Politics: Biden takes the Democrats' early lead, with signs of a generational showdown (POLL) - - PressFrom - US
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PoliticsBiden takes the Democrats' early lead, with signs of a generational showdown (POLL)

09:10  28 april  2019
09:10  28 april  2019 Source:   abcnews.go.com

Reuters/Ipsos poll: Minorities, older adults boost Biden atop 2020 Democratic field

Reuters/Ipsos poll: Minorities, older adults boost Biden atop 2020 Democratic field Former Vice President Joe Biden draws his strongest levels of support from minorities and older adults, according to a Reuters/Ipsos public poll.

Joe Biden enters as the early frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll , albeit with a decided tilt toward older voters that could define the party’s 2020 contest as a generational showdown .

Joe Biden enters as the early frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll , albeit with a decided tilt toward older voters that could define the party’s 2020 contest as a generational showdown .

Joe Biden enters as the early frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, albeit with a decided tilt toward older voters that could define the party’s 2020 contest as a generational showdown.

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Biden leads Trump by 6 points in first post-announcement poll Joe Biden leads President Trump by six points, according to the first poll published after the former vice president officially announced his candidacy Thursday. The April 25-26 Hill-HarrisX survey of 1,000 registered voters found that 43 percent said they would choose Biden while 37 percent said they would pick Trump. Fifteen percent of respondents said they were unsure and 5 percent said they would vote for another candidate. Biden's 6-point lead was outside the poll's 3.1 percent sampling margin of error.

(MORE: Biden takes the Democrats ' early lead , with signs of a generational showdown ). Back in January, Clyburn said that if Biden entered the Democratic field, "everybody The poll found that of Democrats and Democratic -leaning Independents nationwide, 17% backed Biden , compared to 11

(MORE: Biden takes the Democrats ' early lead , with signs of a generational showdown ). Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden gives a pep talk to Dallas County high school students during a campaign event at the SPARK! educational center in Dallas, Texas, May 29, 2019.

In an open-ended question, 17% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents back Biden, with 11% for Bernie Sanders, 5% for Pete Buttigieg, 4% apiece for Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke and Elizabeth Warren and 1 or 2% for Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar and non-candidates Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama.

See PDF for full results, charts and tables.

Much can change, as evidenced by the 35% who have no opinion, and it’s unsurprising that the two leaders are those with the broadest name recognition – a former vice president and the party’s 2016 runner-up. Long expected to run, Biden announced his candidacy last Thursday.

Biden takes the Democrats' early lead, with signs of a generational showdown (POLL)© Provided by ABC News Inc. 2020 Democratic Primary Vote Choice

There’s a striking generation gap between Biden, 76, and Sanders, 77, who built his insurgent 2016 campaign largely on support from young voters. Today Biden easily leads Sanders, 27-6%, among those age 50 and older, compared with a 9-15% race – Sanders ahead numerically, albeit not significantly – among those younger than 50. Biden is particularly weak among under-30s, with just 3% support vs. Sanders’ 13% (averaging the last two ABC/Post surveys for an adequate sample size).

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(MORE: Biden takes the Democrats ' early lead , with signs of a generational showdown ( POLL )). These numbers are reversed for the rest of the field. Notably, Harris is down 7 points in the view that she’s the most electable Democrat , dropping from 9 percent in July (after a well-received first debate

(MORE: Biden takes the Democrats ' early lead , with signs of a generational showdown ( POLL )). Preference in handling two of these issues is generally similar to candidate support overall. On health care, 27% of leaned Democrats pick Sanders as the candidate they trust most and 25% pick Biden

Biden takes the Democrats' early lead, with signs of a generational showdown (POLL)© Provided by ABC News Inc.

That said, age isn’t the only differentiator. As detailed below, Sanders trails Biden, in particular, among women, mainline Democrats (as opposed to Democratic-leaning independents), moderates, blacks, college graduates and urban residents. And the race goes 2-1 for Biden -- 19-10% -- when limited to registered voters in this survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.

Strategy and Electability

There are intra-party divisions among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents on strategy and electability. They split, 48-44%, on whether it’s better for the party to nominate a candidate who can best energize the Democratic base or who’s best positioned to win over independents, often the key swing voters in national elections. Leaned Democrats also divide, 47-39%, on whether they’d prefer a candidate who’s closest to them on the issues or who has the best chance of defeating Donald Trump.

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Biden ’s polling lead shaky ahead of 2020 decision. Biden takes the Democrats ' early lead , with Biden keeps telling us President Trump has shown us who he is by lying shamelessly along with It’s time for Biden —whose candidacy is facing a crisis—to show the voters who he really is and regain

There are signs of a disconnect between support for Mr. Biden in polls and excitement for his campaign on the ground in Iowa. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. campaigned in Urbandale, Iowa, on Tuesday. Voters repeatedly emphasized that their support for him was closely linked to early

Biden takes the Democrats' early lead, with signs of a generational showdown (POLL)© Provided by ABC News Inc. Democratic Priorities for 2020

The strategy question shows some differences in candidate choices. Among those who think it’s best to pick the candidate who can energize the party’s base, Biden leads Sanders by 18-7%. Among those more concerned with appealing to independents, the two are essentially even, 17-16%. (Buttigieg has 8% support among those focused on appealing to independents, vs. 3% among those more concerned with motivating the base.)

It’s a logical result; Sanders’ support in 2016 came from independents rather than Democrats by nearly a 2-1 margin.

Biden takes the Democrats' early lead, with signs of a generational showdown (POLL)© Provided by ABC News Inc.

There’s no difference on this question between liberal and moderate leaned Democrats, but there is by race: Nonwhites, by 53-39%, lean toward a focus on energizing the Democratic base, while whites split about evenly, 43-48%. (Nonwhites account for nearly half of all leaned Democrats, 48%, compared with 20% of leaned Republicans.)

Biden takes the Democrats' early lead, with signs of a generational showdown (POLL)© Provided by ABC News Inc.

For its part, the question of whether leaned Democrats prefer a candidate who’s closest to them on the issues or best able to defeat Trump does not substantially impact candidate preference. Biden has virtually identical support in these two groups, 17 and 18%, respectively; Sanders, 13 and 9%.

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(MORE: Biden takes the Democrats ' early lead , with signs of a generational showdown ( POLL )). Viewed another way, Biden and Sanders are essentially tied among leaned Democrats who focus on any of five top issues – health care, issues of special concern to women, immigration

(MORE: Biden takes the Democrats ' early lead , with signs of a generational showdown ( POLL )). Single Payer. Views on "Medicare for all" in health care As such, while the GOP appeals to concerns about the potential demise of private insurance, the Democrats may push back with arguments about

Biden takes the Democrats' early lead, with signs of a generational showdown (POLL)© Provided by ABC News Inc.

Groups

Among demographic groups, Biden has virtually identical support from women and men -- 16 and 18%, respectively -- regardless of reports by several women that he made them feel uncomfortable by the way he hugged or touched them, and criticism of his handling of the Clarence Thomas/Anita Hill hearings in 1991. Sanders, for his part, does a bit better with men than with women, 14 vs. 8%.

Sanders struggled to win support from nonwhites in 2016, losing them to Hillary Clinton, 71-28%, in primaries in which exit polls were conducted. Today Biden leads Sanders among nonwhites overall by 16-10%, including 19-3% among blacks (compared with a close 5-8% among Hispanics).

Sanders also struggled among mainline Democrats and political moderates, losing them to Clinton by 64-35% and 62-36%, respectively. Today Biden has twice Sanders’ support among mainline Democrats and moderates alike.

Biden does slightly better with college graduates than non-graduates, 22 vs. 14%, while Sanders runs essentially evenly in both groups, 12 and 10%. Among others, Warren does 8 percentage points better with graduates than non-graduates, and Buttigieg does 7 points better. Non-graduates, who tend to be less engaged politically, are far more apt than graduates to have no current preference.

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In another difference in support profiles, Biden has 18% backing in urban centers, compared with Sanders’ 7%.

Biden takes the Democrats' early lead, with signs of a generational showdown (POLL)© Provided by ABC News Inc.

Results given in this report are not restricted to registered voters, since there’s plenty of time to register before the caucus and primary season begins in Iowa next Feb. 3. Looking just at registered voters doesn’t make much difference in any case, but for optics: As noted, Biden goes to a 2-1 lead over Sanders, 19-10%.

Biden takes the Democrats' early lead, with signs of a generational showdown (POLL)© Provided by ABC News Inc. 2020 preference among leaned Democrats

Regardless, all these results require an important note of context: Early leaders sometimes are nomination winners, but not always. See, for example, Jeb Bush (2016) and Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani (both 2008). Indeed, in crowded Republican races, Ben Carson, Rand Paul and Scott Walker all polled competitively at points in the 2016 campaign, as did Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Michele Bachman and Sarah Palin in the 2012 race; all later faded. These are early days in the 2020 race – and if history provides any lesson, it’s that campaigns matter.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone April 22-25, 2019, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect, for the full sample. This analysis is based on results among 427 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, with an error margin of 5.5 points. Partisan divisions are 29-26-36 %, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Md. See details on the survey’s methodology here.

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