Opinion A coronavirus recession would likely end Trump's presidency

23:05  28 february  2020
23:05  28 february  2020 Source:   theweek.com

Coronavirus Live Updates: Cases Rise in Italy and Iran, and Spread to Other Countries

  Coronavirus Live Updates: Cases Rise in Italy and Iran, and Spread to Other Countries New cases of the coronavirus popping up across Europe. Dozens of infections in Iran stoking fears about an uncontrolled spread in the Middle East. Global market jitters continuing after a steep slide. American health authorities warning that it was a matter of when, not if, the epidemic would reach the United States. A toxic political climate in Washington complicating the public health challenge. That worrying drumbeat frayed nerves across the world on Wednesday even as the pace of the outbreak seemed to be slowing in China.

Donald Trump discussed the Coronavirus at a Black History Month eventShawn Thew/EPA. Donald Trump is struggling to prevent a total market meltdown that likely would trigger an election-year Yet, it is Mr Trump who has opted to make his presidency one never- ending insult-laden, victim-paying

The coronavirus is not only a pandemic, it’ s also now a political tool for Republicans and Democrats to lob across the aisle at each other. California Congressman Garamendi perhaps went further than any politician has so far when he spoke about the disease and the political response to it in the US while

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a person standing on a stage: President Trump. © Illustrated | Kevin Frayer/Getty Images, Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images, Aerial3/iStock President Trump.

The global coronavirus outbreak might accomplish something that myriad bad polls haven't: make Republicans fear losing the 2020 presidential election.

Until now, survey after survey has consistently shown President Trump losing to the Democrats in November. Like, to all of the Democrats. Yet Republicans have remained confident. They remember how the #FakePolls showed Trump losing to Hillary Clinton four years ago. More importantly, perhaps, GOPers have a deep faith that the strong economy will provide a powerful tailwind to Trump's re-election campaign.

Trump rails against Dems 'wasting time' amid coronavirus threat

  Trump rails against Dems 'wasting time' amid coronavirus threat As his administration is working to organize its response to the coronavirus threat in the United States, President Trump slammed Democrats.A series of late-night tweets marked the latest exchange between the White House and congressional Democrats over the outbreak, with each side simultaneously urging the other not to politicize the potential crisis yet also taking shots at press conferences and on social media — complicating efforts to work together.

Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow may have brushed off the need for stimulus, saying the outbreak isn't likely to become an "economic tragedy." But when it comes to COVID-19, moving now with an aggressive emergency-style stimulus is the best way to ensure that prediction actually comes true.

How Could a Trump Presidency Go Wrong? Trump Praises Xi for Handling of Coronavirus Outbreak as Death Toll Passes 600. Talkin’ Speech. When Trump ’ s detractors point out that Trump has swiveled on every major campaign promise, every major issue, Trump supporters accuse them of

But the plunging stock market, badly spooked by the unpredictable spread and impact of the virus, is suggesting the tailwind might turn into a headwind — and that could mean a one-term Trump presidency. Wall Street banks are already cutting their economic growth forecasts for the first half of the year. Beyond that, they're not so sure, an uncertainty reflected in wildly gyrating markets. Economic predictions about consumer demand and supply-chain disruptions are now also pandemic predictions. JPMorgan just trimmed its second-quarter projection for U.S. GDP growth by a quarter percent to 1.75 percent, but in a report to clients added that "extensive domestic 'community spreading' would prompt a larger downward revision."

Coronavirus in Iran prompts US to extend olive branch amid claim country's death toll far higher than reported

  Coronavirus in Iran prompts US to extend olive branch amid claim country's death toll far higher than reported More than 200 people in Iran – a figure six times higher than officials are stating – have reportedly been killed by the coronavirus, prompting the U.S State Department on Friday to extend an olive branch to assist the embattled country.China has been battling an outbreak of a new SARS-like coronavirus (COVID-19), which originated in Wuhan. The virus has claimed over 2,700 lives and infected nearly 80,000 people around the world.

The source of Trump ’ s uncharacteristic reluctance to talk up a border-crossing menace to American public safety isn’t hard to discern. And there’s reason to fear a global recession could be one symptom of a coronavirus pandemic (as recent market developments have indicated).

This brings the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Spain to 7. Before that, a German tourist and a British man tested positive for the virus on the Canary Islands and in Mallorca, respectively, but both have since been discharged from hospital.

Economic forecasts are always tricky business. Now, in addition to the usual mix of jobs numbers, consumer surveys, and corporate earnings reports, economists have to factor the spread of a virus whose transmissibility and lethality remains unclear. Economic consultancy Capital Economics concedes "there is no way our models can incorporate the risk of a widespread coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. which, just like it appears to have done in China, would almost inevitably cause a recession." As it is, Moody's Analytics predicts a 40 percent chance that the virus will grow into a global pandemic that would indeed push the United States and the rest of the global economy into a recession.

An election-year downturn is bad for any incumbent presidential party. There have been three presidential elections since 1960 where the election year saw a recession. The incumbent party lost all of them. One of political historian Allan Lichtman's famous "13 Keys to the White House" is that the U.S. economy is not in recession during the election campaign. But a downturn would be especially damaging for Trump, who has made a de facto bargain with voters: I may tweet lots of crazy stuff and engage in lots of dodgy behavior, but I won't screw up this long economic expansion. Hell, I may even do some things that help it, like tax cuts and deregulation. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll last month, 56 percent of respondents said they approved of the way Trump had approached economic issues. That mood would change dramatically with a recession even if voters don't directly blame Trump's handling of the virus outbreak for it, though they might. Trump's rambling press conference earlier this week was no confidence builder and may be playing a role in Wall Street's swoon.

Trump Accuses Media and Democrats of Exaggerating Coronavirus Threat

  Trump Accuses Media and Democrats of Exaggerating Coronavirus Threat WASHINGTON — President Trump and members of his administration mobilized on Friday to confront the threat of the coronavirus — not just the outbreak, but the news media and the Democrats they accused of exaggerating its danger. While stock markets tumbled, companies searched for new supply chains and health officials scrambled to prevent a spread of the virus, Mr. Trump and his aides, congressional allies and backers in the conservative media sought to blame the messenger and the political opposition in the latest polarizing moment in the nation’s capital.Mr.

Trump has “predicted” a lot of things and his Jewish Zio buddies are making sure that all his predictions come true as they are prepping him up to be the father of the moshiach Coronavirus outbreak will probably end by April or summer when the heat comes, but not because Trump is a real prophet.

Mr Trump became only the third president in US history to be impeached after two votes in the Democratic Party-controlled House of Representatives - but more on what that means below. President Trump , who is a Republican, strongly denies any wrongdoing. What is he accused of doing wrong?

Of course, the Trump White House remains bullish. On Monday, Trump tweeted, "Stock Market starting to look very good to me!" And that's been the consistent message coming from him and his advisers. Friday, National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow told reporters, "Our threat assessment is low and the economy is fundamentally sound."

But here's what should really unnerve Republicans: Avoiding an outright recession may not be good enough to save the Trump presidency. Some election analysts blame Al Gore's loss to George W. Bush in 2000 to a mild economic slowdown during the year. Even though economic growth overall was a sizzling 4.1 percent — the fourth consecutive year of 4 percent real GDP growth or higher — growth slipped to just 0.5 percent in the third quarter and 2.5 percent in the fourth. As one analysis put it, "Our best guess, however, is that the slowdown was a major factor in Gore's defeat… the long economic boom that arrived just a little too late to get George Bush re-elected in 1992 seems to have ended just in time to elect his son."

U.S. Plans ‘Radical Expansion’ of Coronavirus Testing

  U.S. Plans ‘Radical Expansion’ of Coronavirus Testing After weeks of stalled testing for the coronavirus, the United States now has enough diagnostic kits to test 75,000 people, with more on the way, Alex M. Azar II, the health and human services secretary, said on Sunday. The Trump administration has faced widespread criticism for a slow and scattered delivery of testing materials to states, where only 12 labs are capable of diagnosing the virus. Mr. Azar’s announcement, on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” came a day after the Food and Drug Administration announced that it was giving laboratories and hospitals across the country the go-ahead to conduct tests that had been severely limited to those analyzed by the Centers for Disease Co

The falling stock market might also be more than just a harbinger of slower economic growth. It could be a cause of that slower growth. In a 2014 paper, UCLA economist Roger Farmer suggested that the sharp fall in the stock market in the autumn of 2008 provides "a plausible causal explanation for the magnitude of the Great Recession." (Farmer thinks the Federal Reserve should be able to buy stocks to support the economy.) Barclays bank thinks there is a similar type of risk today, saying in a research note, "The rapidity of the deterioration in financial markets has elements of a viral pandemic induced panic that, if left unchecked, could spread to business and consumer confidence that could ultimately lead to reductions in spending and hiring." Moreover, with the value of financial assets at record levels versus the size of the economy, the health of Wall Street and Main Street are as closely linked to each other as they have ever been. And to the Trump presidency, as well.

Expect Trump to push the Fed to cut interest rates ASAP and maybe Congress to supply fiscal stimulus. Also expect more efforts by Team Trump to talk up the market.

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Coronavirus anxiety is everywhere, and there is no cure .
Symptoms include holding your breath on the subway, panic-shopping for surgical masks and doing everything with your elbows.World has been battling an outbreak of a new SARS-like coronavirus (COVID-19), which originated in Wuhan, China. The virus has claimed over 2,700 lives and infected nearly 87,000 people around the world.

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