Opinion Trump Is Running Out of Time to Change These 8 Election X-Factors

03:05  20 october  2020
03:05  20 october  2020 Source:   nymag.com

RNC 2020 Day 4: Trump accepts nomination from White House

  RNC 2020 Day 4: Trump accepts nomination from White House The Republican National Convention concluded Thursday under the theme "Land of Greatness" with President Trump formally accepting the GOP nomination from the White House. A fireworks display lit up the sky above the Washington Monument at the conclusion of his remarks.

Because of coronavirus-related changes in election administration across the country, more Americans than ever are expected to cast their ballots early this year, whether by mail or in person. Two long- time battleground states, Colorado and Virginia, are almost entirely off the board for Trump .

Trump has banked on that support to endure through trade wars that his administration fought with Democratic challenger Joe Biden and his running mate, U.S. Senator Kamala Harris, have seized on the Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily

Back in August, which was about three decades ago in Trump Years, I wrote a piece evaluating X-factors that might break in the president’s direction using Donald Rumsfeld’s famous (and useful) distinction between known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. The point was to try to figure out how and when Trump might catch up with Biden’s incredibly steady national polling lead as Election Day approached.

Day by day, Trump’s odds of victory are dropping. Megan Paetzhold. Photos: Getty Images © Megan Paetzhold. Photos: Getty Images Day by day, Trump’s odds of victory are dropping. Megan Paetzhold. Photos: Getty Images

Now, just 15 days from November 3, these questions remain the key pieces of a potential close race. But unless Trump manages to transform his behavior — or develops an actual way to slow down time, not just the feeling of it — the president is running out of opportunities to turn the election around. Below are the variables I rounded up in August that would need to break in his favor, most of which are currently looking like positives for his opponent’s campaign.

Fact check: Biden voted to tax Social Security, wants to reform retirement benefits

  Fact check: Biden voted to tax Social Security, wants to reform retirement benefits As a senator, Joe Biden voted to tax Social Security benefits. As a presidential hopeful, he does not propose taxing property or retirement accounts.The former senator from Delaware was also the deciding vote in raising the Social Security tax rate to up to 85% in 1993, according to the meme.

“People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots.” Trump added that Fauci, who has led the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984 Congress is running out of time to pass another coronavirus relief bill before the election , much to the chagrin of the president, who has

With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states. In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is

Is the presidential race just naturally tightening up?

A lot of observers figured that might happen based on past presidential elections. So far it hasn’t — at all. In the FiveThirtyEight polling averages, Biden’s lead since August 13 has increased from 8.1 percent to 10.7 percent. At RealClearPolitics (which unlike FiveThirtyEight, doesn’t weight results for pollster quality or adjust for partisan bias), Biden’s lead has grown more modestly, from 7.7 percent to 8.9 percent. But nobody is showing a tightening national race. If it was going to happen naturally (as opposed to being forced by some campaign activity or external event), it would probably be evident by now.

Does Trump still have an electoral college advantage?

The easiest way to measure the electoral college “tilt” is to compare national polling margins to those in the top “tipping-point state,” the one most likely to get either candidate over the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory. Currently FiveThirtyEight figures Pennsylvania as the crucial “tipping point state,” where Biden’s lead in the polling averages is 6.7 percent, a full four points lower than his national lead. If you are focused on other battleground states, be aware that Biden’s lead (again, in FiveThirtyEight’s averages) is at 1.3 percent in Georgia, 3.2 percent in North Carolina, 3.8 percent in Arizona, 3.9 percent in Florida, 6.3 percent in Nevada, 7.3 percent in Wisconsin, 7.9 percent in Michigan and 9.1 percent in Minnesota. He’s up in the vast majority of competitive states, but you have to get to relatively blue states like Colorado (13.2 percent) and Virginia (13.3) before Biden’s state polling lead exceeds his national lead.

Fact-checking Trump's massively dishonest weekend: The President made at least 66 separate false or misleading claims in three days

  Fact-checking Trump's massively dishonest weekend: The President made at least 66 separate false or misleading claims in three days President Donald Trump's dishonesty is getting worse. © Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images US President Donald Trump gestures during a rally at Southern Wisconsin Regional Airport in Janesville, Wisconsin on October 17, 2020. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN / AFP) (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images) Trump has been reliably deceptive for his entire presidency, filling his speeches and tweets with lies and other false statements.

"You know that ." Mr Trump also said he believed the election result could end up in the US Supreme Court, as he again cast doubt on postal voting. If Mr Trump were to refuse to accept the result of the election , it would take the US into uncharted territory and it is not clear how it would play out .

Donald Trump made voters a number of promises before they elected him. Before election : Trump promised to lower the corporate tax rate and bring in huge tax cuts for working Americans. Mr Gorsuch's appointment required a procedural change to Senate rules, but it was Mr Kavanaugh's

So in other words, yes, Trump has an electoral college advantage that looks a lot like the one he had in 2016 (and actually could be bigger), when he lost the national popular vote by 2.1 percent. But it will only matter if the national race does get significantly closer. Right now according to FiveThirtyEight’s models, Biden has a significantly higher odds of winning Texas (32 percent) than Trump has of winning Pennsylvania (12 percent).

Is the undecided vote or support for minor parties surging?

Trump needs a pool from which to draw the votes he needs to close the gap with Biden, and given this year’s intense polarization, the odds of “flipping” current Biden supporters is very low. In 2016 there was a rich lode of both undecided voters and those expressing support for minor parties (which lowered the percentage Trump needed to eke out a win). Neither of these factors is re-emerging this year. According to Reuters-Ipsos data, the percentage of likely voters who haven’t chosen one of the two major-party candidates has been cut in half since 2016 (eight percent now and 16 percent then). Another indicator of the segment of the electorate that may be closed to Trump is that Biden’s national support is now consistently topping 50 percent. In 2016 Hillary Clinton never topped 50 percent in daily polling averages at RealClearPolitics after March, and then did just once dating back to August of 2015.

Debate transcript: Trump, Biden final presidential debate moderated by Kristen Welker

  Debate transcript: Trump, Biden final presidential debate moderated by Kristen Welker Here is the full transcript of the final presidential debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, moderated by Kristen Welker in Nashville on Oct. 22, 2020. Headers have been added for ease of reading. © Mario Tama, Getty Images People are pictured watching the final debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden at The Abbey in West Hollywood, California. [0:00] Welker: A very good evening to both of you. This debate will cover six major topics.

This rule may be applied to other single word declarative and/or sensational expressions, such as Just gotta make them public at the right time so people remember come election day. I agree that Trump 's refusal to release taxes have been a longstanding issue, but I think it's a little silly to say that

Trump 's campaign accused the debate commission of helping Joe Biden avoid having to answer questions It's been like for election cycle after election cycle. The debate commission is now trying to It's unclear what changes could be made but, in the first debate, Trump was criticized for his

Is early voting ‘baking in’ a Biden lead?

As a lot of observers are quite properly warning us, it’s dangerous to read too much into heavy early voting and/or the big Democratic advantage we are seeing in early voting data. Often early voters are the same as those who might have otherwise voted on Election Day, and this year a Democratic skew was guaranteed by Trump’s incessant ranting against voting by mail.

But it’s also true that the early voting population is making its choice at a time when Biden has been steadily leading, which reduces the number of votes available to reflect some late Trump surge. So to that limited extent, it “bakes in” the recent and current Biden lead.

In August, I mentioned three “known unknowns” affecting the remainder of the presidential race: COVID-19, the economy, and the presidential debates. A lot of that water is now under the bridge, too:

Is it too late for Trump to repair his poor numbers on managing COVID-19?

The answer to this question is almost certainly “yes.” According to RCP averages, Trump’s COVID-19 job approval rating has been underwater since early April, and his net negative rating in this area has been in double digits since mid-May. And at present the trajectory of the pandemic is becoming more pessimistic every day, even as hope for an available vaccine recedes into the future.

Trump casts a 'very secure vote' for himself in Florida: 2020 election updates

  Trump casts a 'very secure vote' for himself in Florida: 2020 election updates "I voted for a guy named Trump," the president said.Trump cast his ballot at the West Palm Beach library near his private Mar-a-Lago club. The president told reporters after leaving the library it was "an honor" to be voting and that he cast a "very secure vote.

Mr Trump later said he would probably take another Covid test on Friday and hoped to hold a rally over the weekend. Critics have accused the White House of avoiding questions about Mr Trump 's health and testing in recent days. A White House spokeswoman said the president wanted to return to the

This rule may be applied to other single word declarative and/or sensational expressions, such as There's also the fact that once he's out of office the DOJ will presumably stop functioning as his I don’t know they might have been feeding trump disinformation the whole time to see if he really was

The last chance Trump had to change his image of ineptitude in handling COVID-19 was immediately after his own positive diagnosis, and instead of changing course or admitting error he chose to make his quick recovery (if that is what it was) a sign of bully-boy masculine indomitability, which won’t win him any plaudits or votes outside the MAGA base.

Will the ‘Trump economy’ save Trump?

Clearly Trump is still getting credit (far more than he deserves, in my opinion) for how well the economy was doing before the pandemic hit, but the lift he gets from that perspective on his performance is probably over for the time being. We’ve already seen the final pre-election monthly Jobs Report, which got meh reviews. And as with (and because of) new fears about a COVID-19 resurgence, the road ahead doesn’t look promising.

Perhaps a last-second stimulus deal with Nancy Pelosi could make the stock market and some voters feel better about the immediate future, but even if that happens the relief would not actually be received until well after the election, and Republican grumbling about excessive generosity (and Pelosi out-maneuvering the administration) might offset much of the limited enthusiasm it would engender. There’s not much sign an economic game-changer is in the works.

The week in polls: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them

  The week in polls: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them With just eight days to go to Election Day, both national polls and swing state surveys make it clear the race between Trump and Biden is tightening.President Donald Trump gained on his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in national polling averages, and in nine of 12 contested states. But Biden still holds a sizable lead in the national polls and is still ahead of Trump in 10 of the 12 states that could decide the election.

Could the final debate change everything?

History tells us presidential debates (even in less polarized times) do not change a lot of votes, barring some large gaffe. Yes, they can galvanize judgments swing voters have already made (e.g., JFK looking more inspiring than Nixon, or Reagan asking 1980 voters if “they are better off”), which this year would be very bad for the incumbent whose job approval rating perpetually remains underwater.

The more pertinent question is whether Trump is capable of a debate “win” this year. He sure didn’t rout Biden in the first debate, and his current focus on trying to recreate the 2016 dynamic of an email story taking over the election narrative shows that he’s unsuccessfully fighting the last war rather than the one he faces now. It’s always possible Trump could blow up Biden on October 22, but it could just as easily go the other way.

Are there any ‘unknown unknowns’ left that could change the election outcome?

The answer to this last question is obviously “unknowable,” but each passing day reduces the odds of a late October surprise that materially changes this very stable presidential race. There do remain the very real possibilities of Trump trying to claim victory on Election Night based on a transitory lead, and of Trump trying to stop the counting of mail ballots by legal and illegal means. But media and public awareness of the slow count that heavy voting by mail will produce is growing steadily, and the race needs to get closer before Trump can evade the danger of losing must-win states (e.g., Arizona and Florida) on Election Night.

All in all, the more we know as this long-awaited election comes near, the more it looks like the 45th president is going to need something between a small miracle and a large crime to gain a second term.

Top GOP official says cyber attackers stole $2.3 million from Republican Party of Wisconsin .
Chairman Andrew Hitt said the party discovered the attack Oct. 22 and by Friday realized $2.3 million was taken.Party Chairman Andrew Hitt said the loss was attributed to a phishing attack that has been reported to the FBI.

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