Politics After Ohio’s special election, here are 12 districts House Democrats think they can win

22:51  09 august  2018
22:51  09 august  2018 Source:   msn.com

Ohio special election: What it will tell us about November

  Ohio special election: What it will tell us about November The Ohio special election in the 12th Congressional District is coming down to the wire. In the last major tea leaves before the 2018 midterms, an average of recent polls puts Republican Troy Balderson just ahead of Democrat Danny O'Connor in their bid to succeed Republican Pat Tiberi. In a number of ways, the battle between Balderson and O'Connor is a good illustration of what we'll see in the fall. Here are five reasons why:1. The power of President Donald TrumpA look at the most recent Monmouth University poll gives you an understanding of how important feelings toward the President are in this election.

There are two elections for Ohio ' s 12 th Congressional District in 2018. The first, a special election on August 7, 2018, will fill the seat left vacant by Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R- Ohio ). The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of Tiberi's term until January 3, 2019.

A special election for Ohio ' s 12 th congressional district was held August 7, 2018, following the resignation of Republican U.S. Representative Pat Tiberi.

Ohio 12th Democratic nominee Danny O'Connor thanks voters and campaign volunteers on Wednesday as votes are being counted. (Scott Olson/Getty Images) © Scott Olson/Getty Images Ohio 12th Democratic nominee Danny O'Connor thanks voters and campaign volunteers on Wednesday as votes are being counted. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

House Democrats are still incredulous that Tuesday’s congressional special election in a staunch Republican district in Ohio is too close to call.

Even if they don’t win it, Ohio’s 12th District underscores that the election hopes of the most optimistic Democrats are starting to look like reality: If they can come close to winning where they previously haven’t even been competitive, Democrats feel good about their chances of winning in other suburban districts that they have considered more within their reach. It’s exactly those suburban, Republican-leaning districts that will determine which party controls the majority in the House next year.

Columbus, Ohio, Is America’s Test Market

  Columbus, Ohio, Is America’s Test Market What clues for November will we find in Tuesday’s special election there?Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

Election 2018: This reliably Republican Ohio district may tell us early if there's a Democratic wave. Can Democrats flip reliably Republican districts to retake the U.S. House ? But winning Ohio ' s 12 th district won 't be easy for Democrats .

On March 13, Conor Lamb, a Democrat and former Marine, won a razor-thin upset in a special House election in southwestern Pennsylvania, in a district that Mr. Trump won by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016.

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TThe Fix touched base with several Democratic campaign operatives to get a better sense of where, after Tuesday, they feel increasingly confident they can win. These Republican-held districts go beyond the top 10 most competitive House races, which we’ve ranked here.

In Ohio: Ohio’s 12th wasn’t a usual battleground, but Democrats think they see a more traditional pickup opportunity in Ohio’s first district, a Cincinnati-area one that went for Trump by seven points. This week, Rep. Steve Chabot (R) told the Cincinnati Enquirer he’s “confident but not overconfident” and that “you’re a fool if you’re not preparing for the worst.”

A really big Democratic wave could crash outside Cleveland in the 14th District, which is more of a stretch for Democrats to pick up. But Rep. David Joyce (R) has notably voted against House Republicans' health-care repeal bill and has criticized Trump.

Washington state's primary results paint a grim picture for GOP

  Washington state's primary results paint a grim picture for GOP Results from the Washington state primary on Tuesday are another bad sign for Republicans. We already know that Democrats lead in the House polls, and Republicans have a lot more seats at risk. Republicans therefore are hoping that the polling and the race ratings are overstating their vulnerability. They may be. The outcome in Washington's primary however, suggest the opposite may be true. The polling and race ratings might be understating the Democrats' advantage. In other words, Democrats may actually be in slightly better shape than we think. Washington, like California, uses a top-two primary system.

We have mounting evidence that Democrats can compete in redder districts than previously thought possible. The Ohio 12 th special election on August 7 will be the next test. But first, the May 8 primary — which already sees Republicans courting disaster.

A special election for a House seat in Ohio will test the power of the rural vote against the kind of affluent, rapidly growing suburbs that Democrats need to win . Danny O’Connor, the Democratic candidate in Ohio ’ s 12 th Congressional District , speaking with Tami Halliday in New Albany on

In California: Democrats' path to the House majority goes through California’s Orange County suburbs. There are three competitive, Republican-held seats that encompass exactly the kind of voters Democrats hope to keep in their column: well-educated, wealthier, diverse voters who chose Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Two of these seats are open, California’s 49th District being vacated by Rep. Darrell Issa, and California’s 39th District being vacated by Rep. Edward R. Royce. Democrats are also trying to unseat Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a Trump ally on Russia, in the 48th District.

Protesters in Huntington Beach, Calif., in July. (EUGENE GARCIA/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock) © Eugene Garcia/Epa-Efe/Rex/Shutterstock/Eugene Garcia/Epa-Efe/Rex/Shutterstock Protesters in Huntington Beach, Calif., in July. (EUGENE GARCIA/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

In Texas: You might be surprised to see such a red state on this list, but one Democratic operative said they need to win one or both of competitive suburban districts here to have a real wave election.

Blue wave? Republicans say Democrats are overestimating their strength

  Blue wave? Republicans say Democrats are overestimating their strength Democrats are crowing about forcing the GOP to again defend solidly red territory - this time, Ohio's 12th congressional district. It's a sign, they say, of a sure blue wave that hands the left control of the House of Representatives in November. But they will have to do more than just make those contests competitive, Republican operatives say; they would have to start winning them. Load Error

Ohio voters have picked the major party nominees for the latest in a string of House special elections with implications for control of the chamber after November's midterms. Democratic Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor is projected to win Tuesday's primary for Ohio ' s 12 th District special

Republicans need to win nine senate races to keep a majority, and Democrats need to win 28 to take it away. A fourth, Cindy Hyde-Smith (Miss.), will run in a special election . Here is the full calendar of Senate and House elections coming this year.

The districts they’re talking about include Rep. John Abney Culberson’s (R) in the northwest Houston suburbs. He’s held it since 2000, but as the nonpartisan analysts at Cook Political Report wrote when they ranked it a toss-up, its voters are similar to those in recent special congressional elections where Democrats have done well: “wealthy, well-educated, and deeply skeptical of Trump.”

North of Dallas, one of the most powerful members of Congress, Rep. Pete Sessions (R), could be at risk of losing the 32nd District to a well-funded Democratic challenger who has never held office before.

House Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas). (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) © J. Scott Applewhite/AP House Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas). (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

In Washington: It got lost in the news about Ohio, but on the other side of the country Tuesday, Democrats had a great primary night in three Republican-held districts. There’s an open seat in the Seattle suburbs, Washington’s 8th District, where Republicans really like their candidate, state Sen. Dino Rossi. But Democrats did a double take at how many people on their side voted in the race’s top-two primary system, where all candidates regardless of party are on one ballot. “The turnout numbers were incredible,” said one operative. Washington’s mail-only ballot system means results are still being counted.

Dems see wider path to House after tight Ohio race

  Dems see wider path to House after tight Ohio race Democrats believe their performance in Tuesday's too-close-to-call special election for an Ohio congressional district is a strong sign that they can win back the House majority in November. The party argues that ther e are dozens of districts where Democrats should have a better chance of taking back seats this fall than in the Ohio district, which President Trump won by 11 points in 2016 and that has been in GOP hands for more than 30 years.Trump lost 23 districts to Hillary Clinton that are held by GOP lawmakers, and won another 45 districts represented by Republicans by a narrower margin than in Tuesday's battleground.

If margins shift toward Democrats , districts across the middle of this chart would be obvious ones to watch. As you might expect, a House Democrat won big in most areas where Clinton won big. Patrick J. Tiberi’ s Ohio seat will be filled by a special election on Aug.

Democrat Conor Lamb declared victory after the very close Pennsylvania special Congressional election . Here are our top takeaways from Tuesday’ s vote: Democrats can win back Trump voters.

Motivated Democratic voters have a number of operatives, and analysts are now saying some of Washington’s more rural Republican-held districts ― the 3rd District in the southwest corner of the state and 5th in Spokane ― should be moved to the top tier. It’s not lost on Democrats that a member of Republican leadership represents the 5th, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R).

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash). (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren) © Ted S. Warren/AP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash). (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

In Virginia: Rep. Barbara Comstock’s (R) reelection bid in the outer Washington, D.C., suburbs is already one of the nation’s most competitive races. But Democrats think they have a shot to go way beyond the D.C. area for success, specifically in Virginia’s 7th District outside Richmond, which Rep. Dave Brat (R) holds. Trump won Brat’s district in 2016, but he had the poorest showing of the past three GOP presidential candidates.

In Kansas: Outside Kansas City, Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) could be in trouble. On Tuesday, Democratic voters in the 3rd District nominated Sharice Davids, an openly gay attorney who is trying to be the first Native American woman in Congress. Her compelling life story coupled with how she won a hard-fought primary battle has some forecasters moving this race out of Republicans' favor to a toss-up.

Democrat Sharice Davids waves at her supporters Wednesday. (Shelly Yang/The Kansas City Star via AP) © Shelly Yang/AP Democrat Sharice Davids waves at her supporters Wednesday. (Shelly Yang/The Kansas City Star via AP)

It’s just one of many suburban districts where Democrats feel extremely confident three months before Election Day, more so after they got a boost this week in a district that wasn’t even on their map.

'State of the Race': Worst-case scenario for House GOP is 70-seat wipeout .
'State of the Race': Worst-case scenario for House GOP is 70-seat wipeoutDemocratic enthusiasm and a GOP malaise surrounding President Trump have set the stage for a potentially devastating midterm election for the House Republican majority.

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