white voters termed the economy excellent or good. But only 36% of them said they approved of Trump's performance as President, and 59% said they definitely intended to vote against him for reelection.

Wealthy DeVos family won't back Michigan's Amash in primary

Wealthy DeVos family won't back Michigan's Amash in primary The politically powerful DeVos family said Wednesday that it is no longer financially backing a Michigan congressman who is the first Republican on Capitol Hill to accuse President Donald Trump of impeachable conduct. require(["medianetNativeAdOnArticle"], function (medianetNativeAdOnArticle) { medianetNativeAdOnArticle.getMedianetNativeAds(true); }); Nick Wasmiller, a spokesman for the family's RDV Corp., said family members have not made campaign contributions to five-term Rep. Justin Amash this political cycle and have no plans to do so.

Among younger adults, aged 18-34, 60% described the economy as excellent or good, but only 27% approved of Trump's performance and 63% said they definitely planned to vote against him in 2020. Among independents, 71% gave the economy good marks, but only 34% did the same for Trump's performance; just over half of them said they were committed to opposing him next time. Among Hispanics, two-thirds described the economy as strong, but less than a third approved of Trump's performance and almost two-thirds said they were committed to voting against him next year.

There was much less daylight between satisfaction with the economy and satisfaction with Trump among white voters without a college education, a group that has expressed more support for his cultural agenda. Among them, the falloff was much smaller between the share that said the economy was strong (77%) and the percentage that approved of his performance (55%); the share of those working-class whites who said they were committed to supporting Trump next year (46%) exceeded the share committed to opposing him (40%). The rest said they would consider voting for him.

Economy may just reinforce opinions on Trump

Quinnipiac discovered the same patterns in a recent poll in the pivotal state of Pennsylvania. Among college whites there, 81% described their personal financial situations as excellent or good and 73% said the same about the state economy. But only 35% of them said they approved of Trump's job performance, and these college whites backed former Vice President Joe Biden over him by fully 2 to 1 in a putative 2020 match-up. Non-college whites in the state were almost exactly as positive about the economy, but 56% of them approved of Trump's performance and they gave him a nearly 20-point advantage over Biden.

Polls offer conflicting signals on how much Americans credit Trump with the good economic news.

Surveys consistently find that most voters are cool to his major policy initiatives. Polls have found that most Americans opposed his efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and that only a minority of Americans believe they have personally benefited from his tax plan; in the latest Quinnipiac survey, a plurality said his trade policies were bad for the economy.

But the share of Americans who say Trump deserves credit for the buoyant economy is rising in some surveys. Even that measure, though, seems influenced by the larger divide, with Republicans and the groups favorable to the GOP far more likely to credit Trump than those skeptical of him on other grounds.

For all these reasons, the strong economy seems more likely to reinforce than to recast the patterns of reaction to Trump's tumultuous presidency.

In the predominantly white, mostly nonmetropolitan places where voters are already drawn to Trump's confrontational cultural agenda, the economy may help him harden his support: Recent research by the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution found that the counties Trump carried in 2016, most of them at the periphery of or beyond the major metropolitan areas, have added jobs at a much faster pace since he took office than they did under Obama.

But the diverse, younger, urbanized counties Clinton carried -- including almost all of the largest metropolitan areas -- are still adding jobs in larger absolute numbers than the Trump counties. And there's no indication that those gains are softening hostility to his social agenda and personal style.

"I would definitely think that who he's likely to lose (in 2020) are people who are doing fine economically but are just turned off by Kavanaugh and the immigration stuff, etc.," says Schaffner.

Abramowitz has similar expectations. "I think that where people come down on those cultural issues -- where they don't like what Trump is doing -- counts much more for them than the fact the economy is doing well," he said. "It's pretty easy to dismiss that or say that his policies are not responsible for it, that it's just a continuation of the recovery" under Obama.

In his meteoric political career, Trump has upended a succession of political rules and truisms. The next one may be views about the economy's primacy in determining the outcome of presidential elections.

That assumption was already eroding before Trump emerged, but if next year's election divides the country along the same lines that have shaped his presidency, political experts may settle on a new four-word maxim: "It's the values, stupid."

Read More

Wealthy DeVos family won't back Michigan's Amash in primary.
The politically powerful DeVos family said Wednesday that it is no longer financially backing a Michigan congressman who is the first Republican on Capitol Hill to accuse President Donald Trump of impeachable conduct. require(["medianetNativeAdOnArticle"], function (medianetNativeAdOnArticle) { medianetNativeAdOnArticle.getMedianetNativeAds(true); }); Nick Wasmiller, a spokesman for the family's RDV Corp., said family members have not made campaign contributions to five-term Rep. Justin Amash this political cycle and have no plans to do so.

—   Share news in the SOC. Networks

Topical videos:

usr: 1
This is interesting!