Politics: New poll shows Democrat leading in every Arizona Senate matchup - - PressFrom - US
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Politics New poll shows Democrat leading in every Arizona Senate matchup

19:11  19 april  2018
19:11  19 april  2018 Source:   vox.com

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a woman wearing a blue shirt: Kyrsten Sinema, the Democratic frontrunner in the 2018 Arizona Senate race. © Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call Kyrsten Sinema, the Democratic frontrunner in the 2018 Arizona Senate race.

If Democrats have any hope of retaking the Senate in 2018 while facing an unfavorable map, the Arizona Senate race is a must-win. According to a new survey, the top Democrat there has a real shot to flip retiring Sen. Jeff Flake’s seat in November: She is leading each of her potential Republican opponent in a two-way race.

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), the presumptive Democratic candidate, tops establishment favorite Rep. Martha McSally, conservative former state Sen. Kelli Ward and anti-immigrant Sheriff Joe Arpaio in a general election matchup, a new survey from ABC15 in Phoenix and OH Predictive Insights found.

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From the poll, one of the first to evaluate the general election landscape in the Grand Canyon State:

  • Sinema: 48 percent; McSally: 42 percent; 10 percent undecided
  • Sinema: 50 percent; Ward: 40 percent; 10 percent undecided
  • Sinema: 59 percent; Arpaio: 33 percent; 8 percent undecided

It’s just one poll, of course, and the election is many months away. But it seems to confirm what many politicos suspected: Democrats have a real chance to win in Arizona, where Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by less than four points in 2016. The appropriate caveats from FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten:

As for the Republican primary itself, which will take place in late August, the new ABC15 poll finds Ward in the lead with 36 percent, followed by McSally at 27 percent and Arpaio at 22 percent.

That is a little out of line with other surveys of the race, which have shown McSally in the lead, according to RealClearPolitics. That is one reason, as Enten notes, to take this new poll with at least a grain of salt.

Still, Sinema looks like a strong contender to replace Flake, who decided to step down rather than run for another term. The Cook Political Report rates the Arizona Senate race a toss-up, as does the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Democrats didn’t win in Arizona, but here’s why they’re celebrating anyway .
Democrats have outperformed expectations in six of six special congressional elections in the Trump era.Once again, Democrats overperformed in a special election in Trump country. They didn't win a special congressional election in Arizona on Tuesday to replace former GOP congressman Trent Franks, but they came surprisingly close.

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