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Politics Analysis: The case that Democrats could win back the House keeps getting stronger

16:35  13 january  2018
16:35  13 january  2018 Source:   msn.com

How the Democrats are using the Republicans’ favorite move to preserve net neutrality

  How the Democrats are using the Republicans’ favorite move to preserve net neutrality When Trump-appointed FCC chairman Ajit Pai announced early this year that he would seek to roll back Obama-era net neutrality rules, most people thought that it would be game over. As predicted, the FCC voted to overturn net neutrality rules in November, 3-2 along party lines. But House Democrats have quietly put forward a bill using the Congressional Review Act, a little-known piece of legislation that up to now, had almost exclusively been used by Republicans to overturn federal rules put in place by the Obama administration.

Since then, Democrats think the stars have done just that. House Republicans are retiring from key districts, the federal courts are ruling in Democrats ' favor on redistricting cases that could reshape key

House Republicans are retiring from key districts, the federal courts are ruling in Democrats ' favor on redistricting cases that could reshape key swing-state maps and polls consistently show Americans favor a nameless Democrat over a nameless Republican.

person wearing a red shirt: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).  © Provided by WP Company LLC d/b/a The Washington Post House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).  In June, after House Democrats lost a hotly contested special election in Atlanta, they insisted that control of the chamber was within their reach in 2018. But the stars had to align just right.

Since then, Democrats think the stars have done just that.

House Republicans are retiring from key districts, the federal courts are ruling in Democrats' favor on redistricting cases that could reshape key swing-state maps and polls consistently show Americans favor a nameless Democrat over a nameless Republican. Plus, the mere fact that Donald Trump is president (not to mention historically unpopular at this point in his tenure) could help more Democrats get elected this fall.

10 House seats that could flip due to Republican retirements

  10 House seats that could flip due to Republican retirements Democrats searching for the 24 seats they need to flip to win control of the House in the 2018 midterms are increasingly seeing openings in districts where tough-to-beat Republicans are retiring. So far, 31 House Republicans are either retiring or running for other offices. That's more than double the 15 Democrats who are not running for re-election. Rep. Ed Royce, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, joined the list of retirees this week. Rep. Martha McSally is set to become the 32nd departure when she launches her Senate campaign Friday.

Democrats need to net 24 seats to take back control of the House . win - back - the - house - keeps - getting - stronger /?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_fix-dems-845am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.f8714b7ee4be.

Since then, Democrats think the stars have done just that. House Republicans are retiring from key districts, the federal courts are ruling in Democrats ’ favor on redistricting cases that could reshape key

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House Democrats' campaign arm now says they're targeting some 90 Republican seats in November's midterm elections. Democrats need to net 24 seats to take back control of the House.

Taking 90 seats may be overly optimistic, but Democrats have been cheering a week's worth of news that could set them up for a shot at taking back control of the House for the first time in nearly a decade. Here's what has them excited:

Top Republicans are retiring: One of the richest members of Congress. One of the most powerful Republicans on foreign affairs. One of the most politically ambitious Republican lawmakers.

Those are just three of nearly 30 House Republicans who have decided to retire. It's more retirements than anytime in the past decade. A number of the lawmakers leaving, as The Post's Mike DeBonis outlines, are committee chairmen, raising the question of: Why decide to leave at the height of your power?

'Wave versus the map': Democratic control of Senate moves from preposterous to possible

  'Wave versus the map': Democratic control of Senate moves from preposterous to possible Democrats have a narrow path to the majority. The debate is over just how narrow, and whether the forces working against the GOP and President Trump are setting the stage for a wave election.Not anymore. The debate has grown over Democrats' chances of capturing control of the agenda and holding power over Trump's nominations, including potential vacancies on the Supreme Court.

Politics Democrats Can Democrats Win Back The House In 2014? It’s not the first time we’ve been wrong about democrats being able to get their act together. How Democrats Will Take Back Congress.

Analysis Interpretation of the news based on evidence, including data, as well as anticipating how events might unfold based on past events. [ The case that Democrats could win back the House keeps getting stronger ].

Some of these departures could make it potentially significantly easier for Democrats. Rep. Darrell Issa (Calif.) is one of the richest members in Congress and could have spent unlimited money on a reelection campaign in an increasingly liberal San Diego-area district. But now that he won't be running for reelection, Democrats have a serious shot at flipping his seat.

Same with retiring House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Edward R. Royce (Calif.), who is leaving one of the most pro-Hillary Clinton Republican-held districts in the nation after holding it for more than 30 years.

Democrats are killing it in polling right now: If you had to choose right now between electing a Democrat or a Republican to Congress, even if you didn't know their names, who would you choose?

In a series of polls, voters say they'd choose a generic Democrat over a generic Republican by 13 points. That's more than double what election forecasters say Democrats need to be polling right now to take back the House. Republicans seized control of the House in 2010 when polling showed voters favored them in this same scenario by just six points.

Republicans are going to get blamed for a government shutdown. Bigly.

  Republicans are going to get blamed for a government shutdown. Bigly. If House Republicans can't find a way to wrangle their always-fractious conference to support legislation that would avoid a government shutdown by Friday night, they are likely to bear the brunt of the blame for the closure and pay a serious political price as well.The "why" is simple. Because a) the GOP controls all levers of power -- House, Senate and White House -- in Washington and b) average people are aware of a).

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a close up of a map © Provided by WP Company LLC d/b/a The Washington Post

Judges are ruling in their favor on redistricting: In 2010, Republicans won control of state legislatures and governor's mansions across the country, thus had the power to draw congressional and state legislative districts. But now courts are ordering Republicans to redraw more nonpartisan maps, just in time for the 2018 election.

A federal court just forced North Carolina lawmakers to redraw the lines of all 13 congressional districts to make them more nonpartisan. It was the first time that a federal court struck down a congressional map for partisan gerrymandering (as opposed to racial gerrymandering).

The Supreme Court will soon decide on a similar partisan redistricting case involving Wisconsin's state legislature, and another case in Pennsylvania is pending.

If this line of litigation is successful, Democrats could have an opening to challenge maps across the country in time for 2018.

a close up of a map © Provided by WP Company LLC d/b/a The Washington Post Republicans control Washington: This is a simple fact, but it shouldn't be overlooked with how it plays into voters' decisions this November.

Senate takes shutdown drama into final day

  Senate takes shutdown drama into final day The Senate adjourned Thursday night without resolving the fate of a House-passed funding bill, extending the drama about a possible government shutdown until the last possible day.Government funding will expire after 11:59 p.m.on Friday and SGovernment funding will expire after 11:59 p.m. on Friday and Senate leaders will only have 13 hours to negotiate a solution after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) adjourned the Senate without a deciding vote.

Analysis | The case that Democrats could win back the House keeps getting stronger . The ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee said he would hold House Speaker Paul D. Ryan responsible if the panel's Russia probe is shuttered.

I still think that was the case — Democrats weren’t yet in a position to take back the House last June. Democrats have two major ways to ensure the nomination of insider- backed candidates: a strong state party, and closed primaries that keep out unaffiliated voters.

Because Republicans control so much of government, they have less places to shift blame if what comes out of Washington is unpopular. And so far, Republicans' only/major legislative accomplishment, a tax plan, is unpopular — 52 percent of Americans disapprove, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

(Republicans are pretty sure they're on the right side of things. See: Walmart raising its starting hourly wage from $9 to $11 and giving credit to savings it expects from the new corporate tax plan.)

Republicans couldn't manage to repeal Obamacare last year, but they did undo a key part of it via the tax bill and by executive order. Health-care experts predict those actions could spike premiums for some people, putting Democrats in a position to blame Republicans for people's health care, too.

Even an executive order such as ocean drilling could endanger House Republicans. It's turning out to be unpopular among a bipartisan group of lawmakers, and many of the most vulnerable Republicans are trying to run for reelection in coastal states.

Gingrich on shutdown: Trump thinks he's winning .
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) said Sunday that President Trump and the Republican Party think they're winning the blame game for shutting down the government, after the Senate failed to reach an agreement on spending Friday night. Gingrich said both Sen. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and the Democratic Party had made a major mistake in opposing the Republican-backed spending bill over a legislative solution to extend amnesty to thousands of young undocumented immigrants facing deportation."This is not what the Democrats hoped for.

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