Opinion: North Carolina race raises 2020 red flags for Republicans, Democrats - PressFrom - US

OpinionNorth Carolina race raises 2020 red flags for Republicans, Democrats

19:31  11 september  2019
19:31  11 september  2019 Source:   thehill.com

'Test drive': Democrats hope to flip last undecided House race of 2018, and use it as a template for 2020

'Test drive': Democrats hope to flip last undecided House race of 2018, and use it as a template for 2020 A close race to fill North Carolina’s 9th District U.S. House seat may offer a preview of the 2020 election when Democrats in swing districts will try to distance themselves from their party’s leftward swing. © Provided by MediaDC: Washington Newspaper Publishing Company, Inc. Dan McCready, Democratic candidate for North Carolina's 9th District Dan McCready, a Democrat, is vying to flip a seat long held by Republicans when he faces off against state Sen. Dan Bishop in a Sept. 10 special election. require(["medianetNativeAdOnArticle"], function (medianetNativeAdOnArticle) { medianetNativeAdOnArticle.

Both Democrats and Republicans have poured millions of dollars into the race . The special election was called after the Republican candidate in the Mr. Trump carried North Carolina by less than four points in 2016. “If North Carolina suburbs are transitioning from a solid Republican base to a more

CHARLOTTE, N . C . — Voters in a Republican -leaning North Carolina congressional district will choose a new representative on Tuesday in a special election that will test President Trump’s clout ahead of 2020 and Democrats ’ ability to make inroads with the sort of suburban voters who propelled

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North Carolina race raises 2020 red flags for Republicans, Democrats© Getty Images North Carolina race raises 2020 red flags for Republicans, Democrats

Both parties have waited eagerly for the outcome of Tuesday's odd special election in North Carolina's ninth congressional district. The contest was necessitated by the state's board of elections when it nullified Republican Mark Harris's 905-vote "win" over Democrat Dan McCready early this year. The decision was based upon evidence that a GOP-allied operative, McCrae Dowless, had illegally harvested absentee ballots from a number of the district's rural voters. This was the first time since 1974 that the country witnessed a "do-over" congressional race.

Trump, with eye on 2020, seeks to bolster North Carolina Republican

Trump, with eye on 2020, seeks to bolster North Carolina Republican U.S. President Donald Trump is going all-out to try to keep a district of North Carolina in the Republican column in a special congressional election on Tuesday that may serve as a bellwether for his own fortunes in 2020. © Reuters/Bryan Woolston FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump greets supports as he arrives at a campaign rally in Cincinnati Trump heads to Fayetteville, a city in North Carolina's 9th district, on Monday to rally voters on the eve of the vote, a repeat of a 2018 congressional election that was tainted by fraud.

" North Carolinians rejected the Democrats ’ socialist agenda and elected a representative who will North Carolina 9th district Republican congressional candidate Dan Bishop greets supporters in Had McCready prevailed, it might have suggested GOP erosion and raised questions about Trump's

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Many political analysts feel the contest is a harbinger of the 2020 elections - even though it was formally a culminating skirmish to the 2018 midterms. The victory of Republican state Sen. Dan Bishop, who replaced Harris when the latter's candidacy became untenable with the discovery of its connections to Dowless, has been met with sighs of relief from House Republicans and the Trump administration.

The Ninth is prime Trump territory, a microcosm of the affluent suburbs and rural working-class areas that he needs to win by large numbers nationwide. It stretches from Bishop's home in the country-club suburbs of southeastern Charlotte eastward to Dowless's hardscrabble Bladen County and, slightly north of there, to the city of Fayetteville, home of the Army's Fort Bragg and a place steeped in military tradition.

North Carolina special election: Democrats have a chance in a heavily Trump district

North Carolina special election: Democrats have a chance in a heavily Trump district The seemingly never-ending election to represent North Carolina's 9th Congressional District will (probably) come to a close on Tuesday. © Getty Images/AP Democrat Dan McCready and Republican Dan Bishop For those who don't recall, credible allegations of ballot fraud caused the State Board of Elections to order a new election in the district after the final tally found Republican Mark Harris ahead of Democrat Dan McCready by fewer than 1,000 votes. Harris decided not to run again in the special election. Instead, McCready will face off against Republican Dan Bishop.

North Carolina 's special House election do-over could be an early indicator for 2020 . Some analysts see the 9th District race as the first election of the 2020 cycle and a possible bellwether of what The contest between Democrat Dan McCready and Republican Dan Bishop appears tight even in an

The state board, comprising three Democrats and two Republicans , has the power to determine whether “We didn’t mail more than nine or 10 at a time because we didn’t want that to throw up a red flag Dallas Woodhouse, the executive director of the North Carolina Republican Party, tweeted

Along the way it passes through Union County, a white middle-class booming exurb that is about the most Republican kind of place you could imagine in the South. Home of former Sen. Jesse Helms, no GOP statewide candidate got less than 63 percent of the vote there in 2016. Trump won the district by twelve percentage points.

A plurality of the district's voters are registered Democrats, but McCready recognized its true politics. A former Marine, he campaigned as a pragmatist and problem-solver, interested in "kitchen-table" issues and ignoring the liberal agenda pushed by most of his party's presidential candidates and many in the House Democratic freshman class. He also avoided much of Bishop's legislative record in the state senate, including the infamous "bathroom bill" that was universally decried on the left as an attack on the rights of transgender individuals. He kept his head down and continued to work through what ended up being an interminably long campaign.

N Carolina special election tests Trump, 2020 GOP prospects

N Carolina special election tests Trump, 2020 GOP prospects Republicans are hoping an eleventh-hour pep talk from President Donald Trump will help them win Tuesday's special congressional election in North Carolina. The race could shed light on Republicans' chances of retaking the U.S. House and Trump's reelection prospects in 2020. At a rally in Fayetteville on Monday night, Trump campaigned for conservative state Sen. Dan Bishop. Opposing Bishop is moderate Democrat Dan McCready, a former Marine who narrowly trailed in an election for the seat last year that was invalidated after evidence of election fraud surfaced.

The 2020 election in North Carolina will make that look like nothing. Here are the main contenders. North Carolina will be a swing state in President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign and the site With the Republican supermajority in the General Assembly broken, the Executive Mansion takes on

" North Carolina 's 9th District is such an interesting race , because this is our first test of suburban voters after the midterms," said Leah Askarinam He’s also a proven fundraiser, having raised .7 million for his 2018 race . This year, McCready continues to widen the fundraising gap between him

The state and national Democrats saw an opportunity and invested heavily. Of the nearly $18 million plowed into the race by campaign donors and outside groups, McCready benefitted from about half - he enjoyed an approximately $5 million-to-$2 million lead in direct contributions that Bishop offset by a roughly $7 million-to-$4 million advantage in outside spending. All the usual Washington suspects ran ads.

Trump helped make the race a referendum on his party and himself. He has called North Carolina a "top-tier priority" in next year's election, and the Republican National Convention will be held in Charlotte in August. One of his last-minute stops during the 2018 campaign was to the district for a Harris event. Hurricane Dorian became a focus of his administration last week.

In the end the district was not directly affected by the storm, but North Carolinians are acutely aware of their danger and the importance of government response when they hit. Vice President Mike Pence visited the Charlotte area on Monday and Trump went to Fayetteville for a typically energetic election-eve rally. Bishop and supporters repeatedly linked McCready to the leftist policy ambitions of the "Squad," not least by way of the candidate's renewable energy company and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Green New Deal.

The Latest: GOP claims voter confusion in special election

The Latest: GOP claims voter confusion in special election North Carolina Republicans claim election officials in one county provided the wrong address for a voting precinct ahead of a hotly contested special congressional election. But state election officials say voters were notified of the address change weeks ago. 

Put HEAT on ALL Republicans and say NO to Red Flag laws and Assault Weapons ban! Republican State Senator Dan Bishop has been declared by multiple media outlets to be the winner of North Carolina ’s 9th Congressional district race against Democrat Dan McCready.

Red flags had been raised regarding irregular and potentially compromised absentee ballots North Carolina 's governor, Democrat Roy Cooper, wrote in a statement, "I thank the Board for Republican candidate calls for new election. Harris' call on Thursday was a dramatic reversal from his previous

It's unclear whether Trump helped Bishop much. Any analysis about the relative turnout of the parties' bases is difficult because of the unusual circumstances. Worryingly for Democrats, McCready's vote in rural areas dipped a bit from 2016. Following the Trump-Pence visits, Bishop won the election-day vote by over 11,000, but that was not too surprising since in North Carolina Democrats dominate "early" with absentee voting, while Republicans tend to wait and cast their votes in the conventional way.

More worryingly for the GOP, there was a swing of ten percentage points away from Trump, who won the district by 12 points in 2016. The Republican candidate - admittedly an incumbent - won the district by 16 points that year. Bishop did not quite win 60 percent of the Union County vote. Swings of this magnitude suggest North Carolina is looking purple.

If Trump win the Tar Heel state next year, he'll probably be at about 225 electoral votes - Florida and much of the Rust Belt seem gone. There is also no immediate path to the majority for House Republicans. Meanwhile, Thom Tillis's North Carolina Senate seat will likely become competitive. The GOP majority in the lower body of the General Assembly might also be endangered. State legislatures will be drawing new district maps after the next election.

Much will depend on whom Democrats nominate. With its large and but quite conservative African-American population, military heritage, and cultural traditionalism, cosmopolitan liberals like, say, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris will find the terrain more challenging than a candidate in the mold of former Vice President Joe Biden. Regardless, the result of this most special of special elections is food for thought as we accelerate into the 2020 campaign.

Andrew J. Taylor is professor of political science and director of the Free and Open Societies Project in the School of Public and International Affairs at North Carolina State University. Among his books are "The Floor in Congressional Life" and "Congress: A Performance Appraisal".

The Latest: Pelosi swears in 2 North Carolina congressmen.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has sworn in two Republicans who won special elections in North Carolina last week. 

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