Politics: North Carolina special election: Democrats have a chance in a heavily Trump district - PressFrom - US
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PoliticsNorth Carolina special election: Democrats have a chance in a heavily Trump district

19:35  09 september  2019
19:35  09 september  2019 Source:   cnn.com

North Carolina closes early voting for key House race as Dorian batters state

North Carolina closes early voting for key House race as Dorian batters state North Carolina closed a number of early voting sites ahead of a critical House election next week as Hurricane Dorian pounded the state with heavy rains and strong winds.The storm comes just days before a special election in the state's 9th District, which will pit Democrat Dan McCready against Republican state Sen. Dan Bishop, in a race seen as neck-and-neck in what has traditionally been a GOP stronghold.The Sept. 10 contest is a redo of the November 2018 election after the results were tossed out because of widespread ballot fraud.

A special election will be held in 2019 to fill the vacancy in North Carolina 's 3rd congressional district in the United States House of Representatives for the remainder of the 116th United States Congress.

The election in the Ninth Congressional District on Tuesday will in many ways be the first test of the political He will face Dan Bishop in a do-over of last fall’s congressional election that was overturned after state This section of the state has been a reliable Republican stronghold. A Democrat has not

The seemingly never-ending election to represent North Carolina's 9th Congressional District will (probably) come to a close on Tuesday.

North Carolina special election: Democrats have a chance in a heavily Trump district© Getty Images/AP Democrat Dan McCready and Republican Dan Bishop

For those who don't recall, credible allegations of ballot fraud caused the State Board of Elections to order a new election in the district after the final tally found Republican Mark Harris ahead of Democrat Dan McCready by fewer than 1,000 votes.

Harris decided not to run again in the special election. Instead, McCready will face off against Republican Dan Bishop. The race looks like it could be close, which could foreshadow bad news for the Republicans in 2020.

Trump says Democrats are 'not big believers in religion' during North Carolina rally

Trump says Democrats are 'not big believers in religion' during North Carolina rally President Donald Trump cast Tuesday's special election in North Carolina and the 2020 presidential election as a fight for the status quo, describing Democrats as the "America-hating left." © Andrew Spear/Getty Images CINCINNATI, OH - AUGUST 01: President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at U.S. Bank Arena on August 1, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The president was critical of his Democratic rivals, condemning what he called "wasted money" that has contributed to blight in inner cities run by Democrats, according to published reports.

The special election could provide an early test of whether highly educated women voters in suburban areas will throw their support to Democrats in marginally Republican districts as they did in a number of House races in the 2018 midterm elections . North Carolina is one of a handful of states seen by

The special election could provide an early test of whether highly educated women voters in suburban areas will throw their support to Democrats in marginally Republican districts as they did in a number of House races in the 2018 midterm elections . North Carolina is one of a handful of states seen by

There hasn't been any non-partisan live interview polling of the district, but data that has been released to the public shows a close race. No poll released to the public has had either up by more than 4 points.

When you look back at polling miscues in special House elections, even an error of 13 points falls within the 95% error band. In other words, anything from a Bishop win by 13 points to a McCready win by 13 points shouldn't surprise us.

Republicans should be dominating this district. President Donald Trump won it by 12 points in 2016. Mitt Romney won it by 12 points in 2012. To give you some perspective of how unusual it would be for a Democrat to win such a Republican district, keep in mind that Democrats represent only four districts won by a larger margin.

N Carolina special election tests Trump, 2020 GOP prospects

N Carolina special election tests Trump, 2020 GOP prospects Republicans are hoping an eleventh-hour pep talk from President Donald Trump will help them win Tuesday's special congressional election in North Carolina. The race could shed light on Republicans' chances of retaking the U.S. House and Trump's reelection prospects in 2020. At a rally in Fayetteville on Monday night, Trump campaigned for conservative state Sen. Dan Bishop. Opposing Bishop is moderate Democrat Dan McCready, a former Marine who narrowly trailed in an election for the seat last year that was invalidated after evidence of election fraud surfaced.

Conor Lamb, a Democrat , narrowly won a House special election in a Pennsylvania district that President Trump won by 20 percentage points in It also emboldened Democrats to run maverick campaigns even in deep-red areas where Republicans remain bedeviled by Mr. Trump ’s unpopularity.

The special election in a congressional district roiled by ballot tampering allegations, explained. Democrats get a chance to win another House seat in North Carolina after a ballot tampering Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib criticizing President Donald Trump and calling for his

While some of the 9th district is in the suburbs of Charlotte, it's not like other suburban districts where Democrats have gained a lot of ground in the Trump era. About 34% of adults 25 years and older have a college degree in the district, which is about equal to the 32% who have one nationwide. The districts where Democrats have been doing better during the Trump administration (like those in Texas) tend to be much better educated than the nation as a whole.

One advantage McCready may have is that Democrats maintain an 8-point voter registration advantage in the district. As I noted before last year's special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district, feelings towards a president and partisan difference in voter registration seem to play a role in determining a person's House vote. Therefore, Republicans' strong presidential performances in North Carolina's 9 may undersell the chance McCready has, given the district has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

The Latest: GOP claims voter confusion in special election

The Latest: GOP claims voter confusion in special election North Carolina Republicans claim election officials in one county provided the wrong address for a voting precinct ahead of a hotly contested special congressional election. But state election officials say voters were notified of the address change weeks ago. 

Tuesday’s do-over election for a congressional seat marred by allegations of fraud last year, taking place in a Republican-leaning slice of North And it’s driving the election in North Carolina ’s 9th District , which Trump carried handily in 2016 but became a surprising 2018 swing seat amid broad

Trump will rally in Fayetteville to stump for Republican candidate Dan Bishop after the original 2018 election was voided over allegations of ballot fraud. The president will also be front and center at a rally in Fayetteville, North Carolina , on Monday, where Mr. Trump will stump for Bishop.

If McCready comes close to winning, this special election will be another one in which Democrats outperformed how Hillary Clinton did in 2016. You may recall Democrats did over 10 points better than Clinton in the average special congressional election in 2017 and 2018. This presaged them easily taking back the House in the 2018 midterms.

And let there be little doubt: Trump's name may not be on the ballot, but a lot of this election is about him. Bishop is using Trump heavily in his advertisements, and the President is holding a rally in the district on Monday night.

I would, however, be cautious about too much into any one special election. If Democrats do better than their 2016 baseline in many special elections, that is far more concerning for Republicans than if they outperform it in one. In the only other special congressional election this year, the result looked very similar to the 2016 presidential outcome.

Further, a look at history suggests that special elections may be less useful for forecasting presidential elections than midterm elections. Republicans romped in the 2015 and 2016 special House elections, while the 2016 presidential election was quite close.

Still, in this era in which feelings toward a president seem to be more determinative of vote choice than at any point in recent history, a Democratic victory or a close GOP win in a district Trump won by 12 in 2016 would be suggestive that Trump's brand is tarnished ahead of 2020.

The Latest: Pelosi swears in 2 North Carolina congressmen.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has sworn in two Republicans who won special elections in North Carolina last week. 

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