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Opinion Trump's re-election chances may be better than you think

18:20  14 january  2020
18:20  14 january  2020 Source:   msn.com

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What are Donald Trump ’ s chances for re - election in 2020? If history is any guide, pretty good . What is the significance of these rebound stories for Trump , who had a better first midterm result than either Clinton or Obama and similarly low approval ratings?

What are Donald Trump ' s chances for re - election in 2020? If history is any guide, pretty good . In early 1994, Bill Clinton's approval rating after two What is the significance of these rebound stories for Trump , who had a better first midterm result than either Clinton or Obama and similarly low approval

Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

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What are Donald Trump's chances for re-election in 2020?

If history is any guide, pretty good.

In early 1994, Bill Clinton's approval rating after two years in office hovered around a dismal 40 percent. The first midterm elections of the Clinton presidency were an utter disaster.

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What are Donald Trump ' s chances for re - election in 2020? If history is any guide, pretty good . In early 1994, Bill Clinton's approval rating after two What is the significance of these rebound stories for Trump , who had a better first midterm result than either Clinton or Obama and similarly low approval

What are Donald Trump ’ s chances for re - election in 2020? If history is any guide, pretty good . In early 1994, Bill Clinton’s approval rating after two years in office hovered around a dismal 40 percent. The first midterm elections of the Clinton presidency were an utter disaster. A new generation of

A new generation of younger, more conservative Republicans led by firebrand Newt Gingrich and his "Contract with America" gave Republicans a majority in the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years. Republicans also picked up eight Senate seats in 1994 to take majority control of both houses of Congress.

It was no wonder that Republicans thought the 1996 presidential election would be a Republican shoo-in. But Republicans nominated 73-year-old Senate leader Bob Dole, a sober but otherwise uninspired Washington fixture.

By September of 1996, "comeback kid" Clinton had a Gallup approval rating of 60 percent. Dole was crushed in an Electoral College landslide.

Barack Obama was given a similarly dismal prognosis after the 2010 midterms, when Democrats lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats. Republicans regained majority control of the House, though Democrats clung to a narrow majority in the Senate. At the time, Obama had an approval rating in the mid-40s.

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What are Donald Trump ' s chances for re - election in 2020? If history is any guide, pretty good . In early 1994, Bill Clinton's approval rating after two What is the significance of these rebound stories for Trump , who had a better first midterm result than either Clinton or Obama and similarly low approval

What are Donald Trump ’ s chances for reelection in 2020? The first midterm elections of the Clinton presidency were an utter disaster. A new generation of younger, more conservative Republicans led by firebrand Newt Gingrich and his “Contract with America” gave Republicans a majority in the House of.

Republicans once again figured Obama would be a one-term president. Yet they nominated a Dole-like candidate in the 2012 election. Republican nominee Mitt Romney had little appeal to Republicans' conservative base and was easily caricatured by the left as an out-of-touch elite.

By late 2012, Obama's approval rating was consistently at or above 50 percent, and he wound up easily beating Romney.

What is the significance of these rebound stories for Trump, who had a better first midterm result than either Clinton or Obama and similarly low approval ratings?

People, not polls, elect presidents.

Presidents run for re-election against real opponents, not public perceptions. For all the media hype, voters often pick the lesser of two evils, not their ideals of a perfect candidate.

We have no idea what the economy or the world abroad will be like in 2020. And no one knows what the country will think of the newly Democrat-controlled Congress in two years.

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W hat are Donald Trump ’ s chances for reelection in 2020? The first midterm elections of the Clinton presidency were an utter disaster. A new generation of What is the significance of these rebound stories for Trump , who had a better first midterm result than either Clinton or Obama and

There are two major theories about President Trump ’ s standing heading into his re - election campaign. One theory holds that Mr. Trump is fundamentally like any other president. This would be good news for his chances in 2020: Many presidents have gone on to win after having approval

The public has been hearing a lot from radical new House representatives such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.). Their pledges to deliver "Medicare for All," to phase out fossil fuels and to abolish the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Service are occasionally delivered with snark. Tlaib recently used profanity to punctuate her desire to see Trump impeached.

But much of the public supports Trump's agenda of deregulation, increased oil and gas production, getting tough with China on trade, and stopping illegal immigration.

What if the Democrats impeach Trump, even knowing that a Republican Senate would never convict him?

When Republicans did that to Bill Clinton, his approval rating went up. Some Republican senators even joined the Democrats in the effort to acquit Clinton. As a reward for the drawn-out drama around the impeachment, Republicans lost seats in both the 1998 and 2000 House elections.

We still don't have any idea whom the Democrats will nominate to run against Trump. Will they go the 1996 or 2012 Republican route with a predictable has-been such as Joe Biden, who will turn 78 shortly after the 2020 election?

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Donald Trump is up for re - election in one year from now, with Democrats set to Mr Trump , the US president, may be way behind possible Democrat candidates in polls of the whole of The numbers, which are much better for Mr Trump than in nation-wide surveys, suggests that in the places that will

I think Trump ' s chances are better than most people think but I also really do not think he will be re elected this time. I do think it will be another republican because of the aforementioned. Crystal ball time!

Well-known candidates from the Senate such as Walter Mondale in 1984, Dole in 1996, John Kerry in 2004, John McCain in 2008 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 have a poor recent track record in recent presidential elections. They are usually nominated only by process of elimination and the calling in of political chits rather than due to grassroots zeal.

Democrats can continue their hard-left drift and nominate socialist Bernie Sanders, or they can try again to elect the first female president, either Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren, both of whom represent the far left.

But going to extremes did not work well in 1972, when leftist Democratic Sen. George McGovern was crushed by incumbent Richard Nixon. The Republicans learned that lesson earlier when they nominated Sen. Barry Goldwater in 1964 and were wiped out.

Whether or not they like Trump, millions of voters still think the president is all that stands between them and socialism, radical cultural transformation and social chaos.

Many would prefer Trump's sometimes-over-the-top tweets and hard bark to the circus they saw at the Brett Kavanaugh nomination hearings, the rantings of Ocasio-Cortez, or the endless attempts to remove Trump from office.

What usually ensure one-term presidencies are unpopular wars (Lyndon Johnson) or tough economic times (Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush).

Trump allies draw up plan to limit damage from impeachment trial

  Trump allies draw up plan to limit damage from impeachment trial President Donald Trump and his Republican allies plan to launch a massive effort to limit damage to his chances of re-election. WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump and his Republican allies plan to launch a massive effort to limit damage to his chances of re-election as the Senate trial to determine whether to remove him from office gets under way in earnest next week.

Mr. Trump ’ s success in places like Dubuque — heavily white, working class, union-friendly and Catholic — remade the Republican electorate. And his path to a second term depends heavily on whether those voters turn their backs on the Democratic Party again. But the specter of a new conflict in the Middle

We look at how a campaign rooted in racial polarization could affect President Trump ’ s chances of winning in 2020. But despite that, the president is better positioned to win re - election than the national polls suggest, because he is stronger in critical battleground states than he is nationwide.

If Trump avoids both, perhaps a majority of voters will see him as political chemotherapy -- occasionally nausea-inducing but still necessary and largely effective -- to stop a toxic and metastasizing political cancer.

(Editor's note: Last week's Victor Davis Hanson column stated that there are an estimated 11 million to 13 million Mexican citizens living in the United States illegally. The latest estimate from the Pew Research Center put that number at 10.7 million in 2016, and Mexican citizens comprise a little more than half of that total. Hanson, however, cites a more recent 2018 Yale-MIT study that estimated a much larger pool of 22 million foreign nationals living illegally in the United States, or about 12 million Mexican citizens.)

(Victor Davis Hanson is a classicist and historian at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and the author of the soon-to-be released "The Second World Wars: How the First Global Conflict Was Fought and Won," to appear in October from Basic Books. You can reach him by e-mailing authorvdh@gmail.com.)

Kellyanne Conway knocks Biden, talks up Sanders in Wash Post op-ed .
Presidential counselor and 2016 Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway knocked former Vice President Joe Biden in a Washington Post op-ed on Thursday while touting Sen. Sanders's (I-Vt.) prospects in the Democratic presidential race.Conway argued in the op-ed that Democratic "leaders and primary voters have been seduced into the trap of focusing on electability," while seeking to make the argument that Democrats should turn to support Sanders if concerned about electability. require(["medianetNativeAdOnArticle"], function (medianetNativeAdOnArticle) { medianetNativeAdOnArticle.

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